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Bundesliga

Bayer 04 Leverkusen - VfL Wolfsburg

04/04/2026, 01:30 PM

6 : 3
Expected Goals
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
2.2
Total xG
2.9
VfL Wolfsburg
0.7
Most Likely Scores

2:0

13%

1:1

10%

2:1

10%

3:0

9%

3:1

7%
What influences the xG?
B0LVW

Bayer 04 Leverkusen

Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.8 league avg)
-0.37
Standings advantage (pos 6 vs 17, 11 places gap)
+0.11
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
-0.06
Ernest Poku on the bench (5 goals, 4 assists)
Aleix GarcĂ­a not in squad (2 goals, 6 assists)
Martin Terrier not in squad (4 goals, 1 assists)
Jarell Quansah not in squad (3 goals, 0 assists)
42% of goal output missing (only 63% available)

VfL Wolfsburg

Attack weakness (0.62x league average)
-0.92
Defensive weakness (2.1 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
+0.68
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.15
Declining form (0.8 vs 1.3 season average)
-0.15
Standings disadvantage (pos 17 vs 6, 11 places gap)
-0.09
L. Majer not in squad (2 goals, 3 assists)
Weak away record (1 vs 1.3 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.69
+0.69
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

69%

Draw

21%

Away Win

10%

Goals

Over 1.5

80%

Under 1.5

20%

Over 2.5

56%

Under 2.5

44%

Over 3.5

34%

Under 3.5

66%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

90%

Away or Draw

31%

No Draw

79%

Both Score

Yes

48%

No

52%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a home win with 69% probability
  • Leverkusen's home strength with an average of 1.86 goals meets Wolfsburg's away weakness with an average of 2.33 goals conceded
  • Leverkusen dominated the last five head-to-head encounters with 4 wins and a goal difference of 11:5
Risk Factors
  • Bayer 04 Leverkusen are winless in their last 5 matches (4 draws, 1 loss)
  • Only 64% of the usual starting XI's goal threat is available for Leverkusen, without Ernest Poku, Aleix GarcĂ­a, Martin Terrier, and Jarell Quansah
  • VfL Wolfsburg's goal production is currently stagnant with only 0.8 goals on average in the last 5 matches
Overview

Bayer 04 Leverkusen (6th place, 46 points) host VfL Wolfsburg (17th place, 21 points) at the BayArena

Bundesliga match on April 4, 2026, 3:30 PM

Leverkusen are fighting for international spots, while Wolfsburg are in a relegation battle

The mathematical analysis predicts a clear favorite role for the home team with 69% win probability

Form

Bayer 04 Leverkusen's form across all competitions shows DDDLD (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss) in the last five matches

Leverkusen recorded 0 wins, 4 draws, and 1 loss

Bayer 04 Leverkusen's goal production is stagnant with an average of 1.6 goals, while the season average is 1.8

VfL Wolfsburg's form in the last five matches is LLLDL

Wolfsburg recorded 0 wins, 1 draw, and 4 losses

VfL Wolfsburg's goal production is also stagnant with an average of 0.8 goals, the season average is 1.3

Statistics

Bayer 04 Leverkusen scores an average of 1.93 goals per game and concedes 1.33 goals per game this season

At home, they average 1.86 goals scored and 0.86 goals conceded, with 6 clean sheets

VfL Wolfsburg scores an average of 1.30 goals and concedes 2.11 goals per game this season

Away, they average 1.25 goals scored and 2.33 goals conceded, with 1 clean sheet

At this venue, an average of 2.0 goals per game were scored in the last 5 matches

Both teams scored in 3 of 5 matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 1 of 5 matches

Head-to-Head

In the last five head-to-head encounters, Bayer 04 Leverkusen dominated with 4 wins, while VfL Wolfsburg could not secure a win and there was one draw

The goal difference is 11:5 in favor of Leverkusen

Leverkusen won the last encounter on November 22, 2025, with a score of 3:1

Key Players

For Bayer 04 Leverkusen, Alejandro Grimaldo (6 goals, 7 assists, 7.36 average rating) and Edmond Tapsoba (4 goals, 2 assists, 7.15 average rating) are key players

Ibrahim Maza contributed 2 goals and 3 assists this season

For VfL Wolfsburg, Mohamed Amoura is an offensive force with 8 season goals and 3 assists

Christian Eriksen shows a rising form with 1 goal and 2 assists in the last 5 matches

Konstantinos Koulierakis scored 1 goal in the last 5 matches and also shows a rising form

Goalkeepers

Leverkusen's goalkeeper Mark Flekken has recorded 7 clean sheets this season

Wolfsburg's goalkeeper Kamil Grabara has recorded 1 clean sheet this season

Influences

The BayArena has seen an average of 2.0 goals per game in the last 5 matches

Bayer 04 Leverkusen are strong at home, scoring an average of 1.86 goals and conceding only 0.86 goals in home games

Wolfsburg concede an average of 2.33 goals per away game

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