Bundesliga
VfL Wolfsburg - Werder Bremen
03/21/2026, 02:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.4
3.1
1.6
1:1
12%1:2
9%2:1
8%0:2
6%2:2
6%What influences the xG?
VfL Wolfsburg
Werder Bremen
League
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
32%
Draw
27%
Away Win
42%
Goals
Over 1.5
82%
Under 1.5
18%
Over 2.5
59%
Under 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
36%
Under 3.5
64%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
58%
Away or Draw
68%
No Draw
73%
Both Score
Yes
62%
No
38%
Key Factors
- Pipeline Prediction: The mathematical analysis favors Werder Bremen with a 42% chance of winning
- Form Trend: Werder Bremen shows a positive trend with currently 1.4 goals per game, compared to 1.2 goals season average
- High-Scoring Arena: The Volkswagen Arena sees an average of 3.2 goals per game and 100% BTTS in the last 5 matches
Risk Factors
- Wolfsburg concedes an average of 1.87 goals per home game
- Bremen concedes an average of 1.85 goals per away game
- Jens Stage (7G/2A) from Werder Bremen is absent due to a yellow card suspension
Overview
VfL Wolfsburg (17th place, 21 points) host Werder Bremen (15th place, 25 points) at the Volkswagen Arena
Bundesliga match on March 21, 2026, 3:30 PM
The mathematical analysis predicts an away win for Werder Bremen with 42% probability
Form
VfL Wolfsburg's recent form in their last five matches is DLLLD
This corresponds to 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses
The last result was an away draw against TSG Hoffenheim (1-1)
Werder Bremen's form in their last five matches is LLWWL
This corresponds to 2 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses
The last result was a home loss against FSV Mainz 05 (0-2)
Explanation: W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
VfL Wolfsburg has scored an average of 1.35 goals and conceded 2.15 goals per game this season
At home, they average 1.33 goals scored and 1.87 goals conceded per home game
Werder Bremen averages 1.12 goals scored and 1.81 goals conceded per match
Away from home, their average is 1.15 goals scored and 1.85 goals conceded per away game
Matches at the Volkswagen Arena have an average of 3.2 total goals
Both teams scored in 5 out of 5 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 4 out of 5 games
The mathematical analysis predicts over 2.5 goals with 59% probability
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, the record is even
Both teams won 2 games each, with 1 draw
VfL Wolfsburg and Werder Bremen scored 9 goals each in these encounters
The last direct match on November 7, 2025, was won by Werder Bremen away with 2-1
Key Players
VfL Wolfsburg attacker Mohamed Amoura has contributed 8 goals and 3 assists so far
Midfielder Christian Eriksen has recorded 2 goals and 6 assists
Defender Saël Kumbedi has provided 5 assists this season
Werder Bremen midfielder Romano Schmid shows rising form with 2 goals and 7 assists
Attacker Justin Njinmah has scored 4 goals
Marco Grüll has contributed 3 goals and 1 assist
Not nominated for VfL Wolfsburg are Lovro Majer (2G/3A) and Adam Daghim (2G/2A)
Not nominated for Werder Bremen are Jens Stage (7G/2A) and Keke Topp (1G/1A)
Goalkeepers
Goalkeeper Kamil Grabara of VfL Wolfsburg has kept 1 clean sheet this season
Werder Bremen's goalkeeper Mio Backhaus has recorded 5 clean sheets
Influences
VfL Wolfsburg has scored an average of 1.33 home goals and conceded 1.87 home goals
Werder Bremen has scored 1.15 away goals and conceded 1.85 away goals
The Volkswagen Arena is known for high-scoring games
An average of 3.2 goals per game were scored here, and both teams scored in 100% of the last 5 matches