Bundesliga
VfB Stuttgart - Borussia Dortmund
04/04/2026, 04:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.6
2.9
1.3
1:1
13%2:1
9%1:2
7%2:0
7%2:2
6%What influences the xG?
VfB Stuttgart
Borussia Dortmund
League
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
44%
Draw
27%
Away Win
29%
Goals
Over 1.5
81%
Under 1.5
20%
Over 2.5
56%
Under 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
34%
Under 3.5
66%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
71%
Away or Draw
56%
No Draw
73%
Both Score
Yes
60%
No
40%
Key Factors
- Home Strength: Mathematical analysis projects a 44% home win probability for Stuttgart
- Head-to-Head: Stuttgart dominated the last 5 home games against Dortmund with 4 wins and a goal difference of 13:5
- Offensive Power: Stuttgart's home offense averages 2.00 goals per game, while Dortmund concedes 1.25 goals away
Overview
VfB Stuttgart (3rd place, 53 points) host Borussia Dortmund (2nd place, 61 points) at the MHPArena. This is a Bundesliga match on April 4, 2026, 6:30 PM. Both teams aim to solidify their positions in the top group.
Form
VfB Stuttgart shows mixed form with 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in their last five matches (Form: DLWLW). Their last game was a win. Borussia Dortmund has 3 wins and 2 losses in their last five matches (Form: LLWWW). Their last three games ended in a win. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss.
Statistics
VfB Stuttgart scored an average of 2.07 goals per game this season and conceded 1.33 goals. At home, the average is 2.00 goals scored and 1.09 goals conceded. Borussia Dortmund averaged 2.15 goals scored per game and conceded 1.04 goals. Away, Dortmund scores 2.08 goals and concedes 1.25 goals per game. The MHPArena has seen an average of 2.4 total goals per game in the last 5 matches. Both teams scored in 2 of 5 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 3 of 5 games.
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Stuttgart recorded 4 home wins and 1 draw. The goal difference stands at 13:5 in favor of VfB Stuttgart. The last encounter on November 22, 2025, ended in a 3:3 draw. VfB Stuttgart has been dominant in recent meetings.
Key Players
For VfB Stuttgart, Deniz Undav (18 goals, 6 assists, Ø 7.38 rating), Maximilian Mittelstädt (4 goals, 4 assists, Ø 7.22 rating), and Chris Führich (4 goals, 5 assists, Ø 7.01 rating) are key players. Undav shows stable form with 4 goals and 1 assist in his last 5 games. Mittelstädt provided 1 assist with a stable trend. Jamie Leweling (7G/6A), Ermedin Demirovic (9G/2A), and Bilal El Khannouss (3G/3A) are not selected, reducing VfB's goal threat by 19%. For Borussia Dortmund, Nico Schlotterbeck (4 goals, 1 assist, Ø 7.37 rating), Julian Ryerson (0 goals, 13 assists, Ø 7.05 rating), and Serhou Guirassy (13 goals, 2 assists, Ø 7.01 rating) are crucial. Ryerson shows stable form with 2 assists in his last 5 games. Guirassy scored 2 goals in his last 5 games with a slightly declining trend. Karim Adeyemi (6G/3A) and Felix Nmecha (2G/3A) are not selected.
Goalkeepers
VfB Stuttgart's goalkeeper, Alexander Nübel, has played 27 season games and kept 10 clean sheets. Gregor Kobel, Borussia Dortmund's goalkeeper, also played 27 season games and achieved 12 clean sheets. Nübel shows a slightly declining form trend, while Kobel is stable.
Influences
The MHPArena, a grass pitch, has seen an average of 2.4 goals per game in the last 5 matches. VfB Stuttgart is strong at home with 2.00 goals scored and 1.09 goals conceded per game, showing both offensive power and defensive stability. The home advantage could play a role for Stuttgart.