Bundesliga
Werder Bremen - RB Leipzig
04/04/2026, 01:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.0
2.7
1.6
1:1
13%1:2
10%0:2
9%2:1
6%1:3
5%What influences the xG?
Werder Bremen
RB Leipzig
League
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
23%
Draw
28%
Away Win
49%
Goals
Over 1.5
76%
Under 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
50%
Under 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
28%
Under 3.5
72%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
51%
Away or Draw
77%
No Draw
72%
Both Score
Yes
54%
No
46%
Key Factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a 49% win probability for RB Leipzig
- RB Leipzig is in 4th place in the league and shows a significantly stronger season performance with 53 goals scored compared to Werder Bremen's 30 goals
- RB Leipzig averaged 5.8 shots on target in their last 5 games and is considered offensively strong
Risk Factors
- According to Advanced Stats, Werder Bremen shows a positive form trend, currently scoring more goals (1.6) and conceding fewer (1.0) than their season average (1.2 goals scored, 1.81 goals conceded)
- The mathematical analysis indicates a relatively high draw probability of 28%
Overview
Werder Bremen (14th place, 28 points) host RB Leipzig (4th place, 50 points) at the Wohninvest Weserstadion
Bundesliga match on April 4, 2026, 3:30 PM
RB Leipzig is fighting for Champions League spots, while Werder Bremen is in the middle of the table
Form
Werder Bremen's form in the last 5 games is LWWLW
This includes 3 wins and 2 losses
Werder Bremen won their last game away 1-0 against VfL Wolfsburg
RB Leipzig's form in the last 5 games is DWWLW
This includes 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss
RB Leipzig won their last game at home 5-0 against TSG Hoffenheim
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Werder Bremen scores an average of 1.11 goals per game and concedes 1.74 goals per game this season
At home, they score 1.08 goals and concede 1.77 goals per home game
RB Leipzig scores an average of 1.96 goals per game and concedes 1.30 goals per game this season
Away from home, RB Leipzig scores 1.90 goals and concedes 1.70 goals per away game
The Wohninvest Weserstadion has seen an average of 2.2 total goals in the last 5 games
In these games, both teams scored in 1 out of 5 cases and there were over 2.5 goals in 1 out of 5 cases
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, there were 2 wins for RB Leipzig and 3 draws
Werder Bremen could not win any of the last 5 encounters
RB Leipzig scored a total of 8 goals, Werder Bremen 4 goals
The last encounter was won by RB Leipzig away 2-0 on November 23, 2025
Key Players
For Werder Bremen, Romano Schmid (2 goals, 7 assists, Avg. 7.02 rating), Justin Njinmah (5 goals, 0 assists, Avg. 6.73 rating) and Marco Grüll (3 goals, 1 assist, Avg. 6.84 rating) are important attacking players
Romano Schmid has scored 0 goals and provided 1 assist in the last 5 games and shows a declining form trend
Justin Njinmah has scored 1 goal in the last 5 games and shows a stable form trend
Marco Grüll has scored 1 goal in the last 5 games and shows a declining form trend
For RB Leipzig, Christoph Baumgartner (12 goals, 7 assists, Avg. 7.15 rating), Yan Diomande (10 goals, 6 assists, Avg. 7.33 rating) and Rômulo (7 goals, 5 assists, Avg. 7.01 rating) are decisive players
Christoph Baumgartner scored 2 goals in the last 5 games and has a declining form trend
Yan Diomande contributed 2 goals and 2 assists in the last 5 games and shows a stable form trend
Rômulo scored 1 goal and provided 1 assist in the last 5 games and has a stable form trend
Goalkeepers
Mio Backhaus is the goalkeeper for Werder Bremen with a season average rating of 6.92
Werder Bremen kept 6 clean sheets this season
Maarten Vandevoordt is the goalkeeper for RB Leipzig with a season average rating of 6.83
RB Leipzig kept 10 clean sheets this season
Influences
Werder Bremen scores an average of 1.08 goals per home game and concedes 1.77 goals
The Wohninvest Weserstadion is not a particularly high-scoring venue, with an average of 2.2 goals per game in the last 5 matches
In these games, both teams rarely scored (1 out of 5 cases) or saw over 2.5 goals (1 out of 5 cases)