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Bundesliga

FSV Mainz 05 - Eintracht Frankfurt

03/22/2026, 02:30 PM

2 : 1
Expected Goals
FSV Mainz 05
1.7
Total xG
2.8
Eintracht Frankfurt
1.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:1

10%

2:0

8%

1:2

7%

2:2

5%
What influences the xG?
FM0EF

FSV Mainz 05

Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.8 league avg)
-0.38
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Rising form (1.8 vs 1.3 season average)
+0.13
Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 7, 7 places gap)
-0.13
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match)
+0.02
N. Amiri not in squad (10 goals, 2 assists)
45% of goal output missing (only 54% available)
Strong home record (1.6 vs 1.3 goals/match)

Eintracht Frankfurt

4 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
-0.07
Standings advantage (pos 7 vs 14, 7 places gap)
+0.04
Robin Koch not in squad (3 goals, 1 assists)
Ayoube Amaimouni-Echghouyab on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists)
Weak away record (1.2 vs 1.8 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.67
+0.67
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

48%

Draw

27%

Away Win

24%

Goals

Over 1.5

79%

Under 1.5

21%

Over 2.5

53%

Under 2.5

47%

Over 3.5

31%

Under 3.5

69%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

76%

Away or Draw

52%

No Draw

73%

Both Score

Yes

57%

No

43%

Key Factors
  • Critical absence for Mainz: Only 55% of goal production is available without N. Amiri (10G/2A)
  • Positive form of Mainz 05: The team is currently scoring more frequently (1.8) than their season average (1.3)
  • Mathematical prediction: The analysis shows a home win probability of 48% and 1.67 expected home goals
Risk Factors
  • Short recovery time for Mainz 05 with only 3 days rest since the last match
  • Eintracht Frankfurt concedes an average of 2.21 goals per away game
  • Key players not nominated for Eintracht Frankfurt: Robin Koch (3G/1A) and Ayoube Amaimouni-Echghouyab (2G/1A)
Overview

FSV Mainz 05 (14th place, 27 points) hosts Eintracht Frankfurt (7th place, 38 points) at the Mewa Arena. The Bundesliga clash takes place on March 22, 2026, 3:30 PM. Mainz is fighting for survival, while Frankfurt aims for European qualification spots

Form

Mainz 05 is in good shape with a form of DDDWW (2 wins, 3 draws, 0 losses) from their last five games across all competitions. The team has achieved two consecutive wins recently

Eintracht Frankfurt shows a form of WLWDW (3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss) and won their last match

An analysis of the advanced statistics indicates that FSV Mainz 05 is currently scoring more frequently (1.8 goals per game) than their season average (1.3 goals per game), representing a positive trend

Eintracht Frankfurt scores consistently with an average of 1.9 goals per game, and their form curve is stable

Statistics

FSV Mainz 05 averages 1.19 goals scored per game and concedes 1.58 goals

At home, the average is 1.15 goals scored and 1.23 goals conceded

Mainz kept 3 clean sheets, 2 of them at home

Both teams scored in 15 matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 13 matches

Eintracht Frankfurt averages 1.88 goals scored per game and also concedes 1.88 goals

Away, the average is 1.86 goals scored and 2.21 goals conceded

Frankfurt kept 7 clean sheets, 1 of them away

Both teams scored in 17 matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 16 matches

The Mewa Arena has seen an average of 2.8 total goals per game in the last 5 matches

In 3 of 5 matches, both teams scored, and in 2 of 5 matches, more than 2.5 goals were scored

Head-to-Head

In the previous 5 head-to-head matches, there was 1 win for Mainz 05, 2 wins for Eintracht Frankfurt, and 2 draws

Mainz 05 scored a total of 5 goals, while Eintracht Frankfurt also scored 5 goals

The last encounter on November 09, 2025, ended 0:1 for the away team, signifying a victory for Mainz 05

The away team has been dominant in recent encounters

Key Players

For FSV Mainz 05, Jae-sung Lee with 4 goals and 2 assists, Danny da Costa with 2 goals and 3 assists, and Paul Nebel with 2 goals and 1 assist are important attacking forces

For Eintracht Frankfurt, Jonathan Burkardt stands out with 9 goals, Farès Chaïbi with 8 assists, and Jean-Mattéo Bahoya with 3 goals and 3 assists

Jonathan Burkardt is in rising form with 2 goals in his last 5 games played

Jean-Mattéo Bahoya also shows a rising form with 2 assists in his last 5 games played

Sheraldo Becker (Mainz) and Farès Chaïbi (Frankfurt) show a declining form trend

Goalkeepers

Daniel Batz is available as goalkeeper for FSV Mainz 05, achieving an average rating of 7.13 in 14 season appearances

Mainz 05 has completed 3 clean sheets this season

Eintracht Frankfurt's goalkeeper Michael Zetterer played in 14 season appearances and achieved an average rating of 6.82

Frankfurt has managed 7 clean sheets this season

Influences

Mainz 05 scored 15 goals and conceded 16 goals at home

The Mewa Arena has seen an average of 2.8 total goals per game in the last 5 matches

In 3 out of 5 matches, both teams scored, and in 2 out of 5 matches, more than 2.5 goals were scored

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