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Bundesliga

SC Freiburg - FC Bayern München

04/04/2026, 01:30 PM

2 : 3
Expected Goals
SC Freiburg
1.7
Total xG
3.7
FC Bayern München
2.0
Most Likely Scores

1:2

8%

2:2

7%

2:1

7%

1:3

6%

2:3

5%
What influences the xG?
SFFBM

SC Freiburg

Standings disadvantage (pos 8 vs 1, 7 places gap)
-0.13
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
+0.12
Rising form (2 vs 1.6 season average)
+0.12
Igor Matanovic on the bench (8 goals, 1 assists)
Vincenzo Grifo on the bench (7 goals, 1 assists)
31% of goal output missing (only 88% available)
Strong home record (2 vs 1.6 goals/match)

FC Bayern München

Attack strength (1.65x league average)
+0.62
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3.8 goals/match)
+0.09
Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 8, 7 places gap)
+0.07
Michael Olise on the bench (11 goals, 17 assists)
Konrad Laimer on the bench (3 goals, 5 assists)
Aleksandar Pavlovic on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists)
Nicolas Jackson not in squad (4 goals, 0 assists)
Dayot Upamecano on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
24% of goal output missing (only 81% available)
Weak away record (2.4 vs 3.5 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.69
+0.69
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

33%

Draw

23%

Away Win

44%

Goals

Over 1.5

90%

Under 1.5

10%

Over 2.5

72%

Under 2.5

28%

Over 3.5

51%

Under 3.5

49%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

56%

Away or Draw

67%

No Draw

77%

Both Score

Yes

72%

No

28%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis predicts an away win probability of 44% for FC Bayern München
  • FC Bayern München are league leaders with an outstanding season performance of 97 goals scored and only 25 goals conceded
  • FC Bayern München are in strong form with 4 wins and 1 draw from their last 5 matches
Risk Factors
  • FC Bayern München will be without top scorer H. Kane (31 goals, 5 assists) and the suspended N. Jackson (4 goals)
  • SC Freiburg shows a solid home defense with an average of 0.94 goals conceded per home game
  • The probability of both teams scoring is 72% according to mathematical analysis
Overview

SC Freiburg (8th place, 37 points) host league leaders FC Bayern München (1st place, 70 points) at the Europa-Park Stadion. The Bundesliga match takes place on April 4, 2026, 3:30 PM. The league leaders from Munich are clear favorites

Form

SC Freiburg's current form across all competitions is DLLWW. They recorded 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in their last 5 matches and have won their last two games. FC Bayern München are in excellent form with WWDWW. They have achieved 4 wins, 1 draw, and 0 losses in their last 5 matches and have also won their last two games. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

SC Freiburg scored an average of 1.44 goals per game this season and conceded 1.63 goals. At home, they are defensively stronger with only 0.94 goals conceded per home game. FC Bayern München boasts the strongest offense with an average of 3.59 goals per game and concedes only 0.93 goals. Away from home, they even score 3.73 goals per game and concede 1.09 goals. At the Europa-Park Stadion, an average of 3.4 goals were scored in the last 5 games, and both teams scored in 3 of 5 matches

Head-to-Head

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, FC Bayern München dominated. They won 4 games, with 1 draw, and SC Freiburg could not record a single victory. The goal difference is 15:5 in favor of Bayern. The last encounter on November 22, 2025, ended in a 6:2 away win for FC Bayern München

Key Players

For SC Freiburg, Yuito Suzuki (4 goals, 3 assists, Avg. 6.75) and Matthias Ginter (2 goals, 3 assists, Avg. 6.94) are key players, both with rising form. Maximilian Eggestein (2 goals, 0 assists, Avg. 6.94) is also a central figure. For FC Bayern München, Luis Díaz (15 goals, 11 assists, Avg. 7.59), Serge Gnabry (8 goals, 6 assists, Avg. 7.21) and Joshua Kimmich (2 goals, 6 assists, Avg. 7.64) stand out. Serge Gnabry and Lennart Karl show a rising form trend

Goalkeepers

Noah Atubolu of SC Freiburg recorded 5 clean sheets this season. Manuel Neuer of FC Bayern München kept 10 clean sheets

Influences

The Europa-Park Stadion has seen an average of 3.4 total goals per game in the last 5 matches. Both teams scored in 3 out of 5 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 3 out of 5 games. SC Freiburg shows a good offensive (1.41 goals) and defensive (0.94 goals conceded) performance at home

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