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Europa Conference League

Strasbourg - FSV Mainz 05

04/16/2026, 07:00 PM

4 : 0
Expected Goals
Strasbourg
1.9
Total xG
2.9
FSV Mainz 05
1.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

2:1

10%

2:0

9%

3:1

6%

1:2

6%
What influences the xG?
STRFM0

Strasbourg

Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.6 league avg)
-0.36
Attack strength (1.25x league average)
+0.26
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.12
Small sample (5 matches) - regression to mean
-0.11
Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 7, 6 places gap)
+0.05
Guela DouƩ not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists)
Strong home record (2.7 vs 1.8 goals/match)

FSV Mainz 05

Small sample (5 matches) - regression to mean
+0.21
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.08
Standings disadvantage (pos 7 vs 1, 6 places gap)
-0.07
Jae-sung Lee not in squad (2 goals, 2 assists)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    FSV Mainz 05: First goal in 6 of 7 games (86%)

  • 2
    Strasbourg with Lucas HĆøgsberg: 2.4 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    FSV Mainz 05: 5 wins in 6 games with xG over 1.0 (83% win rate)

  • 4
    FSV Mainz 05 with Kacper Potulski: 4.4 goals/90 min. Without: 1.3 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)

  • 5
    Strasbourg: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

54%

Draw

25%

Away Win

20%

Goals

Over 1.5

80%

Under 1.5

20%

Over 2.5

56%

Under 2.5

44%

Over 3.5

34%

Under 3.5

66%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

80%

Away or Draw

46%

No Draw

75%

Both Score

Yes

57%

No

43%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Strasbourg with a 54% probability
  • Strasbourg is at the top of the league and displays a strong defense at home with only 0.67 goals conceded per game
  • FSV Mainz 05 won the only direct encounter with a 2-0 score
Risk Factors
  • FSV Mainz 05 had only 4 days of rest since their last match
  • Strasbourg lost the last direct encounter against FSV Mainz 05 away
  • FSV Mainz 05 plays counter-oriented with an average of 42% possession
Overview

Strasbourg (1st place, 16 points) host FSV Mainz 05 (7th place, 13 points) at the Stade de la Meinau

The Europa Conference League match takes place on April 16, 2026, 9:00 PM

Strasbourg leads the league, while Mainz is in the midfield

The mathematical analysis suggests a 54% home win for Strasbourg

Form

Strasbourg's form in the last five games is DDWWL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

This corresponds to 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss

Their last game was a 0-2 away loss against FSV Mainz 05

FSV Mainz 05 shows a form of WWWWL in their last five games

This means 4 wins, 0 draws, and 1 loss

Their last match was a 0-1 home loss against SC Freiburg

Statistics

Strasbourg averages 1.6 goals per home game and concedes only 0.67 goals

This led to 7 clean sheets at home

FSV Mainz 05 averages 1.2 away goals and concedes 1.73 goals per game

They achieved only 1 clean sheet away

At Stade de la Meinau, an average of 2.4 goals are scored per game

Both teams scored in 80% of matches, 40% of matches ended with over 2.5 goals

Strasbourg scores consistently (~1.8 goals per game)

FSV Mainz 05 is currently scoring more frequently (1.6) than their season average (1.3)

Head-to-Head

There has been 1 direct encounter between these two teams

FSV Mainz 05 won this match 2-0 on April 9, 2026

Mainz scored 2 goals, while Strasbourg remained goalless

FSV Mainz 05 was dominant in this last encounter

Key Players

For Strasbourg, Martial Godo shows rising form in 4 of 5 recent games with 2 goals and 1 assist (total 4 season goals, 2 assists)

Julio Enciso participated in 5 of 5 recent games, scoring 1 goal and has a total of 2 season goals and 2 assists (stable form)

Diego Moreira scored 1 goal and provided 1 assist in 5 of 5 recent games (total 0 season goals, 2 assists, stable form)

For FSV Mainz 05, Paul Nebel shows rising form in 5 of 5 recent games with 2 goals and 2 assists (total 0 season goals, 3 assists)

Kaishu Sano scored 1 goal in 4 of 5 recent games (total 1 season goal, 1 assist, rising form)

Phillip Tietz scored 2 goals in 5 of 5 recent games (total 0 season goals, 0 assists, rising form)

Goalkeepers

Strasbourg's goalkeeper Mike Penders played 11 season games and achieved 7 clean sheets in home games

His average rating in the last 5 games is 7.15

Mainz's goalkeeper Daniel Batz played 5 season games and kept 1 clean sheet in away games

His average rating in the last 5 games is 7.06

Influences

Strasbourg benefits from home advantage at Stade de la Meinau

The team scores an average of 1.6 home goals and concedes only 0.67 goals

The stadium has an average of 2.4 goals per game, with both teams scoring in 80% and over 2.5 goals in 40% of matches

The playing surface is grass

ValentĆ­n Barco (19 games), Mike Penders (19 games), and Samir El Mourabet (20 games) have significant experience at Stade de la Meinau

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