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Europa League

Nottingham Forest - Porto

04/16/2026, 07:00 PM

1 : 0
Expected Goals
Nottingham Forest
1.2
Total xG
2.7
Porto
1.5
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:2

9%

0:2

7%

2:1

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
NFPOR

Nottingham Forest

Small sample (6 matches) - regression to mean
+0.35
Rising form (1.8 vs 1.4 season average)
+0.12
Standings disadvantage (pos 13 vs 5, 8 places gap)
-0.11
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
+0.01
Igor Jesus on the bench (7 goals, 1 assists)
Nikola Milenković on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
42% of goal output missing (only 68% available)
Strong home record (1.9 vs 1.4 goals/match)

Porto

Defensive strength (0.6 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
-0.60
Attack strength (1.3x league average)
+0.41
Small sample (5 matches) - regression to mean
-0.17
Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 13, 8 places gap)
+0.06
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
+0.01
PepĂȘ on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists)
Victor Froholdt on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
Weak away record (1.5 vs 2 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Porto: First goal in 7 out of 8 games (88 %)

  • 2
    Nottingham Forest with Ryan Yates : 3.2 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 out of 8 games)

  • 3
    Porto: 6 out of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes

  • 4
    Porto with Rodrigo Mora: 6.1 goals/90 min. Without: 1.7 goals/90 min (5 out of 8 games)

  • 5
    Porto: 71 % of the xG value falls in the first half (last 7 games with xG data)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

29%

Draw

29%

Away Win

42%

Goals

Over 1.5

77%

Under 1.5

23%

Over 2.5

51%

Under 2.5

49%

Over 3.5

29%

Under 3.5

71%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

58%

Away or Draw

71%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

56%

No

44%

Key Factors
  • Porto's strong season record (2.03 goals/game, 0.48 goals conceded/game) indicates clear superiority
  • The mathematical analysis sees Porto as the favorite with a 42% win probability
  • Nottingham Forest's current form with 2 wins and 3 draws in the last 5 matches shows a positive trend
Risk Factors
  • Igor Jesus (7G/1A) and Nikola Milenković (1G/1A) are missing for Nottingham Forest, with only 68% of the starting eleven's seasonal goal threat available
  • Porto has not won any of the two head-to-head matches against Nottingham Forest (1 loss, 1 draw)
  • Porto conceded an average of 1.0 goals in recent matches, compared to the season average of 0.59
Overview

Nottingham Forest (13th place, 14 points) host Porto (5th place, 17 points) at The City Ground

Europa League match on April 16, 2026, 8:00 PM

The mathematical analysis sees Porto as the favorite with a 42% win probability

Nottingham Forest is in the mid-table, while Porto competes for the top spots

Form

Nottingham Forest shows a form of DWWDD across all competitions

This corresponds to 2 wins and 3 draws in the last 5 matches

The last result was a draw, and the team has 2 consecutive draws

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Porto has a form of WWDDW across all competitions

This includes 3 wins and 2 draws in the last 5 matches

Their last game ended with a win

Statistics

Nottingham Forest averages 1.00 goals per game and concedes 1.38 goals per game this season

Nottingham Forest's home record shows 1.00 goals scored and 1.43 goals conceded per home game

Porto is significantly stronger offensively with an average of 2.03 goals per game and has a robust defense with only 0.48 goals conceded

Porto's away record shows 2.00 goals scored and 0.53 goals conceded per away game

At The City Ground, an average of 1.4 goals per game were scored in the last 5 matches

Both teams scored in 40% of the matches, and 20% of the matches ended with over 2.5 goals

Head-to-Head

In 2 head-to-head matches, Nottingham Forest has won 1 game, Porto none

There has been 1 draw between the teams

Nottingham Forest scored a total of 3 goals, Porto 1 goal

The last encounter on April 9, 2026, ended in a 1:1 draw

Historically, the home team dominated these encounters

Key Players

For Nottingham Forest, Morgan Gibbs-White, NicolĂĄs DomĂ­nguez, and Neco Williams are key players

Morgan Gibbs-White scored 1 goal in the last 367 minutes with stable form and a season average rating of 6.93

NicolĂĄs DomĂ­nguez recently recorded 1 goal in 235 minutes with stable form and a season average rating of 7.03

Neco Williams contributed 1 goal and 2 assists in the last 359 minutes with rising form and a season average rating of 6.96

For Porto, William Gomes, Gabri Veiga, and Borja Sainz are crucial players

William Gomes recently shined with 4 goals in 201 minutes with rising form and a season average rating of 6.83

Gabri Veiga contributed 1 goal and 2 assists in the last 262 minutes with stable form and a season average rating of 7.19

Borja Sainz provided 1 assist in the last 170 minutes with stable form and a season average rating of 6.89

Goalkeepers

Stefan Ortega is the goalkeeper for Nottingham Forest

His team has recorded 8 clean sheets this season

Diogo Costa is in goal for Porto

Porto has managed an impressive 18 clean sheets this season

Influences

Nottingham Forest scored an average of 1.00 goals and conceded 1.43 goals per home game in their own stadium

The City Ground recorded an average of 1.4 goals per game in the last 5 matches

Both teams scored in 40% of the matches, and 20% ended with over 2.5 goals

The playing surface is grass

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