Europa League
Aston Villa - Bologna
04/16/2026, 07:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.3
2.6
1.2
1:1
14%2:1
8%1:2
8%2:0
7%0:2
6%What influences the xG?
Aston Villa
Bologna
The Lab
- 1Aston Villa: First goal in 6 out of 8 games (75 %)
- 2Bologna: First goal in 6 out of 8 games (75 %)
- 3Aston Villa with John McGinn: 2.3 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 out of 8 games)
- 4Bologna with Remo Freuler: 2.0 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 out of 8 games)
- 5Aston Villa: Scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (3 out of 8 total)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
38%
Draw
30%
Away Win
33%
Goals
Over 1.5
75%
Under 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
48%
Under 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
26%
Under 3.5
74%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
67%
Away or Draw
62%
No Draw
70%
Both Score
Yes
54%
No
46%
Key Factors
- Pipeline prediction: Aston Villa is slightly favored with a win probability of 38%
- Historical dominance: Aston Villa has won all 3 head-to-head matches against Bologna, with a goal difference of 6:1
- Home strength: Aston Villa shows defensive stability at home, conceding an average of 0.88 goals per home game
Risk Factors
- Bologna recently shows offensive strength with an average of 5.6 shots on target and 1.8 goals per game in recent form
- The mathematical analysis predicts a high probability of 30% for a draw and 33% for an away win by Bologna, indicating a tight match
Overview
Aston Villa (2nd place, 21 points) host Bologna (10th place, 15 points) at Villa Park
Europa League match on April 16, 2026, 8:00 PM
Aston Villa aims to solidify its strong position in the Europa League
Bologna is fighting to catch up with the top ranks
Form
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Aston Villa's form in the last 5 games (all competitions): LWWWD
The team recorded 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss
Bologna's form in the last 5 games (all competitions): WLWLW
The team achieved 3 wins and 2 losses
Statistics
Aston Villa averages 1.34 goals scored and 1.19 goals conceded per season
At home, Aston Villa scores an average of 1.35 goals and concedes 0.88 goals
The team kept 9 clean sheets this season, with 6 at home
Bologna averages 1.31 goals scored and 1.16 goals conceded per season
Away, Bologna scores an average of 1.30 goals and concedes 0.95 goals
The team achieved 10 clean sheets this season, with 4 away
An average of 3.0 goals are scored per game at Villa Park
Both teams scored in 60% of games, and more than 2.5 goals were scored in 40% of games
Head-to-Head
In 3 head-to-head matches between Aston Villa and Bologna, Aston Villa won all 3 games
The goal difference of 6:1 clearly favors Aston Villa
The last encounter on April 9, 2026, saw Aston Villa win 3:1 away
Aston Villa dominated the recent direct meetings
Key Players
Aston Villa:
Ollie Watkins (Attacker) scored 3 goals and 1 assist this season, 3 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 games, form trend rising
Emiliano BuendĂa (Midfielder) scored 1 goal and 4 assists this season, 0 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 games, form trend stable
John McGinn (Midfielder) scored 3 goals and 0 assists this season, 1 goal and 0 assists in the last 5 games, form trend stable
Bologna:
Jonathan Rowe (Attacker) scored 4 goals and 2 assists this season, 3 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 games, form trend stable
Federico Bernardeschi (Attacker) scored 5 goals and 0 assists this season, 1 goal and 1 assist in the last 5 games, form trend declining
Santiago Castro (Attacker) scored 2 goals and 2 assists this season, 1 goal and 1 assist in the last 5 games, form trend stable
Goalkeepers
Aston Villa's goalkeeper Emiliano MartĂnez played in 7 season games, keeping 6 clean sheets at home
Bologna's goalkeeper Federico Ravaglia played in 4 season games, achieving 4 clean sheets away
Influences
Aston Villa shows a solid home performance with an average of 1.35 goals scored and 0.88 goals conceded per home game
Villa Park records an average of 3.0 goals per game
Both teams scored in 60% of games, and more than 2.5 goals were scored in 40%
The playing surface is grass