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Champions League

Paris Saint Germain - Arsenal

05/30/2026, 04:00 PM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
Paris Saint Germain
1.2
Total xG
2.8
Arsenal
1.6
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

1:2

9%

0:2

8%

2:1

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
PSGARS

Paris Saint Germain

Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean
+0.53
Standings disadvantage (pos 11 vs 1, 10 places gap)
-0.13
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match)
+0.03

Arsenal

Defensive strength (0.7 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)
-0.61
Attack strength (1.38x league average)
+0.28
4 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
-0.15
Declining form (1.6 vs 2.1 season average)
-0.15
Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 11, 10 places gap)
+0.08
Small sample (7 matches) - regression to mean
-0.06
Viktor Gyökeres on the bench (5 goals, 2 assists)
Eberechi Eze on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
21% of goal output missing (only 89% available)
Weak away record (1.7 vs 2.1 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.68
+0.68
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Paris Saint Germain: first goal in 7 of 8 games (88%)

  • 2
    Arsenal: first goal in 7 of 8 games (88%)

  • 3
    Paris Saint Germain: 6 wins in 7 games with xG above 1.0 (86% win rate)

  • 4
    Arsenal: 80% of xG value comes in the first half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 5
    Paris Saint Germain with Senny Mayulu: 13.5 goals/90 min. Without: 2.3 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

27%

Draw

28%

Away Win

45%

Goals

Over 1.5

78%

Under 1.5

22%

Over 2.5

53%

Under 2.5

47%

Over 3.5

31%

Under 3.5

69%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

55%

Away or Draw

73%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

57%

No

43%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a win probability of 45% for Arsenal
  • Arsenal are in perfect form with 5 consecutive wins
  • Paris Saint Germain shows a stable offensive performance, consistently scoring ~2.6 goals per game
Risk Factors
  • Arsenal's goal production recently showed a negative trend (1.6 goals per game compared to 2.1 season goals)
  • The Puskás Aréna has recorded an average of only 1.0 goals per game in 3 matches
Overview

Paris Saint Germain host Arsenal at the Puskás Aréna for the Champions League Final on May 30, 2026, 6:00 PM. Paris Saint Germain are in 11th place with 14 points, while Arsenal lead the table with 24 points. The match promises to be a decisive encounter between two top teams.

Form

Paris Saint Germain's recent form (WWWWD) shows 4 wins and 1 draw in their last 5 matches. Their last game was a 1-1 away draw against FC Bayern München. Before that, they secured a 5-4 home win against FC Bayern München and two 2-0 victories against Liverpool (away and home). W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss.

Arsenal (WWWWW) are in perfect form with 5 consecutive wins. The Gunners won their last games 2-1 away against Crystal Palace and 1-0 home against Burnley. They also beat West Ham United 1-0 away, Atlético Madrid 1-0 home, and Fulham 3-0 home.

Statistics

Paris Saint Germain scored an average of 2.18 goals per game and conceded 0.85 goals per game. They kept 18 clean sheets. Arsenal scored an average of 1.87 goals and conceded 0.71 goals per game, with 19 clean sheets. The mathematical analysis predicts 1.20 goals for Paris Saint Germain and 1.60 goals for Arsenal. The Puskás Aréna has seen an average of 1.0 total goals per game in 3 matches, with neither team scoring nor more than 2.5 goals occurring in any of these games.

Head-to-Head

In 5 head-to-head matches, Paris Saint Germain have 2 wins, Arsenal have 1 win, and there have been 2 draws. The goal difference is even at 6:6. Paris Saint Germain won the last encounter 2-1 at home on May 7, 2025. Paris Saint Germain have been dominant in recent direct duels.

Key Players

For Paris Saint Germain, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia stands out with 10 goals and 6 assists this season, holding an average rating of 7.72. Ousmane Dembélé also performed strongly with 7 goals and 2 assists and a rating of 7.24. Vitinha contributed 6 goals and 1 assist, with a rating of 7.57. Not nominated: Viktor Gyökeres (5G/2A), Eberechi Eze (1G/1A).

For Arsenal, Declan Rice is a key player with a season rating of 7.35 (1 goal, 2 assists). Bukayo Saka scored 3 goals and 2 assists with a rating of 7.21. Kai Havertz contributed 3 goals and 1 assist, with a rating of 7.17.

Goalkeepers

Paris Saint Germain's goalkeeper Matvey Safonov has a rating of 6.99 in 10 season appearances. The Paris Saint Germain team recorded 18 clean sheets. Arsenal's goalkeeper David Raya has a rating of 7.19 in 13 season appearances. Arsenal's team achieved a total of 19 clean sheets.

Influences

The Puskás Aréna has recorded an average of only 1.0 goals per game in 3 matches. The surface is grass.

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