Europa Conference League
Crystal Palace - Fiorentina
04/09/2026, 07:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.6
2.8
1.2
1:1
13%2:1
9%2:0
8%1:2
7%2:2
6%What influences the xG?
Crystal Palace
Fiorentina
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
45%
Draw
28%
Away Win
28%
Goals
Over 1.5
78%
Under 1.5
22%
Over 2.5
53%
Under 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
30%
Under 3.5
70%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
72%
Away or Draw
55%
No Draw
72%
Both Score
Yes
57%
No
43%
Key Factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Crystal Palace with 45% probability and 1.58 expected home goals
- Fiorentina is in strong current form with 4 wins and 1 draw in their last 5 matches
- Crystal Palace critically has only 52% of their usual goal production available
Risk Factors
- Limited data available for head-to-head matches
Overview
Crystal Palace (10th place, 10 points) host Fiorentina (15th place, 9 points) at Selhurst Park
The Europa Conference League match takes place on April 9, 2026, 8:00 PM
Both teams are close in the standings and are fighting for further progress in the competition
Form
Crystal Palace's form in the last five matches is LWDDW (2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss)
Their last result was a win
Fiorentina shows better form with WWWDW (4 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses)
Fiorentina also won their last match
According to Advanced Stats, Crystal Palace is currently scoring more frequently (2.0) than their season average (1.4), indicating a positive trend
Fiorentina is also currently scoring more frequently (2.0) than their season average (1.5) and displays a positive form trend
Statistics
Crystal Palace averages 1.1 goals scored and 1.17 goals conceded per game
At home, these figures are 1.08 goals scored and 1.38 goals conceded
Fiorentina averages 1.16 goals scored and 1.42 goals conceded per game
Away from home, Fiorentina concedes an average of 1.6 goals
Crystal Palace recorded 11 clean sheets in total, with 6 of those in home games
Fiorentina achieved 6 clean sheets, with 3 of them in away games
Selhurst Park has a history of an average of 1.6 total goals per game, with both teams scoring in 1 out of 5 matches and over 2.5 goals occurring in 1 out of 5 matches
Head-to-Head
The provided dataset does not list any historical head-to-head matches between these two teams
Key Players
For Crystal Palace, Ismaïla Sarr (5 season goals, 0 assists), Maxence Lacroix (2 season goals, 1 assist) and Jean-Philippe Mateta (1 season goal, 2 assists) are key players
Ismaïla Sarr scored 3 goals and provided 1 assist in the last 5 games with a rating of 7.28
Maxence Lacroix maintained his rating at 7.13 in the last 5 games
Jean-Philippe Mateta played in 4 of the last 5 games with an average rating of 6.50
For Fiorentina, Albert Gudmundsson (4 season goals, 3 assists), Cher Ndour (3 season goals, 3 assists) and Roberto Piccoli (3 season goals, 1 assist) are noteworthy
Albert Gudmundsson scored 2 goals and provided 2 assists in the last 5 games
Cher Ndour recorded 3 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 games
Roberto Piccoli scored 2 goals and provided 1 assist in 4 of the last 5 games with a rating of 7.30, showing a rising form trend
Not nominated: Moise Kean (1G/2A)
Goalkeepers
For Crystal Palace, Dean Henderson played in 9 season appearances and recorded 11 clean sheets in total, 6 of which were in home games
His rating in the last 5 games is 6.93
For Fiorentina, David de Gea was in goal for 7 season appearances and recorded 6 clean sheets in total, 3 of which were in away games
His rating in the last 5 games is 6.78
Influences
The home advantage at Selhurst Park is historically reflected in an average of 1.6 goals per game, with both teams scoring in 1 of 5 matches and over 2.5 goals occurring in 1 of 5 matches
Crystal Palace scored an average of 1.08 goals and conceded 1.38 goals in home games
Fiorentina conceded an average of 1.6 goals in away games