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Bundesliga

Eintracht Frankfurt - FC Köln

04/05/2026, 03:30 PM

2 : 2
Expected Goals
Eintracht Frankfurt
1.3
Total xG
2.3
FC Köln
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

12%

1:0

11%

2:0

9%

2:1

8%
What influences the xG?
EFFK

Eintracht Frankfurt

Attack weakness (0.63x league average)
-0.75
Defensive strength (2.2 conceded vs 1.8 league avg)
+0.42
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.19
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Standings advantage (pos 7 vs 15, 8 places gap)
+0.05
Farès Chaïbi on the bench (2 goals, 8 assists)
Jean-Mattéo Bahoya not in squad (3 goals, 4 assists)
Nnamdi Collins not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists)

FC Köln

Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 7, 8 places gap)
-0.09
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.00
Eric Martel not in squad (2 goals, 2 assists)
Ísak Jóhannesson on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.71
+0.71
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

42%

Draw

31%

Away Win

27%

Goals

Over 1.5

68%

Under 1.5

32%

Over 2.5

40%

Under 2.5

60%

Over 3.5

20%

Under 3.5

80%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

73%

Away or Draw

58%

No Draw

69%

Both Score

Yes

48%

No

52%

Key Factors
  • Prediction Advantage: The mathematical analysis predicts a home win probability of 42% for Eintracht Frankfurt and 1.30 expected home goals
  • Home Offense vs. Away Defense: Frankfurt's strong home offense (avg. 1.92 goals) meets Köln's vulnerable away defense (avg. 2.56 goals conceded)
  • Form Comparison: Eintracht Frankfurt has achieved 2 wins and 1 draw in their last five games, while FC Köln remained winless (3 draws, 2 losses)
Risk Factors
  • Eintracht Frankfurt are missing key players Farès Chaïbi (2G/8A), Jean-Mattéo Bahoya (3G/4A), and Nnamdi Collins (1G/2A), impacting assists (only 68% of usual assist share available)
  • FC Köln concedes an average of 2.56 goals per away game (awayGoalsConcededAvg)
Overview

Eintracht Frankfurt (7th place, 38 points) hosts FC Köln (15th place, 26 points) at Deutsche Bank Park. The Bundesliga match takes place on April 5, 2026, 5:30 PM. Frankfurt is pushing for European spots, while Köln is battling against relegation.

Form

Eintracht Frankfurt's form is LWDWL in the last five games (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss). This corresponds to 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses. Their goal production has recently stalled (1.5 goals per game), while the season average is 1.8 goals. FC Köln shows a form of DLLDD with 0 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses. Their goal output is consistent at an average of 1.4 goals per game.

Statistics

Eintracht Frankfurt averages 1.92 goals scored per home game and concedes 1.5 goals. FC Köln averages 1.44 goals scored per away game but concedes a high 2.56 goals. At Deutsche Bank Park, an average of 2.4 goals per game are scored. Both teams scored in 20% of the matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 40% of the matches.

Head-to-Head

In the last three head-to-head matches, Eintracht Frankfurt and FC Köln each secured one win, with one match ending in a draw. Frankfurt scored 5 goals in these encounters, while Köln scored 6. The last meeting on November 22, 2025, ended in a 4-3 victory for Eintracht Frankfurt.

Key Players

For Eintracht Frankfurt, Arnaud Kalimuendo stands out with 2 goals in the last five games and shows stable form. Jonathan Burkardt scored 1 goal in the last five matches but has a declining form. Nathaniel Brown contributed 1 goal in his last four games and is in stable form. For FC Köln, Said El Mala is crucial with 3 goals and 1 assist in the last five games. Jakub Kamiński showed rising form with 1 goal and 2 assists in the last five games. Ragnar Ache scored 2 goals in the last five matches and is in stable form.

Goalkeepers

Eintracht Frankfurt's goalkeeper, Michael Zetterer, has kept seven clean sheets in 15 season appearances and is in rising form with an average rating of 7.05 in his last five games. Marvin Schwäbe of FC Köln has kept three clean sheets in 27 season appearances and is in declining form, with an average rating of 6.59 in his last five games.

Influences

Eintracht Frankfurt benefits from a home advantage, as they score significantly more goals at home (avg. 1.92) and concede fewer (avg. 1.5) than their opponent away. At Deutsche Bank Park, an average of 2.4 goals are scored per game, and both teams scored in only 20% of the matches.

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