Match report →
Crystal Palace – Rayo Vallecano1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Crystal Palace
1.59
Total xG
3.03
Rayo Vallecano
1.44
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Crystal Palace | Rayo Vallecano |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.34x league average) | +0.48 | |
| Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean | +0.21 | |
| Small sample (7 matches) - regression to mean | −0.18 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.03 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.01 | |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.1 league avg) | +0.01 | |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Alfonso Espino on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Pedro Díaz on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Strong home record (2.2 vs 1.4 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Pipeline Prediction: The mathematical analysis projects a 40% win probability for Crystal Palace, 27% for a draw, and 33% for Rayo Vallecano, indicating a closely contested match
- Form Trend: Rayo Vallecano demonstrates stronger recent form with 3 wins and 2 draws in their last 5 games compared to Crystal Palace (1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses)
- Tactical Approach and Goal Potential: Rayo Vallecano averaged 6.0 shots on target in their last 5 games, while Crystal Palace averaged 4.6 shots on target, and the venue statistics suggest a high-scoring game (3.2 goals/game, 80% over 2.5 goals)
Risks
- Home Team Fatigue: Crystal Palace had only 3 days of rest since their last match
- Away Defensive Weakness: Rayo Vallecano concedes an average of 1.81 goals per away game
- Tight Result Expected: The model's prediction indicates a close game with a 40% home win and 33% away win, increasing the risk factor
All probabilities
Result
Crystal Palace40%
Draw27%
Rayo Vallecano33%
Goals
Over 1.582%
Under 1.518%
Over 2.558%
Under 2.542%
Over 3.536%
Under 3.564%
Double chance
Crystal Palace or draw67%
Rayo Vallecano or draw60%
No draw73%
Both teams score
Yes62%
No38%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
2:1
9%
1:2
8%
2:2
6%
2:0
6%
1:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Crystal Palace: 8 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- Rayo Vallecano: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)
- Crystal Palace with Jaydee Canvot: 1 goals/90 min. Without: 5.5 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)
- Rayo Vallecano: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
- Rayo Vallecano with Carlos Martín: 4.8 goals/90 min. Without: 1.3 goals/90 min (4 of 8 games)
Lineups
Crystal Palace 3-4-3 · Rayo Vallecano 4-2-3-1
Crystal Palace
- 1 D. Henderson
- 23 J. Canvot
- 5 M. Lacroix
- 34 C. Riad
- 2 D. Muñoz Mejía
- 20 A. Wharton
- 18 D. Kamada
- 3 T. Mitchell
- 7 I. Sarr
- 14 J. Mateta
- 10 Y. Jesús Pino Santos
Rayo Vallecano
- 13 A. Batalla Barga
- 2 A. Ratiu
- 24 F. Lejeune
- 6 P. Ciss
- 3 J. Chavarría Pérez
- 23 Ó. Martín Luengo
- 17 U. López Cabrera
- 19 J. De Frutos Sebastián
- 7 I. Palazón Camacho
- 18 Á. García Rivera
- 9 A. Zurawski
Substitutes
- 22 J. Strand Larsen
- 29 E. Guessand
- 55 J. Devenny
- 19 W. Hughes
- 44 W. Benítez
- 24 B. Sosa
- 59 R. Cardines
- 31 R. Matthews
- 11 B. Johnson
- 26 C. Richards
- 8 J. Lerma Solís
- 17 N. Clyne
- 12 Ilias Chakkour
- 10 S. Camello Pérez
- 15 G. Gumbau Garriga
- 1 D. Cárdenas Lindez
- 8 Ó. Trejo
- 32 N. Mendy
- 22 L. Espino García
- 4 P. Díaz Fanjul
- 20 I. Balliu Campeny
- 30 A. Molina Colorado
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