Bundesliga
VfB Stuttgart - Hamburger SV
04/12/2026, 03:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.8
2.7
0.9
1:1
13%2:0
11%2:1
10%3:0
6%3:1
6%What influences the xG?
VfB Stuttgart
Hamburger SV
League
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
56%
Draw
26%
Away Win
18%
Goals
Over 1.5
76%
Under 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
50%
Under 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
28%
Under 3.5
72%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
82%
Away or Draw
44%
No Draw
74%
Both Score
Yes
51%
No
49%
Key Factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for VfB Stuttgart with 56% probability
- VfB Stuttgart recorded an average of 5.6 shots on target in the last 5 games and shows strong offensive capabilities
- Hamburger SV concedes an average of 2.30 goals per away game, indicating defensive vulnerability
Risk Factors
- VfB Stuttgart's goal production is declining, with 1.4 goals per game recently compared to a season average of 2.0 goals
- The form of Ermedin Demirovic (VfB attacker) with 0.39 goals per 90 minutes recently is declining compared to his season average of 0.61
- Hamburger SV shows a counter-oriented approach with an average of 43% possession in the last 5 games
Overview
VfB Stuttgart (4th place, 53 points) host Hamburger SV (12th place, 31 points) at the MHPArena
Bundesliga match on April 12, 2026, 5:30 PM
VfB Stuttgart are fighting for a Champions League spot, while HSV is in the mid-table
Form
VfB Stuttgart's form across all competitions is LWLWL
This corresponds to 2 wins and 3 losses from the last 5 games
VfB Stuttgart's last match ended in a loss
Hamburger SV shows a form of LWDLD
This is 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses from the last 5 games
Hamburger SV's last result was a draw
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
VfB Stuttgart scores an average of 2.00 goals per game and concedes 1.36 goals per match this season
At home, VfB Stuttgart scores an average of 2.00 goals and concedes 1.27 goals
Hamburger SV scores an average of 1.14 goals per game and concedes 1.46 goals
Away from home, Hamburger SV scores an average of 1.10 goals and concedes 2.30 goals
At the MHPArena, an average of 2.6 goals are scored per game
In 2 out of 5 games, both teams scored, and 3 out of 5 games had over 2.5 goals
Head-to-Head
Historically, there has been 1 head-to-head match between these two teams
Hamburger SV won this one game
The goal difference is 1:2 in favor of Hamburger SV
The last encounter on November 30, 2025, ended with a 1:2 away win for Hamburger SV
Key Players
For VfB Stuttgart, Deniz Undav (18 goals, 6 assists, average rating 7.36), Jamie Leweling (7 goals, 6 assists, average rating 7.07), and Ermedin Demirovic (9 goals, 2 assists, average rating 7.02) are important offensive players
Undav shows stable form with 3 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 games
Leweling scored 2 goals in the last 5 games and is in stable form
Demirovic registered 1 goal in the last 5 games, his form is declining
Not nominated: Bilal El Khannouss (3 goals/3 assists), Nikolas Nartey (3 goals/2 assists)
On Hamburger SV's side, Fábio Vieira (5 goals, 5 assists, average rating 7.09), Ransford Königsdörffer (5 goals, 2 assists, average rating 6.71), and Rayan Philippe (5 goals, 0 assists, average rating 6.73) are crucial
Vieira contributed 1 goal and 1 assist in the last 5 games, his form is declining
Königsdörffer and Philippe have not scored or assisted in their last 3 games, their form is also declining
Not nominated: Luka Vuskovic (5 goals/0 assists), Albert Sambi Lokonga (5 goals/0 assists), Miro Muheim (0 goals/4 assists), Philip Otele (1 goal/1 assist)
Goalkeepers
Alexander Nübel, goalkeeper for VfB Stuttgart (average rating 7.02), achieved 10 clean sheets this season
Daniel Heuer Fernandes, goalkeeper for Hamburger SV (average rating 6.86), kept 6 clean sheets this season
Influences
VfB Stuttgart scores an average of 2.00 goals and concedes 1.27 goals at home
The MHPArena grass surface has a history of an average of 2.6 goals per game
In 2 out of 5 games, both teams scored, and 3 out of 5 games had over 2.5 goals