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Europa League

Real Betis - Sporting Braga

04/16/2026, 07:00 PM

2 : 4
Expected Goals
Real Betis
1.2
Total xG
2.4
Sporting Braga
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

10%

0:1

9%

1:0

9%

1:2

8%
What influences the xG?
RBSB

Real Betis

Small sample (5 matches) - regression to mean
+0.29
Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
-0.24
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.11
Aitor Ruibal on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)

Sporting Braga

Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
-0.31
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
-0.12
Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean
+0.10
Attack strength (1.27x league average)
-0.07
JoĂŁo Moutinho on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Sporting Braga: First goal in 6 of 8 games (75 %)

  • 2
    Real Betis with Natan: 1.4 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Sporting Braga with Diego Rodrigues: 3.6 goals/90 min. Without: 1.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Real Betis: Scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

  • 5
    Real Betis: 66 % of the xG value falls in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

34%

Draw

31%

Away Win

35%

Goals

Over 1.5

72%

Under 1.5

28%

Over 2.5

44%

Under 2.5

56%

Over 3.5

23%

Under 3.5

77%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

65%

Away or Draw

66%

No Draw

69%

Both Score

Yes

51%

No

49%

Key Factors
  • The prediction model indicates an extremely close match with probabilities for home win (34%), draw (31%), and away win (35%)
  • Sporting Braga is in better form with 3 wins in their last 5 games, while Real Betis recently drew three times in a row
  • Sporting Braga shows a significantly higher average goal production this season (1.96 goals per game) than Real Betis (1.45 goals per game)
Risk Factors
  • Limited data available for duel statistics in the last 5 matches for both teams
  • Sporting Braga's goal production recently stalled at 1.6 goals, compared to their season average of 2.0 goals
Overview

Real Betis (4th place, 17 points) host Sporting Braga (6th place, 17 points) in the Europa League on April 16, 2026, 9:00 PM

Both teams are level on points in the table and are fighting for a good starting position

Form

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Real Betis shows a form of WLDDD across all competitions

The home team achieved 1 win, 3 draws, and 1 loss in the last five games

Real Betis has registered three consecutive draws recently

Sporting Braga shows a form of WLWDW in all competitions

The away team recorded 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in their last five matches

Sporting Braga won their last game

Statistics

Real Betis scores an average of 1.45 goals per game this season and concedes 1.23 goals

In home games, the average is 1.44 goals scored and 0.89 goals conceded per match

Sporting Braga shows stronger offense with an average of 1.96 goals per game and a stable defense with 0.96 goals conceded

Away from home, Sporting Braga scores an average of 2.0 goals and concedes 1.08 goals

According to the description of advanced statistics, Real Betis consistently scores around 1.8 goals per game

Sporting Braga's goal production has recently stalled at 1.6 goals, while their season average is 2.0, according to the description

The prediction model expects over 1.5 goals in the match with a 72% probability

The probability that both teams score is 51% according to the model

Head-to-Head

Real Betis and Sporting Braga have met once before

This sole head-to-head match ended in a 1:1 draw on April 8, 2026

The historical record between the two teams is even, with 1 goal scored by each

Key Players

For Real Betis, the following players are notable: Antony (Attacker) scored 5 goals and 3 assists this season with a 'declining' form trend

Cucho HernĂĄndez (Attacker) contributed 3 goals and 1 assist this season with a 'stable' form trend

Abde Ezzalzouli (Attacker) has 3 goals and 1 assist this season with a 'stable' form trend

Not nominated for Real Betis: Aitor Ruibal (1G/1A)

For Sporting Braga, the following players are to be observed: Gabri MartĂ­nez (Attacker) scored 5 goals and 1 assist this season with a 'declining' form trend

Ricardo Horta (Attacker) contributed 3 goals and 3 assists this season with a 'declining' form trend

Pau VĂ­ctor (Attacker) has 3 goals and 1 assist this season with a 'stable' form trend

Not nominated for Sporting Braga: JoĂŁo Moutinho (0G/2A)

Goalkeepers

Real Betis' goalkeeper, Pau LĂłpez, is nominated and recently showed an average rating of 6.82

Real Betis achieved 9 clean sheets this season

For Sporting Braga, Lukas Hornicek is nominated and recently showed an average rating of 6.91

Sporting Braga has recorded 11 clean sheets this season

Influences

Real Betis showed a solid performance in home games with an average of 1.44 goals scored and 0.89 goals conceded

Sporting Braga scored an average of 2.0 goals away from home and conceded 1.08 goals, indicating a strong away record

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