FA Cup
West Ham United - Leeds United
04/05/2026, 03:30 PM
Expected Goals
2.4
4.6
2.2
2:2
7%2:1
6%1:2
6%3:2
6%3:1
5%What influences the xG?
West Ham United
Leeds United
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
43%
Draw
21%
Away Win
36%
Goals
Over 1.5
95%
Under 1.5
5%
Over 2.5
83%
Under 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
67%
Under 3.5
33%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
64%
Away or Draw
57%
No Draw
79%
Both Score
Yes
81%
No
19%
Key Factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a high probability for both teams to score (81% BTTS) and over 2.5 goals (83%)
- Both teams show fluctuating form recently with only 1 win in their last 5 matches
- Leeds United's away defense is vulnerable, conceding an average of 2.15 goals per away game
Risk Factors
- West Ham United averaged only 2.8 shots on target in their last 5 games
- Leeds United concedes an average of 2.15 goals per away game
Overview
West Ham United hosts Leeds United in the FA Cup on April 5, 2026, 5:30 PM at the London Stadium
Form
West Ham United's form across all competitions is LWDDL (1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses)
Their last match resulted in a loss
Leeds United's form across all competitions is LLWDD (1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses)
Their last match resulted in a draw
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
West Ham United scores an average of 1.16 goals per game and concedes 1.84 goals
At home, they score 1.12 goals and concede 1.75 goals per game
Leeds United scores an average of 1.19 goals per game and concedes 1.55 goals
Away from home, they score 1.15 goals and concede 2.15 goals per game
The London Stadium sees an average of 2.4 goals per game
In 4 out of 5 matches at the London Stadium, both teams scored (BTTS)
In 2 out of 5 matches at the London Stadium, over 2.5 goals were scored
Head-to-Head
There has been only 1 head-to-head match between these teams
Leeds United won this last encounter on October 24, 2025, with a score of 2:1
The goal difference in direct matches is 2:1 in favour of Leeds United
Leeds United is the recently dominant team in head-to-head encounters
Key Players
For West Ham United, Jarrod Bowen is crucial with 8 goals and 6 assists this season, his last 5 games show 2 goals and 1 assist with a rating of 7.05
Mateus Fernandes (3 goals, 3 assists) has an average season rating of 7.04
Taty Castellanos scored 2 goals this season, with 1 goal in the last 5 games
For Leeds United, Anton Stach is an important midfielder with 4 goals and 3 assists and a season rating of 7.25
Lukas Nmecha contributed 6 goals and 1 assist this season
Ethan Ampadu has a season rating of 6.99 with 1 goal and 1 assist
Goalkeepers
West Ham United's Alphonse Areola has made 20 appearances this season and recorded 4 clean sheets
Leeds United's Lucas Perri has made 16 appearances this season and recorded 6 clean sheets
Influences
The London Stadium features a grass surface
West Ham United scores an average of 1.12 goals at home and concedes 1.75 goals per game
Leeds United scores an average of 1.15 goals away and concedes 2.15 goals per game
The average total goals at the London Stadium is 2.4 per game
Both teams scored in 4 out of 5 of the last matches at the London Stadium