Europa Conference League
FSV Mainz 05 - Strasbourg
04/09/2026, 07:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.6
2.9
1.3
1:1
13%2:1
9%1:2
7%2:0
7%2:2
6%What influences the xG?
FSV Mainz 05
Strasbourg
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
43%
Draw
27%
Away Win
29%
Goals
Over 1.5
80%
Under 1.5
20%
Over 2.5
55%
Under 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
33%
Under 3.5
67%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
71%
Away or Draw
57%
No Draw
73%
Both Score
Yes
59%
No
41%
Key Factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a home win probability of 43% for Mainz 05
- Mainz 05 is unbeaten in the last 5 games and has achieved 4 consecutive wins (DWWWW)
- Strasbourg shows positive form and currently scores an average of 2.3 goals per game
Risk Factors
- Strasbourg concedes an average of 1.85 goals per away game
- FSV Mainz 05 has several injury-related absences, including N. Amiri (Heel Injury) and R. Zentner (Groin Injury)
Overview
FSV Mainz 05 (7th place, 13 points) hosts Strasbourg (1st place, 16 points) at the Mewa Arena. This Europa Conference League match takes place on April 9, 2026, 9:00 PM. Mainz aims to catch up in the competition, while Strasbourg looks to defend its top position.
Form
FSV Mainz 05 shows strong current form with a record of DWWWW (4 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses)
Their last result was a win, and the team has recorded 4 consecutive wins recently
Strasbourg also displays positive form with WDDWW (3 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses)
Their last game ended in a win, and they are unbeaten in their last 2 matches
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
FSV Mainz 05 averages 1.25 goals scored per game and 1.54 goals conceded per game
Strasbourg is more potent offensively with an average of 1.64 goals scored and 1.21 goals conceded per game
At home, Mainz 05 averages 1.21 goals scored and 1.21 goals conceded
Away from home, Strasbourg averages 1.69 goals scored and 1.85 goals conceded
Mainz 05 kept 3 clean sheets this season, while Strasbourg managed 9 clean sheets
The Mewa Arena has seen an average of 2.6 total goals per game in the last 5 matches
Both teams scored in 3 out of 5 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 2 out of 5 games
Head-to-Head
No previous head-to-head meetings between these two teams were found in the dataset.
Key Players
For FSV Mainz 05, Paul Nebel (Midfielder) has 3 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 games with an average rating of 7.59 and is in rising form
Phillip Tietz (Attacker) contributed 2 goals in the last 5 games with a rating of 6.85
Kaishu Sano (Midfielder) showed a rating of 7.26 in the last 5 games and is in rising form
Not on lineup: Jae-sung Lee (2 goals, 2 assists)
For Strasbourg, Martial Godo (Attacker) is in good form with 2 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 games and an average rating of 7.41
Valentín Barco (Midfielder) scored 2 goals in the last 5 games with a rating of 7.09
Guela Doué (Defender) provided 1 assist in the last 5 games and has a rating of 7.28 in rising form
Not on lineup: Sebastian Nanasi (1 goal, 3 assists), Joaquín Panichelli (2 goals, 0 assists)
Goalkeepers
FSV Mainz 05 goalkeeper Daniel Batz played over 450 minutes in the last 5 games and has 3 clean sheets this season
Strasbourg goalkeeper Mike Penders also played 5 games for over 450 minutes and recorded 9 clean sheets this season
Influences
FSV Mainz 05 has an average of 1.21 goals scored and 1.21 goals conceded in home games
Strasbourg concedes an average of 1.85 goals per away game
The Mewa Arena has seen an average of 2.6 total goals per game in the last 5 matches
Both teams scored in 60% of the games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 40%