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Europa Conference League

Crystal Palace - Rayo Vallecano

05/27/2026, 07:00 PM

1 : 0
Expected Goals
Crystal Palace
1.6
Total xG
3.0
Rayo Vallecano
1.4
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:1

9%

1:2

8%

2:2

6%

2:0

6%
What influences the xG?
CPRV

Crystal Palace

Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean
+0.21
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.01
JĂžrgen Strand Larsen on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
Strong home record (2.2 vs 1.4 goals/match)

Rayo Vallecano

Attack strength (1.34x league average)
+0.48
Small sample (7 matches) - regression to mean
-0.18
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.03
Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
+0.01
Alfonso Espino on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists)
Pedro DĂ­az on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Crystal Palace: 8 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 2
    Rayo Vallecano: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)

  • 3
    Crystal Palace with Jaydee Canvot: 1 goals/90 min. Without: 5.5 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Rayo Vallecano: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

  • 5
    Rayo Vallecano with Carlos MartĂ­n: 4.8 goals/90 min. Without: 1.3 goals/90 min (4 of 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

40%

Draw

27%

Away Win

33%

Goals

Over 1.5

82%

Under 1.5

18%

Over 2.5

58%

Under 2.5

42%

Over 3.5

36%

Under 3.5

64%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

67%

Away or Draw

60%

No Draw

73%

Both Score

Yes

62%

No

38%

Key Factors
  • Pipeline Prediction: The mathematical analysis projects a 40% win probability for Crystal Palace, 27% for a draw, and 33% for Rayo Vallecano, indicating a closely contested match
  • Form Trend: Rayo Vallecano demonstrates stronger recent form with 3 wins and 2 draws in their last 5 games compared to Crystal Palace (1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses)
  • Tactical Approach and Goal Potential: Rayo Vallecano averaged 6.0 shots on target in their last 5 games, while Crystal Palace averaged 4.6 shots on target, and the venue statistics suggest a high-scoring game (3.2 goals/game, 80% over 2.5 goals)
Risk Factors
  • Home Team Fatigue: Crystal Palace had only 3 days of rest since their last match
  • Away Defensive Weakness: Rayo Vallecano concedes an average of 1.81 goals per away game
  • Tight Result Expected: The model's prediction indicates a close game with a 40% home win and 33% away win, increasing the risk factor
Overview

Crystal Palace host Rayo Vallecano at the Red Bull Arena for a Europa Conference League match. The game is scheduled for May 27, 2026, 9:00 PM. Crystal Palace are in 10th place with 10 points, while Rayo Vallecano are 5th with 13 points

Form

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Crystal Palace's form in their last five matches is WDLDL

They recorded 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses

The last result was a loss

Rayo Vallecano shows strong recent form with WDDWW

They achieved 3 wins and 2 draws without a single loss

They won their last two matches consecutively

Statistics

Crystal Palace averages 1.08 goals scored and 1.34 goals conceded per game over the season

At home, they average 1.06 goals scored and 1.28 goals conceded

They kept 12 clean sheets in total, with 7 at home

Rayo Vallecano also averages 1.08 goals scored and 1.16 goals conceded per game

Away from home, they average 1.06 goals scored and 1.81 goals conceded

They kept 12 clean sheets in total, with 4 away from home

The Red Bull Arena has seen an average of 3.2 goals per game in 5 matches

Both teams scored in 3 of 5 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 4 of 5 games

Head-to-Head

No head-to-head data is available for these two teams

Key Players

For Crystal Palace, key players include:

IsmaĂŻla Sarr (Attacker) with 9 season goals, 0 assists, and an average rating of 7.24, showing declining form

Daichi Kamada (Midfielder) with 1 season goal and 4 assists, an average rating of 7.17, also showing declining form

Jean-Philippe Mateta (Attacker) contributed 2 season goals and 4 assists with a rating of 6.77, maintaining stable form

JĂžrgen Strand Larsen (1 Goal / 1 Assist) is not nominated

For Rayo Vallecano, players to watch are:

Álvaro García (Attacker) with 6 season goals and 4 assists, an average rating of 7.3, and declining form

Alexandre Zurawski (Attacker) scored 4 season goals and 0 assists with a rating of 7.1, showing stable form and 3 goals in his last 5 games

Florian Lejeune (Defender) with 1 season goal and 2 assists, a rating of 7.34, stable form, and 1 goal in his last 5 games

Not nominated are Alfonso Espino (2 Goals / 1 Assist) and Pedro DĂ­az (0 Goals / 2 Assists)

Goalkeepers

Crystal Palace's goalkeeper, Dean Henderson, recorded 12 clean sheets in 13 appearances, including 7 in home games, with a form trend of -0.56

Opposite him, Augusto Batalla of Rayo Vallecano played 14 games, achieved 12 clean sheets, with 4 in away games, and has a stable form trend of -0.07

Influences

The match will be played on a grass surface at the Red Bull Arena

The venue's history shows an average of 3.2 goals per game, with both teams scoring in 3 of 5 matches and over 2.5 goals in 4 of 5 matches

Crystal Palace scored an average of 1.06 goals at home and conceded 1.28 goals

Rayo Vallecano scored an average of 1.06 goals away and conceded 1.81 goals

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