Champions League
Real Madrid - FC Bayern München
04/07/2026, 07:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.7
3.6
1.8
1:2
8%2:1
8%2:2
7%1:3
5%3:1
5%What influences the xG?
Real Madrid
FC Bayern München
League
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
37%
Draw
24%
Away Win
39%
Goals
Over 1.5
88%
Under 1.5
12%
Over 2.5
69%
Under 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
48%
Under 3.5
52%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
61%
Away or Draw
63%
No Draw
76%
Both Score
Yes
70%
No
30%
Key Factors
- Slight favoritism for FC Bayern München according to mathematical analysis (39% win probability)
- High goal expectation in the match (model predicts 1.75 goals for Real Madrid and 1.81 for FC Bayern München)
- FC Bayern München recently shows strong offensive performance (avg 8.8 shots on target) with 68% possession
Risk Factors
- Real Madrid had only 3 days of rest since their last match
- FC Bayern München had only 3 days of rest since their last match
- Several absences for Real Madrid, including T. Courtois and F. Mendy
Overview
Real Madrid host FC Bayern München at the Estadio Santiago Bernabéu for a Champions League match on April 7, 2026, 9:00 PM
Real Madrid are in 9th place in the Champions League standings with 15 points
FC Bayern München are in 2nd place with 21 points and enter the match as slight favorites
Form
Real Madrid's form across all competitions is WWWWL
This indicates 4 wins and 1 loss in their last five matches
The last result was a loss
FC Bayern München's form is WDWWW
This corresponds to 4 wins and 1 draw from their last five matches
The team has won three consecutive games
Statistics
Real Madrid averages 2.13 goals scored per game and concedes 0.93 goals per game this season
In home games, they average 2.12 goals scored and 0.71 goals conceded
FC Bayern München is offensively very strong with 3.57 goals scored per game and concedes 0.96 goals
Away from home, FC Bayern München even averages 3.67 goals scored and 1.17 goals conceded
Both teams scored in 17 of 30 Real Madrid games and 18 of 28 FC Bayern München games
Over 2.5 goals occurred in 19 Real Madrid games and 27 FC Bayern München games
The Estadio Santiago Bernabéu recently registered 3.4 goals/game, with both teams scoring in 3 of 5 games and over 2.5 goals in 4 of 5 games
Head-to-Head
In 2 previous head-to-head matches between Real Madrid and FC Bayern München, Real Madrid secured 1 win
There has been 1 draw and no wins for FC Bayern München
Real Madrid scored a total of 4 goals, while FC Bayern München scored 3 goals
The last encounter on May 8, 2024, ended in a 2-1 victory for Real Madrid
Real Madrid has been more dominant in recent direct encounters
Key Players
For Real Madrid, Vinicius Junior (5 goals, 4 assists, avg rating 7.28, 4 goals and 1 assist in last 5 games) and Federico Valverde (3 goals, 4 assists, avg rating 7.38, 3 goals in last 5 games) are key performers
Kylian Mbappé is also crucial with 13 season goals and 1 assist at an avg rating of 8.18, though his form is declining
For FC Bayern München, Harry Kane stands out with 10 season goals and an avg rating of 7.88, scoring 5 goals in his last 5 games
Michael Olise shines with 3 goals and 5 assists and an avg rating of 7.81, contributing 1 goal and 2 assists in his last 5 games
Serge Gnabry showed stable form with 3 goals and 1 assist in his last 5 games
Goalkeepers
Andriy Lunin is the goalkeeper for Real Madrid and has featured in 2 season appearances
Real Madrid kept 11 clean sheets this season
Manuel Neuer is in goal for FC Bayern München and has made 7 season appearances
FC Bayern München recorded 10 clean sheets this season
Influences
Real Madrid benefits from home advantage at the Estadio Santiago Bernabéu
In home games, the team scores an average of 2.12 goals and concedes only 0.71 goals
The Estadio Santiago Bernabéu is a high-scoring arena with an average of 3.4 goals per game
In 60% of the last 5 games at the stadium, both teams scored, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 80% of games