Europa League
SC Freiburg - Celta de Vigo
04/09/2026, 07:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.7
2.7
1.0
1:1
13%2:0
10%2:1
10%1:2
6%3:0
6%What influences the xG?
SC Freiburg
Celta de Vigo
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
52%
Draw
27%
Away Win
21%
Goals
Over 1.5
76%
Under 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
50%
Under 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
28%
Under 3.5
72%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
79%
Away or Draw
48%
No Draw
73%
Both Score
Yes
52%
No
48%
Key Factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for SC Freiburg with 52% probability
- CRITICAL: Only 34% of SC Freiburg's goal production is available
- Europa-Park Stadion is known for high-scoring games, averaging 4.2 goals per match with 80% Over 2.5 in the last 5 games
Risk Factors
- Limited data: No historical head-to-head matches are available between the teams
- Despite positive trends from Advanced Stats, SC Freiburg's form (LLWWL) shows some inconsistency
- Celta de Vigo conceded an average of 1.6 goals in recent matches, which is above their season average of 1.23
Overview
SC Freiburg (7th place, 17 points) host Celta de Vigo (16th place, 13 points) at Europa-Park Stadion
Europa League match on April 9, 2026, 9:00 PM
Freiburg aims to consolidate their table position, while Celta needs points to catch up
Form
SC Freiburg's form across all competitions is LLWWL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
In their last 5 matches, the team recorded 2 wins and 3 losses
The most recent game ended in a 2-3 loss against FC Bayern MĂŒnchen
Celta de Vigo's form across all competitions is DDWLW
The team achieved 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss in their last 5 matches
The most recent game ended in a 3-2 win against Valencia
Statistics
SC Freiburg scored an average of 1.46 goals per game this season and conceded 1.68 goals per game
At home, Freiburg scored an average of 1.44 goals and conceded 1.06 goals per home match
Celta de Vigo scored an average of 1.47 goals per game this season and conceded 1.23 goals per game
Away, Celta scored an average of 1.5 goals and conceded 1.14 goals per away match
Europa-Park Stadion has averaged 4.2 goals per match in the last 5 games
Both teams scored in 4 out of 5 of these matches, and 4 out of 5 had over 2.5 goals
Head-to-Head
The provided dataset does not list any previous head-to-head matches between SC Freiburg and Celta de Vigo
Therefore, an analysis of historical encounters is not possible
Key Players
Igor Matanovic (SC Freiburg) shows rising form with 4 goals in 3 games
He scored 2 goals across the season
Vincenzo Grifo (SC Freiburg) contributed 3 goals and 2 assists this season
Yuito Suzuki (SC Freiburg) contributed 1 goal and 1 assist in 5 games
Ferran JutglĂ (Celta de Vigo) is in rising form with 4 goals and 1 assist in 5 games
Williot Swedberg (Celta de Vigo) scored 4 goals and 3 assists this season
Ilaix Moriba (Celta de Vigo) contributed 1 goal and 1 assist in 5 games
Goalkeepers
Noah Atubolu is the goalkeeper for SC Freiburg
He has kept 5 clean sheets this season, 2 of which were in home matches
IonuÈ Radu is the goalkeeper for Celta de Vigo
He kept 8 clean sheets this season, 5 of which were in away matches
Influences
Europa-Park Stadion is known for high-scoring games, with an average of 4.2 goals per match in the last 5 games
The home team, SC Freiburg, scores an average of 1.44 goals and concedes 1.06 goals per home game
Celta de Vigo scored an average of 1.5 goals away and conceded 1.14 goals per away game
No weather data is available