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Europa League

Sporting Braga - Real Betis

04/08/2026, 04:45 PM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
Sporting Braga
1.4
Total xG
2.3
Real Betis
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:0

12%

0:0

11%

2:0

9%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
SBRB

Sporting Braga

Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
-0.59
Small sample (7 matches) - regression to mean
+0.21
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
-0.14
Declining form (1.6 vs 2 season average)
-0.14
Rodrigo Zalazar not in squad (6 goals, 2 assists)
João Moutinho on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)

Real Betis

Small sample (5 matches) - regression to mean
+0.33
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.18
Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
+0.08
Antony on the bench (5 goals, 3 assists)
30% of goal output missing (only 77% available)
Weak away record (1 vs 1.8 goals/match)
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

45%

Draw

31%

Away Win

24%

Goals

Over 1.5

69%

Under 1.5

31%

Over 2.5

41%

Under 2.5

59%

Over 3.5

21%

Under 3.5

79%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

76%

Away or Draw

55%

No Draw

69%

Both Score

Yes

48%

No

52%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Sporting Braga with 45 % probability
  • Real Betis showed offensive strength in their last 5 games with an average of 6.4 shots on target
  • Sporting Braga exhibits a solid home record, scoring 2.0 goals per home game while conceding only 0.93 goals
Risk Factors
  • Both Sporting Braga and Real Betis show a negative recent form trend according to advanced statistics
  • Sporting Braga's recent goal production of 1.6 goals is below their season average of 2.1 goals
  • Real Betis' recent goal production of 1.5 goals is also lower than their season average of 1.8 goals
  • The mathematical model calculates a significant draw probability of 31 %
Overview

Sporting Braga (6th place, 17 points) host Real Betis (4th place, 17 points) at the Estádio Municipal de Braga

Europa League match on April 8, 2026, 6:45 PM

Both teams are level on points and are fighting for a better position in the league standings

Form

Sporting Braga's last 5 games show a form of DLWLW

This translates to 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses

Their last result was a 1-0 win against Moreirense

Real Betis shows a form of LDWLD

This translates to 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses

Their last result was a 0-0 draw against Espanyol

Sporting Braga's recent goal production has stalled at 1.6 goals, compared to their season average of 2.1 goals

Real Betis also shows a reduced goal production of 1.5 goals recently, against a season average of 1.8 goals

Statistics

Sporting Braga scores an average of 2.0 home goals and concedes 0.93 home goals per game

Real Betis scores an average of 1.5 away goals and concedes 1.75 goals per away game

The Estádio Municipal de Braga averages 3.8 total goals per game

In 60% of the last 5 matches at the stadium, both teams scored, and 100% ended with over 2.5 goals

Head-to-Head

The provided dataset does not list any previous head-to-head meetings between the two teams

Key Players

For Sporting Braga, Ricardo Horta (3 goals, 3 assists this season, 2 goals in last 5 games) and Gabri Martínez (5 goals, 1 assist this season, 1 goal in last 5 games) are important offensive players

Florian Grillitsch contributed 1 goal and 1 assist in 3 of 5 games

Not nominated are Rodrigo Zalazar (6G/2A) and João Moutinho (0G/2A)

For Real Betis, Abde Ezzalzouli (3 goals, 1 assist this season, 1 assist in last 5 games) and Cucho Hernández (2 goals, 1 assist this season, 1 goal, 1 assist in last 5 games) stand out

Aitor Ruibal showed rising form with 1 goal and 2 assists in the last 5 games

Not nominated is Antony (5G/3A)

Goalkeepers

Sporting Braga's goalkeeper Lukas Hornicek has achieved 10 clean sheets for his team in 15 season appearances

Real Betis' goalkeeper Pau López played in 5 season appearances with a total of 9 clean sheets for his team

Influences

The Estádio Municipal de Braga is a high-scoring venue with an average of 3.8 goals per game and 100% of matches featuring over 2.5 goals in the last 5 encounters

Sporting Braga is offensively strong and defensively stable at home, scoring 2.0 goals and conceding only 0.93 goals per game

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