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Bundesliga

Borussia Dortmund - Bayer 04 Leverkusen

04/11/2026, 01:30 PM

0 : 1
Expected Goals
Borussia Dortmund
2.2
Total xG
3.4
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

10%

2:1

10%

2:0

8%

3:1

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
BDB0L

Borussia Dortmund

Attack strength (1.41x league average)
+0.61
Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.8 league avg)
-0.47
5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)
+0.01
Maximilian Beier on the bench (8 goals, 4 assists)
Karim Adeyemi not in squad (7 goals, 3 assists)
Felix Nmecha not in squad (2 goals, 3 assists)

Bayer 04 Leverkusen

3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (2.2 goals/match)
+0.09
Ernest Poku on the bench (5 goals, 5 assists)
Martin Terrier not in squad (4 goals, 1 assists)
Jarell Quansah not in squad (3 goals, 0 assists)
26% of goal output missing (only 84% available)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.71
+0.71
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

57%

Draw

23%

Away Win

20%

Goals

Over 1.5

86%

Under 1.5

14%

Over 2.5

66%

Under 2.5

34%

Over 3.5

44%

Under 3.5

56%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

80%

Away or Draw

43%

No Draw

77%

Both Score

Yes

64%

No

36%

Key Factors
  • Pipeline Prediction: Mathematical analysis shows a 57% home win probability and 2.15 predicted home goals
  • Strong Home Form: Borussia Dortmund is in top form with 4 wins in their last 5 games
  • Leverkusen's Positive Offense: Bayer 04 Leverkusen is currently scoring more frequently (2.2) than their season average (1.9)
Risk Factors
  • Away Defensive Weakness: Bayer 04 Leverkusen concedes an average of 1.85 goals per away game
  • Historical Record: Dortmund lost the last direct encounter at home on December 02, 2025, with a score of 0-1
Overview

Borussia Dortmund (2nd place, 64 points) host Bayer 04 Leverkusen (6th place, 49 points) at Signal Iduna Park. The Bundesliga match takes place on April 11, 2026, 3:30 PM. Dortmund aims to consolidate 2nd place, while Leverkusen fights for European spots.

Form

Borussia Dortmund shows excellent form with W W W W L in their last five matches across all competitions. This accounts for 4 wins and 1 loss. Their last appearance resulted in a win. Bayer 04 Leverkusen's form is W D D L D, which means 1 win, 3 draws, and 1 loss in their last five games. Their last appearance resulted in a win. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss.

Statistics

Borussia Dortmund has averaged 2.14 goals scored and 1.00 goal conceded per game this season. At home, the average is 2.20 goals scored and 0.87 goals conceded. Leverkusen has scored an average of 2.07 goals and conceded 1.39 goals per game. Away from home, they have scored 2.00 goals and conceded 1.85 goals. Dortmund kept 13 clean sheets, while Leverkusen managed 7. In 15 of Dortmund's games, both teams scored, compared to 17 for Leverkusen. The venue has seen an average of 3.6 goals per game, with both teams scoring in 40% of matches and over 2.5 goals in 60% of matches.

Head-to-Head

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Borussia Dortmund secured 2 wins, Bayer 04 Leverkusen also had 2 wins, and there was 1 draw. The goal difference is 9:8 in favor of Dortmund. The last encounter on December 02, 2025, ended in a 0-1 away victory for Leverkusen.

Key Players

For Borussia Dortmund, Julian Ryerson stands out with 13 season assists and a current rating of 7.17, Serhou Guirassy with 13 season goals and 2 goals in his last 5 games, and Nico Schlotterbeck with 4 season goals and a rating of 7.35. For Bayer 04 Leverkusen, Alejandro Grimaldo with 8 season goals and 7 assists, including 2 goals and 2 assists in his last 5 matches, Aleix GarcĆ­a with 2 season goals and 6 assists, and Edmond Tapsoba with 5 season goals and 1 goal in his last 5 games are notable. Not nominated for Borussia Dortmund: Maximilian Beier (8G/4A), Karim Adeyemi (7G/3A), Felix Nmecha (2G/3A). Not nominated for Bayer 04 Leverkusen: Ernest Poku (5G/5A), Martin Terrier (4G/1A), Jarell Quansah (3G/0A).

Goalkeepers

Borussia Dortmund's goalkeeper Gregor Kobel has recorded 13 clean sheets this season. Bayer 04 Leverkusen's Mark Flekken has achieved 7 clean sheets this season.

Influences

Borussia Dortmund shows strong attacking prowess at home with an average of 2.20 goals scored and is defensively stable with 0.87 goals conceded. Signal Iduna Park averages 3.6 goals per game, with over 2.5 goals occurring in 60% of matches.

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