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Bundesliga

VfB Stuttgart - Borussia Dortmund

04/04/2026, 04:30 PM

0 : 2
Expected Goals
VfB Stuttgart
1.6
Total xG
2.9
Borussia Dortmund
1.3
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:1

9%

1:2

7%

2:0

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
VSBD

VfB Stuttgart

Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.8 league avg)
-0.43
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match)
-0.06
Jamie Leweling on the bench (7 goals, 6 assists)
Ermedin Demirovic on the bench (9 goals, 2 assists)
Bilal El Khannouss on the bench (3 goals, 3 assists)
25% of goal output missing (only 81% available)

Borussia Dortmund

4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
-0.05
Karim Adeyemi on the bench (6 goals, 3 assists)
Felix Nmecha not in squad (2 goals, 3 assists)
Weak away record (1.4 vs 2.2 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.72
+0.72
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

44%

Draw

27%

Away Win

29%

Goals

Over 1.5

81%

Under 1.5

20%

Over 2.5

56%

Under 2.5

44%

Over 3.5

34%

Under 3.5

66%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

71%

Away or Draw

56%

No Draw

73%

Both Score

Yes

60%

No

40%

Key Factors
  • Home Strength: Mathematical analysis projects a 44% home win probability for Stuttgart
  • Head-to-Head: Stuttgart dominated the last 5 home games against Dortmund with 4 wins and a goal difference of 13:5
  • Offensive Power: Stuttgart's home offense averages 2.00 goals per game, while Dortmund concedes 1.25 goals away
Overview

VfB Stuttgart (3rd place, 53 points) host Borussia Dortmund (2nd place, 61 points) at the MHPArena. This is a Bundesliga match on April 4, 2026, 6:30 PM. Both teams aim to solidify their positions in the top group.

Form

VfB Stuttgart shows mixed form with 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in their last five matches (Form: DLWLW). Their last game was a win. Borussia Dortmund has 3 wins and 2 losses in their last five matches (Form: LLWWW). Their last three games ended in a win. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss.

Statistics

VfB Stuttgart scored an average of 2.07 goals per game this season and conceded 1.33 goals. At home, the average is 2.00 goals scored and 1.09 goals conceded. Borussia Dortmund averaged 2.15 goals scored per game and conceded 1.04 goals. Away, Dortmund scores 2.08 goals and concedes 1.25 goals per game. The MHPArena has seen an average of 2.4 total goals per game in the last 5 matches. Both teams scored in 2 of 5 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 3 of 5 games.

Head-to-Head

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Stuttgart recorded 4 home wins and 1 draw. The goal difference stands at 13:5 in favor of VfB Stuttgart. The last encounter on November 22, 2025, ended in a 3:3 draw. VfB Stuttgart has been dominant in recent meetings.

Key Players

For VfB Stuttgart, Deniz Undav (18 goals, 6 assists, Ø 7.38 rating), Maximilian Mittelstädt (4 goals, 4 assists, Ø 7.22 rating), and Chris Führich (4 goals, 5 assists, Ø 7.01 rating) are key players. Undav shows stable form with 4 goals and 1 assist in his last 5 games. Mittelstädt provided 1 assist with a stable trend. Jamie Leweling (7G/6A), Ermedin Demirovic (9G/2A), and Bilal El Khannouss (3G/3A) are not selected, reducing VfB's goal threat by 19%. For Borussia Dortmund, Nico Schlotterbeck (4 goals, 1 assist, Ø 7.37 rating), Julian Ryerson (0 goals, 13 assists, Ø 7.05 rating), and Serhou Guirassy (13 goals, 2 assists, Ø 7.01 rating) are crucial. Ryerson shows stable form with 2 assists in his last 5 games. Guirassy scored 2 goals in his last 5 games with a slightly declining trend. Karim Adeyemi (6G/3A) and Felix Nmecha (2G/3A) are not selected.

Goalkeepers

VfB Stuttgart's goalkeeper, Alexander Nübel, has played 27 season games and kept 10 clean sheets. Gregor Kobel, Borussia Dortmund's goalkeeper, also played 27 season games and achieved 12 clean sheets. Nübel shows a slightly declining form trend, while Kobel is stable.

Influences

The MHPArena, a grass pitch, has seen an average of 2.4 goals per game in the last 5 matches. VfB Stuttgart is strong at home with 2.00 goals scored and 1.09 goals conceded per game, showing both offensive power and defensive stability. The home advantage could play a role for Stuttgart.

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