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Europa Conference League

Fiorentina - Crystal Palace

04/16/2026, 07:00 PM

2 : 1
Expected Goals
Fiorentina
1.4
Total xG
2.9
Crystal Palace
1.5
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

1:2

9%

2:1

8%

0:2

6%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
FIOCP

Fiorentina

Small sample (6 matches) - regression to mean
+0.37
Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 1.6 league avg)
-0.18
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.13
Declining form (1 vs 1.4 season average)
-0.13
Cher Ndour on the bench (3 goals, 3 assists)
Moise Kean not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists)
Dodô not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
Strong home record (2 vs 1.4 goals/match)

Crystal Palace

Attack strength (1.55x league average)
+0.36
Rising form (2.3 vs 1.5 season average)
+0.26
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
+0.06
Small sample (6 matches) - regression to mean
-0.05
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.02
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Crystal Palace with Daniel Muñoz: 2.9 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Crystal Palace: 5 wins in 6 games with xG over 1.0 (83 % win rate)

  • 3
    Fiorentina: 3 consecutive games scored only in H2 (3 of 8 total)

  • 4
    Crystal Palace: First goal in 4 of 6 games (67 %)

  • 5
    Fiorentina with Jacopo Fazzini: 2.8 goals/90 min. Without: 1.2 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

35%

Draw

28%

Away Win

37%

Goals

Over 1.5

80%

Under 1.5

21%

Over 2.5

55%

Under 2.5

45%

Over 3.5

32%

Under 3.5

68%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

63%

Away or Draw

65%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

59%

No

41%

Key Factors
  • Critical goal production for Crystal Palace: Only 49% of their usual goal threat is available
  • Form curve trend: Crystal Palace shows a positive trend with 2.3 goals recently compared to a season average of 1.5 goals, while Fiorentina shows a negative trend with 1.0 goals recently compared to 1.4 goals
  • Head-to-Head record: Crystal Palace recently won the only encounter 3-0, and the pipeline analysis sees them slightly favored with a 37% win probability
Risk Factors
  • Fiorentina had only 3 days of rest since their last match
  • The head-to-head record is based on only a single match, limiting its predictive power
Overview

Fiorentina (15th place, 9 points) host Crystal Palace (10th place, 10 points) at Stadio Artemio Franchi

Europa Conference League match on April 16, 2026, 9:00 PM

Crystal Palace is only one point and five places ahead of the home team in the table

The mathematical analysis predicts a very close result with a slight advantage for Crystal Palace

Form

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Fiorentina's form in the last five matches is WDWLW

The team recorded 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss and won their last game

Crystal Palace's form in the last five matches is DDWWW

They achieved 3 wins and 2 draws and are unbeaten in 3 games

Fiorentina's goal production is currently low (1.0 goals) compared to their season average (1.4 goals), indicating a negative trend

Crystal Palace is scoring more frequently (2.3 goals) than their season average (1.5 goals), showing a positive trend

Statistics

Fiorentina scored an average of 1.16 goals per game this season and conceded 1.38 goals

At home, the average is 1.18 goals scored and 1.18 goals conceded per home game

Crystal Palace scored an average of 1.13 goals per game and conceded 1.16 goals

Away from home, Crystal Palace scored an average of 1.12 goals and conceded 1.0 away goals

The Stadio Artemio Franchi records an average of 2.4 goals per game

Both teams scored in 60% of matches at Stadio Artemio Franchi

Over 2.5 goals were scored in 40% of matches at Stadio Artemio Franchi

Head-to-Head

There has been 1 head-to-head match between these two teams so far

Crystal Palace won the only encounter 3-0 on April 9, 2026

The goal difference in direct duels is 3-0 in favor of Crystal Palace

Key Players

For Fiorentina, Albert Gudmundsson (4 goals, 3 assists this season, stable form), Roberto Piccoli (3 goals, 1 assist this season, stable form), and Rolando Mandragora (1 goal, 1 assist this season, rising form) are key

Fiorentina's starting eleven includes David de Gea, Luca Ranieri, Marin Pongracic, Pietro Comuzzo, Robin Gosens, Rolando Mandragora, Nicolò Fagioli, Jack Harrison, Albert Gudmundsson, Manor Solomon, Roberto Piccoli

For Crystal Palace, Ismaïla Sarr (6 goals, 0 assists this season, rising form), Jean-Philippe Mateta (2 goals, 2 assists this season, rising form), and Daichi Kamada (0 goals, 3 assists this season, stable form) are important players

Crystal Palace's starting eleven includes Dean Henderson, Chris Richards, Maxence Lacroix, Jaydee Canvot, Daniel Muñoz, Adam Wharton, Daichi Kamada, Tyrick Mitchell, Ismaïla Sarr, Jean-Philippe Mateta, Yéremy Pino

Goalkeepers

Fiorentina's goalkeeper is David de Gea, the team achieved 7 clean sheets this season

Crystal Palace's goalkeeper is Dean Henderson, the team achieved 11 clean sheets this season

Influences

Fiorentina plays at Stadio Artemio Franchi on grass

The home team scores an average of 1.18 home goals and concedes 1.18 home goals

Crystal Palace scores an average of 1.12 away goals and concedes 1.0 away goals

The stadium averages 2.4 goals per game, with both teams scoring in 60% of matches, and over 2.5 goals in 40% of matches

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