đŸ‡ȘđŸ‡ș

Europa League

SC Freiburg - Celta de Vigo

04/09/2026, 07:00 PM

3 : 0
Expected Goals
SC Freiburg
1.7
Total xG
2.7
Celta de Vigo
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:0

10%

2:1

10%

1:2

6%

3:0

6%
What influences the xG?
SFCDV

SC Freiburg

Attack strength (1.55x league average)
+0.27
Small sample (5 matches) - regression to mean
-0.16
Standings advantage (pos 7 vs 16, 9 places gap)
+0.07
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.06
Strong home record (2.3 vs 1.6 goals/match)
Full strength squad available

Celta de Vigo

3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
+0.11
Rising form (2 vs 1.6 season average)
+0.11
Standings disadvantage (pos 16 vs 7, 9 places gap)
-0.10
Small sample (6 matches) - regression to mean
+0.10
Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
+0.05
Pablo DurĂĄn on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists)
Weak away record (1.2 vs 1.6 goals/match)
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

52%

Draw

27%

Away Win

21%

Goals

Over 1.5

76%

Under 1.5

24%

Over 2.5

50%

Under 2.5

50%

Over 3.5

28%

Under 3.5

72%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

79%

Away or Draw

48%

No Draw

73%

Both Score

Yes

52%

No

48%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for SC Freiburg with 52% probability
  • CRITICAL: Only 34% of SC Freiburg's goal production is available
  • Europa-Park Stadion is known for high-scoring games, averaging 4.2 goals per match with 80% Over 2.5 in the last 5 games
Risk Factors
  • Limited data: No historical head-to-head matches are available between the teams
  • Despite positive trends from Advanced Stats, SC Freiburg's form (LLWWL) shows some inconsistency
  • Celta de Vigo conceded an average of 1.6 goals in recent matches, which is above their season average of 1.23
Overview

SC Freiburg (7th place, 17 points) host Celta de Vigo (16th place, 13 points) at Europa-Park Stadion

Europa League match on April 9, 2026, 9:00 PM

Freiburg aims to consolidate their table position, while Celta needs points to catch up

Form

SC Freiburg's form across all competitions is LLWWL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

In their last 5 matches, the team recorded 2 wins and 3 losses

The most recent game ended in a 2-3 loss against FC Bayern MĂŒnchen

Celta de Vigo's form across all competitions is DDWLW

The team achieved 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss in their last 5 matches

The most recent game ended in a 3-2 win against Valencia

Statistics

SC Freiburg scored an average of 1.46 goals per game this season and conceded 1.68 goals per game

At home, Freiburg scored an average of 1.44 goals and conceded 1.06 goals per home match

Celta de Vigo scored an average of 1.47 goals per game this season and conceded 1.23 goals per game

Away, Celta scored an average of 1.5 goals and conceded 1.14 goals per away match

Europa-Park Stadion has averaged 4.2 goals per match in the last 5 games

Both teams scored in 4 out of 5 of these matches, and 4 out of 5 had over 2.5 goals

Head-to-Head

The provided dataset does not list any previous head-to-head matches between SC Freiburg and Celta de Vigo

Therefore, an analysis of historical encounters is not possible

Key Players

Igor Matanovic (SC Freiburg) shows rising form with 4 goals in 3 games

He scored 2 goals across the season

Vincenzo Grifo (SC Freiburg) contributed 3 goals and 2 assists this season

Yuito Suzuki (SC Freiburg) contributed 1 goal and 1 assist in 5 games

Ferran JutglĂ  (Celta de Vigo) is in rising form with 4 goals and 1 assist in 5 games

Williot Swedberg (Celta de Vigo) scored 4 goals and 3 assists this season

Ilaix Moriba (Celta de Vigo) contributed 1 goal and 1 assist in 5 games

Goalkeepers

Noah Atubolu is the goalkeeper for SC Freiburg

He has kept 5 clean sheets this season, 2 of which were in home matches

Ionuț Radu is the goalkeeper for Celta de Vigo

He kept 8 clean sheets this season, 5 of which were in away matches

Influences

Europa-Park Stadion is known for high-scoring games, with an average of 4.2 goals per match in the last 5 games

The home team, SC Freiburg, scores an average of 1.44 goals and concedes 1.06 goals per home game

Celta de Vigo scored an average of 1.5 goals away and conceded 1.14 goals per away game

No weather data is available

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.