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Champions League

Arsenal - Sporting CP

04/15/2026, 07:00 PM

0 : 0
Expected Goals
Arsenal
1.8
Total xG
2.9
Sporting CP
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

2:1

10%

2:0

10%

3:1

6%

3:0

6%
What influences the xG?
ARSSC

Arsenal

Defensive strength (0.7 conceded vs 1.9 league avg)
-1.14
Attack strength (1.21x league average)
-0.32
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.25
Declining form (1.4 vs 2.2 season average)
-0.25
Small sample (5 matches) - regression to mean
+0.23
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 7, 6 places gap)
+0.05
Kai Havertz on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists)

Sporting CP

Defensive strength (0.8 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)
-0.49
Small sample (5 matches) - regression to mean
+0.32
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.8 goals/match)
+0.11
Standings disadvantage (pos 7 vs 1, 6 places gap)
-0.07
Weak away record (0.6 vs 2.4 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.68
+0.68
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

55%

Draw

26%

Away Win

20%

Goals

Over 1.5

80%

Under 1.5

21%

Over 2.5

55%

Under 2.5

45%

Over 3.5

32%

Under 3.5

68%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

80%

Away or Draw

45%

No Draw

74%

Both Score

Yes

56%

No

44%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Arsenal with a probability of 55%
  • Sporting CP demonstrates a strong away offense, averaging 2.54 goals per game
  • Arsenal's goal production shows a negative trend (1.4 recently compared to 2.2 season average)
Risk Factors
  • The mathematical model projects a 45% chance for Sporting CP to draw or win away
  • According to the model, the probability of both teams scoring is 56%, indicating conceded goals for Arsenal
  • Arsenal's goal production shows a negative trend, while Sporting CP demonstrates a positive trend
Overview

Arsenal (1st place, 24 points) host Sporting CP (7th place, 16 points) at Emirates Stadium. Champions League match on April 15, 2026, 8:00 PM. Arsenal are clear table leaders and aim to solidify their position

Form

Arsenal's form over the last five matches is WWLWL (3 wins, 2 losses), with their last game ending in a loss. Sporting CP shows WWWLW (4 wins, 1 loss) and won their last match. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Arsenal averages 1.94 goals scored and concedes 0.75 goals. At home: 1.89 goals scored, 0.58 goals conceded. Sporting CP is offensively strong (avg. 2.61 goals), defensively stable (avg. 0.61 goals conceded). Away: 2.54 goals scored, 0.85 goals conceded. Emirates Stadium: avg. 2.8 goals/game, 40% BTTS, 60% over 2.5 goals

Head-to-Head

There have been 2 head-to-head matches between these teams. Arsenal won both encounters. The last duel on April 7, 2026, ended in a 0-1 victory for Arsenal. In direct comparison, Sporting CP scored 1 goal and Arsenal scored 6 goals

Key Players

Arsenal's offense relies on Gabriel Martinelli (6G/2A, last 1 goal, 1 assist, declining form), Viktor Gyökeres (4G/2A, last 2 goals, stable form), and Declan Rice (1G/2A, last 1 goal, stable form). For Sporting CP, Francisco Trincão (4G/3A, last 2 goals, 1 assist, declining form), Luis Suårez (5G/2A, last 1 goal, declining form), and Geny Catamo (1G/2A, last 1 goal, rising form) are crucial

Goalkeepers

David Raya of Arsenal recorded 15 clean sheets this season. His average season rating is 7.19. Rui Silva of Sporting CP achieved 14 clean sheets. His average season rating is 6.93

Influences

Arsenal utilizes home advantage with avg. 1.89 goals scored and only avg. 0.58 goals conceded. Sporting CP is strong offensively away (avg. 2.54 goals), but more vulnerable (avg. 0.85 goals conceded). Emirates Stadium records avg. 2.8 goals/game. 40% of matches ended with BTTS, 60% with over 2.5 goals

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