Bundesliga
FC Bayern München - FC Union Berlin
03/21/2026, 02:30 PM
Expected Goals
2.7
3.9
1.2
2:1
9%3:1
8%3:0
7%4:1
5%2:2
5%What influences the xG?
FC Bayern München
FC Union Berlin
League
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
69%
Draw
18%
Away Win
13%
Goals
Over 1.5
91%
Under 1.5
9%
Over 2.5
74%
Under 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
54%
Under 3.5
46%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
87%
Away or Draw
31%
No Draw
82%
Both Score
Yes
65%
No
35%
Key Factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a home win with 69% probability
- FC Bayern München's offensive dominance (average 3.47 home goals) meets Union Berlin's vulnerable away defense (1.91 goals conceded)
- Bayern are unbeaten in their last 5 games, while Union Berlin shows inconsistent form
Risk Factors
- FC Bayern München had only 3 days of rest since their last match
- FC Union Berlin concedes an average of 1.91 goals per away game
- FC Union Berlin manages an average of only 3.4 shots on target per game according to tactical metrics
Overview
FC Bayern München (1st place, 67 points) host FC Union Berlin (9th place, 31 points) at the Allianz Arena
Bundesliga match on March 21, 2026, 3:30 PM
Bayern aims to extend their lead at the top of the table, while Union fights to move up the standings
Form
FC Bayern München's form is 'WWWDW' (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
They recorded 4 wins and 1 draw in their last five matches
FC Union Berlin shows the form 'LWLLW', with 2 wins and 3 losses in their last five games
Statistics
FC Bayern München scores an average of 3.58 goals and concedes 0.96 goals per game this season
At home, they average 3.47 goals scored and 0.87 goals conceded
FC Union Berlin averages 1.19 goals scored and 1.62 goals conceded per game
Away from home, Union concedes an average of 1.91 goals
The Allianz Arena sees an average of 4.8 goals per game, with both teams scoring and over 2.5 goals in all 5 recent matches
Head-to-Head
In 5 head-to-head matches between FC Bayern München and FC Union Berlin, there have been 3 home wins, 0 away wins, and 2 draws
Bayern scored a total of 12 goals, Union 4
The last encounter on November 8, 2025, ended in a 2-2 draw
FC Bayern has shown dominance in recent direct duels
Key Players
Harry Kane is FC Bayern München's top scorer with 30 goals and 5 assists in 25 appearances
Michael Olise shines with 10 goals and 17 assists in 24 games and an average rating of 7.89
Joshua Kimmich contributed 2 goals and 6 assists in 22 appearances
Andrej Ilic is the best provider for FC Union Berlin with 1 goal and 8 assists in 24 appearances, showing a rising form trend
Ilyas Ansah scored 5 goals and 2 assists in 26 matches
Rani Khedira has 5 goals in 25 games
Goalkeepers
Jonas Urbig guarded the goal for FC Bayern München in 8 games, holding an average rating of 6.79
He shows a declining form trend
Bayern achieved 9 clean sheets this season, with 4 at home
Frederik Rönnow was in goal for 25 games for FC Union Berlin with an average rating of 6.72 and also a declining form trend
Union recorded 6 clean sheets, with 3 away
Influences
FC Bayern München scores an average of 3.47 goals and concedes 0.87 goals at their home stadium
FC Union Berlin concedes an average of 1.91 goals in away games
The Allianz Arena is known for high-scoring games, with an average of 4.8 goals per match
In the last 5 games at this stadium, both teams always scored and there were always over 2.5 goals