Bundesliga
FC Union Berlin - St. Pauli
04/05/2026, 01:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.4
2.5
1.0
1:1
14%1:0
10%0:0
10%2:1
9%2:0
9%What influences the xG?
FC Union Berlin
St. Pauli
League
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
44%
Draw
30%
Away Win
26%
Goals
Over 1.5
72%
Under 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
45%
Under 2.5
55%
Over 3.5
24%
Under 3.5
76%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
74%
Away or Draw
56%
No Draw
70%
Both Score
Yes
51%
No
49%
Key Factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Union Berlin with 45% probability and 1.44 expected home goals
- Union Berlin's goal production has recently stalled with an average of 0.6 goals compared to their season average of 1.2 goals and 2.6 shots on target per game
- St. Pauli shows defensive vulnerability away from home, conceding an average of 2.18 goals per away game
Risk Factors
- Union Berlin averaged 2.6 shots on target in their last 5 games, St. Pauli averaged 3.0 shots on target
- The data available for total duels in the last five games is limited
Overview
FC Union Berlin (12th place, 31 points) host St. Pauli (16th place, 24 points) at Stadion An der Alten Försterei
Bundesliga match on April 5, 2026, 3:30 PM
Union Berlin aims to distance themselves from the relegation zone, while St. Pauli needs crucial points in the fight for survival
Form
Union Berlin's recent form is WLLWL
This translates to 2 wins and 3 losses in their last five matches
St. Pauli shows a form of WWDLL
This means 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in their last five games
Both teams enter the match after a loss, with St. Pauli having two consecutive losses
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Union Berlin scores an average of 1.15 goals per game and concedes 1.70 goals
In home matches, they score 1.12 goals and concede 1.31 goals
St. Pauli scores an average of 0.89 goals per game and concedes 1.63 goals
In away matches, St. Pauli concedes an average of 2.18 goals
Union Berlin kept 6 clean sheets, while St. Pauli achieved 5 clean sheets
Both teams scored in 15 Union Berlin matches, and in 14 St. Pauli matches
Matches at Stadion An der Alten Försterei average 3.0 goals per game
In 3 out of 5 home matches, over 2.5 goals were scored, and both teams scored in 3 out of 5 matches
Head-to-Head
There have been a total of 3 head-to-head matches
Union Berlin won 2 of them, St. Pauli won 1 match
The last encounter took place on November 23, 2025, when Union Berlin won 1:0 away against St. Pauli
Union Berlin has been dominant in recent direct encounters
Key Players
For Union Berlin, Andrej Ilic (1 goal, 8 assists) and Rani Khedira (5 goals) are key players
Danilho Doekhi contributed 4 goals as a defender
For St. Pauli, Danel Sinani (5 goals, 3 assists) and Joel Chima Fujita (3 assists) are crucial
Defender Hauke Wahl showed rising form with 1 goal in the last 5 games
Mathias Pereira Lage was involved with 1 goal in the last 5 games
Goalkeepers
Frederik Rönnow is Union Berlin's goalkeeper and played 26 season matches
Nikola Vasilj guarded St. Pauli's goal in 27 season matches
Union Berlin recorded 6 clean sheets this season
St. Pauli managed to keep a clean sheet in 5 matches
Influences
Stadion An der Alten Försterei has seen an average of 3.0 goals per game in the last 5 matches
Both teams scored in 3 out of 5 matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 3 out of 5 matches
Union Berlin scores 1.12 goals at home and concedes 1.31 goals
St. Pauli concedes 2.18 goals per away game