🇩🇪

Bundesliga

Heidenheim - Bayer 04 Leverkusen

03/21/2026, 02:30 PM

3 : 3
Expected Goals
Heidenheim
1.2
Total xG
3.3
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
2.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

11%

1:2

10%

0:2

8%

1:3

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
HEIB0L

Heidenheim

Defensive weakness (2.2 conceded vs 1.7 league avg)
+0.49
Standings disadvantage (pos 18 vs 6, 12 places gap)
-0.16
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
+0.02
Arijon Ibrahimovic not in squad (1 goals, 3 assists)
Julian Niehues not in squad (3 goals, 0 assists)
Jan Schöppner not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
Patrick Mainka not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
Eren Dinkçi not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
Hennes Behrens not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists)
100% of goal output missing (only 11% available)
Strong home record (1.4 vs 0.9 goals/match)

Bayer 04 Leverkusen

4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.17
Declining form (1.2 vs 1.8 season average)
-0.17
Standings advantage (pos 6 vs 18, 12 places gap)
+0.12
Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
-0.05
Alejandro Grimaldo not in squad (6 goals, 5 assists)
Ernest Poku not in squad (5 goals, 4 assists)
Christian Kofane not in squad (5 goals, 3 assists)
Aleix García not in squad (2 goals, 5 assists)
Edmond Tapsoba not in squad (4 goals, 2 assists)
Martin Terrier not in squad (4 goals, 1 assists)
Ibrahim Maza not in squad (2 goals, 3 assists)
Jarell Quansah not in squad (3 goals, 0 assists)
100% of goal output missing (only 0% available)

League

High-scoring league (3.1 goals/match)
+0.64
+0.64
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

20%

Draw

23%

Away Win

57%

Goals

Over 1.5

85%

Under 1.5

15%

Over 2.5

64%

Under 2.5

36%

Over 3.5

41%

Under 3.5

59%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

43%

Away or Draw

80%

No Draw

77%

Both Score

Yes

62%

No

38%

Key Factors
  • Heidenheim is missing key players such as Arijon Ibrahimovic (1G/3A), Julian Niehues (3G/0A), Jan Schöppner (1G/1A), Patrick Mainka (1G/1A), Eren Dinkçi (1G/1A), and Hennes Behrens (0G/2A), leaving only 11% of the usual starting XI's goal threat available
  • Bayer 04 Leverkusen is missing key players such as Alejandro Grimaldo (6G/5A), Ernest Poku (5G/4A), Christian Kofane (5G/3A), Aleix García (2G/5A), Edmond Tapsoba (4G/2A), Martin Terrier (4G/1A), Ibrahim Maza (2G/3A), and Jarell Quansah (3G/0A), leaving 0% of the usual starting XI's goal threat available
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a clear advantage for Bayer 04 Leverkusen with a win probability of 57% and 2.09 expected goals
Risk Factors
  • Heidenheim's tactical approach indicates few shots on target with only 2.2 shots on goal
  • Bayer 04 Leverkusen's goal production is currently slowing at an average of 1.2 goals, compared to their season average of 1.8
Overview

Heidenheim (18th place, 14 points) host Bayer 04 Leverkusen (6th place, 45 points) at the Voith-Arena

Bundesliga match on March 21, 2026, 3:30 PM

Heidenheim fights relegation, Leverkusen for a spot in international competition

Form

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Heidenheim shows a poor form with 'LDLLL' across all competitions

The team recorded 0 wins, 1 draw, and 4 losses in their last 5 games and has 3 consecutive losses

Bayer 04 Leverkusen has a form of 'WDDDL' across all competitions

The team achieved 1 win, 3 draws, and 1 loss in their last 5 matches

Statistics

Heidenheim scores an average of 0.92 goals per game and concedes 2.23 goals

In home games, Heidenheim scores 0.94 goals and concedes 1.94 goals

Bayer 04 Leverkusen scores an average of 1.88 goals per game and concedes 1.27 goals

In away games, Leverkusen scores 1.92 goals and concedes 1.75 goals

Heidenheim has not kept any clean sheets this season

Bayer 04 Leverkusen kept 7 clean sheets, with 1 of them being away

In 15 out of 26 Heidenheim games, both teams scored, and the same for Leverkusen in 15 out of 26 games

The Voith-Arena saw an average of 4.2 goals per game, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 4 out of 5 matches

Head-to-Head

In 5 head-to-head matches, Heidenheim recorded 0 wins, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 5 wins, and 0 draws

The goal difference of 4:18 clearly favors Leverkusen

The last encounter on November 8, 2025, ended with a 6-0 victory for Bayer 04 Leverkusen

Bayer 04 Leverkusen dominated recent encounters

Key Players

For Heidenheim, Marnon Busch is a relevant defender with an average rating of 6.7 in 22 season appearances

For Bayer 04 Leverkusen, goalkeeper Mark Flekken is notable with a seasonal average rating of 6.89 in 17 appearances and a rising form trend

Goalkeepers

Heidenheim completed 0 clean sheets this season

Mark Flekken of Bayer 04 Leverkusen achieved 7 clean sheets

Influences

The Voith-Arena averages 4.2 goals per game

In 3 out of 5 matches at the Voith-Arena, both teams scored, and 4 out of 5 matches ended with over 2.5 goals

Heidenheim scored an average of 0.94 goals at home and conceded 1.94 goals

Bayer 04 Leverkusen scored an average of 1.92 goals away and conceded 1.75 goals

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.