Europa League
Celta de Vigo - SC Freiburg
04/16/2026, 04:45 PM
Expected Goals
1.1
2.3
1.3
1:1
15%0:0
12%0:1
11%1:0
9%1:2
8%What influences the xG?
Celta de Vigo
SC Freiburg
The Lab
- 1Celta de Vigo with Hugo Sotelo: 2.6 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 matches)
- 2SC Freiburg with Philipp Lienhart: 6.0 goals/90 min. Without: 1.0 goals/90 min (5 of 8 matches)
- 3Celta de Vigo: 4 consecutive matches with 3+ goals (last 8 matches)
- 4SC Freiburg: 4 consecutive matches with 3+ goals (last 8 matches)
- 5SC Freiburg: Scored only after the break in 3 of 8 matches
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
30%
Draw
32%
Away Win
39%
Goals
Over 1.5
69%
Under 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
41%
Under 2.5
59%
Over 3.5
20%
Under 3.5
80%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
61%
Away or Draw
71%
No Draw
68%
Both Score
Yes
48%
No
52%
Key Factors
- Critical offensive weakening: SC Freiburg only has 40% of their usual goal production available
- Mathematical prediction: SC Freiburg is seen as the favorite with a 39% win probability
- Form trend: Freiburg shows a strong run with 4 wins in 5 games, while Celta de Vigo recently had two consecutive losses
Risk Factors
- SC Freiburg concedes an average of 2.55 goals per away game
- IonuÈ Radu, Celta de Vigo's goalkeeper, shows declining form with a recent rating of 6.22
Overview
Celta de Vigo (16th place, 13 points) host SC Freiburg (7th place, 17 points) at Estadio de BalaĂdos
Europa League match on April 16, 2026, 6:45 PM
The mathematical analysis sees SC Freiburg as favorites with a 39% win probability
Form
Celta de Vigo's form across all competitions is WLWLL
The team recorded 2 wins and 3 losses in their last five games
They also have two consecutive losses
SC Freiburg's form is WWLWW
The team achieved 4 wins and 1 loss in their last five matches
Freiburg celebrated two consecutive wins
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Celta de Vigo scores an average of 1.42 goals and concedes 1.29 goals per game this season
At home, they scored 1.44 goals and conceded 1.5 goals
SC Freiburg averaged 1.45 goals scored and 1.62 goals conceded this season
Away from home, Freiburg conceded an average of 2.55 goals per game while scoring 1.45 goals
Estadio de BalaĂdos has seen an average of 3.2 total goals per game in the last 5 matches
Both teams scored in 3 of 5 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 3 of 5 games
Head-to-Head
There has only been 1 head-to-head match between Celta de Vigo and SC Freiburg
SC Freiburg won this encounter 3-0 on April 9, 2026
Freiburg scored 3 goals, while Celta de Vigo conceded 0 goals
The away team was dominant in this fixture
Key Players
For Celta de Vigo, Ferran JutglĂ (Attacker) shows rising form with 3 goals and 1 assist in 5 games with a rating of 7.21
Ilaix Moriba (Midfielder) is also in rising form with 1 goal and 1 assist in 5 games with a rating of 7.13
Javi Rueda (Defender) scored 1 goal in 3 games with a rating of 6.79, but shows declining form
For SC Freiburg, Matthias Ginter (Defender) is in stable form with 2 goals and 2 assists in 5 games with a rating of 7.31
Vincenzo Grifo (Midfielder) has stable form with 2 goals and 1 assist in 4 matches with a rating of 7.10
Igor Matanovic (Attacker) shows stable form with 1 goal and 1 assist in 3 games with a rating of 7.04
Goalkeepers
IonuÈ Radu, Celta de Vigo's goalkeeper, achieved 8 clean sheets this season
His season rating is 6.58, recently 6.22 with declining form
Noah Atubolu of SC Freiburg recorded 6 clean sheets
His season rating is 6.88, recently 6.90 with stable form
Influences
Celta de Vigo scored an average of 1.44 goals and conceded 1.5 goals per home game
Estadio de BalaĂdos is known for high-scoring matches with an average of 3.2 goals per game in the last five fixtures
Both teams scored in 3 of 5 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 3 of 5 games