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Bundesliga

Hamburger SV - FC Augsburg

04/04/2026, 01:30 PM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
Hamburger SV
1.6
Total xG
3.2
FC Augsburg
1.6
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

1:2

8%

2:1

8%

2:2

7%

0:2

5%
What influences the xG?
HSFA

Hamburger SV

Attack weakness (0.8x league average)
-0.19
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.04
Defensive weakness (1.7 conceded vs 1.8 league avg)
-0.02
16% of goal output missing (only 83% available)

FC Augsburg

3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.10
Rising form (1.6 vs 1.3 season average)
+0.10
Mert Kömür on the bench (2 goals, 3 assists)
Han-Noah Massengo on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists)
Rodrigo Ribeiro on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
Noahkai Banks on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
Kristijan Jakic on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.69
+0.69
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

37%

Draw

26%

Away Win

37%

Goals

Over 1.5

84%

Under 1.5

16%

Over 2.5

62%

Under 2.5

38%

Over 3.5

40%

Under 3.5

60%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

63%

Away or Draw

63%

No Draw

74%

Both Score

Yes

65%

No

35%

Key Factors
  • High goal probability: The mathematical analysis predicts a 62% chance for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score
  • Guests' defensive weakness: FC Augsburg concedes an average of 2.36 goals per away game
  • Contrasting form trends: Augsburg shows positive offensive form (1.6 goals/game), while HSV's goal production is stagnant (1.2 goals/game)
Risk Factors
  • The very balanced win probability of 37% for both teams poses an increased risk of a draw (26%)
Overview

Hamburger SV (12th place, 30 points) host FC Augsburg (10th place, 31 points) at the Volksparkstadion

Bundesliga match on April 4, 2026, 3:30 PM

Both teams are closely matched in the table, fighting for a better mid-table position

Form

Hamburger SV's current form is LLWDL (1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses)

Their last results include a 2-3 away loss to Borussia Dortmund and a 1-1 home draw against FC Köln

FC Augsburg's form is WWLLL (2 wins, 0 draws, 3 losses)

They have suffered three consecutive losses, including a 2-5 home loss against VfB Stuttgart and a 0-2 away loss against Borussia Dortmund

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Hamburger SV averages 1.18 goals scored and 1.00 goal conceded per home game

FC Augsburg averages 1.27 goals scored per away game, but concedes a high 2.36 goals

Venue statistics show an average of 3.0 total goals per game

Both teams scored in 4 out of 5 games, and 3 out of 5 games had over 2.5 goals

Head-to-Head

There has been 1 head-to-head match between these two teams so far

FC Augsburg won this single encounter

The last match took place on November 22, 2025, with FC Augsburg beating Hamburger SV 1-0

Overall, Hamburger SV has scored 0 goals, while FC Augsburg has scored 1 goal in direct duels

Key Players

For Hamburger SV, Luka Vuskovic stands out with 5 season goals and an average rating of 7.2, scoring 2 goals in his last 5 appearances

Fábio Vieira is a key midfielder with 5 season goals and 5 assists

William Mikelbrencis contributed 4 assists this season, with 3 of them coming in his last 5 games

For FC Augsburg, Alexis Claude-Maurice showed his strength with 4 goals and 5 assists this season, contributing 1 goal and 2 assists in his last 5 matches

Fabian Rieder has 4 season goals and 3 assists, including 1 goal and 1 assist in his last 5 appearances

Anton Kade scored 3 season goals, with 1 of them in his last 4 appearances

Goalkeepers

Hamburger SV's goalkeeper, Daniel Heuer Fernandes, has kept 6 clean sheets in 27 season appearances

For FC Augsburg, goalkeeper Finn Dahmen has kept 5 clean sheets in 27 season appearances

Influences

The Volksparkstadion averages 3.0 goals per game

Both teams scored in 80% of matches, and 60% of matches had over 2.5 goals

Hamburger SV has averaged 1.18 goals scored and 1.00 goal conceded at home

FC Augsburg concedes an average of 2.36 goals per away game

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