Match report →
Paris Saint Germain – Arsenal1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Paris Saint Germain
1.20
Total xG
2.80
Arsenal
1.60
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Paris Saint Germain | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.68 | +0.68 |
| Defensive strength (0.7 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | −0.61 | |
| Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean | +0.53 | |
| Attack strength (1.38x league average) | +0.28 | |
| 4 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.15 | |
| Declining form (1.6 vs 2.1 season average) | −0.15 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 11 vs 1, 10 places gap) | −0.13 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 11, 10 places gap) | +0.08 | |
| Small sample (7 matches) - regression to mean | −0.06 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match) | +0.03 | |
| Viktor Gyökeres on the bench (5 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Eberechi Eze on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 21% of goal output missing (only 89% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1.7 vs 2.1 goals/match) |
Key factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a win probability of 45% for Arsenal
- Arsenal are in perfect form with 5 consecutive wins
- Paris Saint Germain shows a stable offensive performance, consistently scoring ~2.6 goals per game
Risks
- Arsenal's goal production recently showed a negative trend (1.6 goals per game compared to 2.1 season goals)
- The Puskás Aréna has recorded an average of only 1.0 goals per game in 3 matches
All probabilities
Result
Paris Saint Germain27%
Draw28%
Arsenal45%
Goals
Over 1.578%
Under 1.522%
Over 2.553%
Under 2.547%
Over 3.531%
Under 3.569%
Double chance
Paris Saint Germain or draw55%
Arsenal or draw73%
No draw72%
Both teams score
Yes57%
No43%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
1:2
9%
0:2
8%
2:1
7%
2:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Paris Saint Germain: first goal in 7 of 8 games (88%)
- Arsenal: first goal in 7 of 8 games (88%)
- Paris Saint Germain: 6 wins in 7 games with xG above 1.0 (86% win rate)
- Arsenal: 80% of xG value comes in the first half (last 8 games with xG data)
- Paris Saint Germain with Senny Mayulu: 13.5 goals/90 min. Without: 2.3 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)
Lineups
Paris Saint Germain 4-3-3 · Arsenal 4-2-3-1
Paris Saint Germain
- 39 M. Safonov
- 2 A. Hakimi Mouh
- 5 M. Aoás Corrêa
- 51 W. Pacho Tenorio
- 25 N. Mendes
- 87 J. Gonçalves Neves
- 17 V. Machado Ferreira
- 8 F. Ruiz Peña
- 14 D. Doue
- 10 O. Dembélé
- 7 K. Kvaratskhelia
Arsenal
- 1 D. Raya Martin
- 3 C. Mosquera
- 2 W. Saliba
- 6 G. dos Santos Magalhães
- 5 P. Hincapié Reyna
- 41 D. Rice
- 49 M. Lewis-Skelly
- 7 B. Saka
- 8 M. Ødegaard
- 19 L. Trossard
- 29 K. Havertz
Substitutes
- 27 P. Fernández Sarmiento
- 21 L. Hernández Pi
- 9 G. Ramos
- 29 B. Barcola
- 19 K. Lee
- 6 I. Zabarnyi
- 24 S. Mayulu
- 30 L. Chevalier
- 49 I. Mbaye
- 89 R. Bellucci Marin
- 4 L. Lopes Beraldo
- 33 W. Zaire Emery
- 9 G. de Jesus
- 13 K. Arrizabalaga Revuelta
- 56 M. Dowman
- 36 M. Zubimendi Ibáñez
- 16 C. Nørgaard
- 20 C. Madueke
- 10 E. Eze
- 14 V. Gyökeres
- 12 J. Timber
- 33 R. Calafiori
- 11 G. Martinelli Silva
- 23 M. Merino Zazón
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →