🇪🇺

Europa League

SC Freiburg - Aston Villa

05/20/2026, 07:00 PM

0 : 3
Expected Goals
SC Freiburg
1.4
Total xG
2.8
Aston Villa
1.4
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:2

9%

2:1

8%

0:2

6%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
SFAV

SC Freiburg

Small sample (7 matches) - regression to mean
+0.18
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)
+0.15
Rising form (2.2 vs 1.7 season average)
+0.15
Y. Suzuki not in squad (4 goals, 2 assists)
Strong home record (2.1 vs 1.7 goals/match)

Aston Villa

Attack strength (1.2x league average)
+0.40
Small sample (7 matches) - regression to mean
-0.15
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)
+0.15
Rising form (2.2 vs 1.7 season average)
+0.15
Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
+0.02
Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.7 goals/match)
Full strength squad available
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    SC Freiburg with Jordy Makengo: 4 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    SC Freiburg: 4 wins in 5 games with xG above 1.0 (80% win rate)

  • 3
    Aston Villa: 4 wins in 5 games with xG above 1.0 (80% win rate)

  • 4
    SC Freiburg: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 5
    Aston Villa: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

34%

Draw

28%

Away Win

37%

Goals

Over 1.5

78%

Under 1.5

22%

Over 2.5

53%

Under 2.5

47%

Over 3.5

30%

Under 3.5

70%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

63%

Away or Draw

66%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

58%

No

42%

Key Factors
  • Freiburg's offense is critically weakened by the absence of Y. Suzuki (4G/2A), leaving only 41% of the seasonal goal threat available
  • Aston Villa's offense is also weakened, with only 52% of the seasonal goal production available
  • Both teams show a positive form trend according to Advanced Stats, scoring more frequently recently than their season average
Risk Factors
  • Limited data available for head-to-head encounters
Overview

SC Freiburg (7th place, 17 points) faces Aston Villa (2nd place, 21 points) in the Europa League

The match takes place on May 20, 2026, 8:00 PM at Beşiktaş Park

Both teams are high in the league standings, indicating an important encounter

Form

SC Freiburg's form across all competitions is LDWLW (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses)

Their last outing was a win

Aston Villa has a form of LLWDW (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses)

Their last match also ended in a win

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

SC Freiburg scored an average of 1.5 goals per game this season and conceded 1.68 goals

At home, these values are 1.5 goals scored and 1.0 goal conceded per game

Aston Villa averaged 1.46 goals per game and conceded 1.3 goals

Away from home, Aston Villa scored 1.47 goals and conceded 1.73 goals per game

At Beşiktaş Park, an average of 4.0 goals per game were scored

Both teams scored in 67% of matches, and 67% ended with over 2.5 goals

Head-to-Head

No head-to-head meetings between SC Freiburg and Aston Villa were found in the available data

Key Players

For SC Freiburg, Igor Matanovic is notable, scoring 3 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 games with a rising form trend

Johan Manzambi contributed 1 goal and 2 assists in the last 5 games, showing stable form

Vincenzo Grifo has 1 goal and 2 assists in his last 5 games, with a slightly declining form trend

For Aston Villa, Ollie Watkins stands out, scoring 4 goals and 2 assists in the last 5 games with a rising form trend

John McGinn scored 3 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 games, also with a rising form trend

Emiliano Buendía showed 2 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 games with stable form

Goalkeepers

SC Freiburg goalkeeper Noah Atubolu has recorded 6 clean sheets this season

Emiliano Martínez of Aston Villa has recorded 9 clean sheets this season

Influences

At Beşiktaş Park, the average is 4.0 goals per game

Both teams scored in 67% of matches, and 67% ended with over 2.5 goals

SC Freiburg scored an average of 1.5 home goals and conceded 1.0 home goals per game

Aston Villa scored an average of 1.47 away goals and conceded 1.73 away goals per game

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.