Bundesliga
TSG Hoffenheim - FSV Mainz 05
04/04/2026, 01:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.8
2.8
1.0
1:1
12%2:0
10%2:1
10%3:0
6%3:1
6%What influences the xG?
TSG Hoffenheim
FSV Mainz 05
League
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
56%
Draw
26%
Away Win
19%
Goals
Over 1.5
79%
Under 1.5
21%
Over 2.5
53%
Under 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
31%
Under 3.5
69%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
81%
Away or Draw
44%
No Draw
74%
Both Score
Yes
54%
No
46%
Key Factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Hoffenheim with 56% probability and 1.83 expected goals
- Mainz 05 shows a positive form trend with three consecutive wins and is currently scoring more frequently (2.0 goals) than their season average (1.3 goals)
- Hoffenheim's home strength with an average of 2.0 goals scored and 1.07 goals conceded per home game
Risk Factors
- FSV Mainz 05 is missing 42% of their seasonal goals due to the absence of N. Amiri (only 58% of goal threat available)
- TSG Hoffenheim shows a negative form trend with stalled goal production recently (1.4 compared to a season average of 2.1)
Overview
TSG Hoffenheim (5th place, 50 points) host FSV Mainz 05 (11th place, 30 points) at the PreZero Arena
Bundesliga match on April 4, 2026, 3:30 PM
TSG aims to consolidate their position in the upper third of the table
Form
TSG Hoffenheim shows inconsistent form with DLWDL (1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses) in their last five matches
Their last result was a loss
TSG's goal production has stalled, averaging 1.4 goals per game recently, compared to a season average of 2.1
FSV Mainz 05 is in strong form with DDWWW (3 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses) and three consecutive wins
Mainz is currently scoring more frequently (2.0) than their season average (1.3)
Statistics
TSG Hoffenheim averages 2.0 goals scored per game this season and concedes 1.44 goals
In home matches, their average is 2.0 goals scored and 1.07 goals conceded
FSV Mainz 05 scores an average of 1.22 goals and concedes 1.56 goals per game
Away from home, Mainz averages 1.23 goals scored and concedes 1.92 goals
At the PreZero Arena, the last 5 games saw an average of 2.2 total goals per match, with both teams scoring in 2 of 5 games (40%) and over 2.5 goals in 2 of 5 games (40%)
Head-to-Head
In 5 head-to-head matches between these two teams, TSG Hoffenheim secured 1 win, while FSV Mainz 05 won 2 times
There were 2 draws
The goal difference is 5:8 in favor of Mainz
The last encounter, on November 21, 2025, ended in a 1:1 draw
The recent head-to-head record indicates dominance by the away team
Key Players
For TSG Hoffenheim, Fisnik Asllani (8 goals, 6 assists, avg 7.04 rating) and Grischa Prömel (7 goals, 2 assists, avg 6.94 rating) are key offensive players
Alexander Prass shows good development with 2 goals in the last 5 games and a rising form trend
For FSV Mainz 05, Paul Nebel is currently the crucial player with 3 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 games and a strongly rising form trend
Danny da Costa (1 goal, 2 assists in the last 5 games) and Jae-sung Lee (1 goal in the last 5 games) are also noteworthy
Goalkeepers
For TSG Hoffenheim, Oliver Baumann is in goal, having kept 6 clean sheets in 27 appearances this season
For FSV Mainz 05, Daniel Batz is between the sticks, with 3 clean sheets in 15 appearances
Influences
TSG Hoffenheim shows strong offensive performance at home with an average of 2.0 goals scored and a solid defense with 1.07 goals conceded per home game
FSV Mainz 05 is vulnerable away from home, conceding an average of 1.92 goals while scoring only 1.23 goals
The PreZero Arena saw an average of 2.2 goals per game in the last 5 matches