FA Cup
Manchester City - Liverpool
04/04/2026, 11:45 AM
Expected Goals
1.5
3.0
1.5
1:1
13%2:1
9%1:2
8%2:2
6%2:0
6%What influences the xG?
Manchester City
Liverpool
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
38%
Draw
27%
Away Win
35%
Goals
Over 1.5
82%
Under 1.5
18%
Over 2.5
58%
Under 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
36%
Under 3.5
64%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
65%
Away or Draw
62%
No Draw
73%
Both Score
Yes
62%
No
38%
Key Factors
- Balanced forecast: The mathematical analysis shows very close odds for both teams (home win 38%, away win 35%).
- Man City's offensive dip: Manchester City's recent goal production (1.4 goals) is below their season average (2.2 goals).
- Liverpool's away defense: Liverpool concedes an average of 1.79 goals per away game, indicating a potential vulnerability.
Risk Factors
- Liverpool's Away Defense: Liverpool concedes an average of 1.79 goals per away game.
- Man City's Form Inconsistency: Manchester City's current form (1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses) shows inconsistent performance.
- Injury List: Several players on both sides are unavailable due to injuries or suspensions.
Overview
Manchester City host Liverpool in the FA Cup at the Etihad Stadium. The match is scheduled for April 4, 2026, 1:45 PM. This is a significant cup clash between two top teams.
Form
Manchester City's form across all competitions is DWLDL, which includes 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses. Their last match was a 1-2 loss to Real Madrid, preceded by a 1-1 draw against West Ham United. Liverpool's form across all competitions is WLDWL, consisting of 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses. Liverpool's last game was a 1-2 loss to Brighton & Hove Albion, following a 4-0 win against Galatasaray. (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Statistics
Manchester City averages 2.00 goals scored per game and concedes 0.93 goals per game. At home, they average 2.00 goals scored and only 0.61 goals conceded. Liverpool averages 1.61 goals scored per game and concedes 1.35 goals. Away from home, Liverpool scores 1.64 goals and concedes an average of 1.79 goals. At the Etihad Stadium, an average of 3.0 goals are scored per game. Both teams scored in 60% of matches, and 80% of games had over 2.5 goals.
Head-to-Head
In the 5 direct encounters, the head-to-head record is balanced. Manchester City and Liverpool each secured 2 wins, with 1 match ending in a draw. The goal difference is also even at 6:6. The last meeting on February 8, 2026, saw Liverpool win 2-1.
Key Players
For Manchester City, key players include Erling Haaland with 22 goals and 7 assists, Rayan Cherki with 3 goals and 8 assists, and Nico O'Reilly with 4 goals and 3 assists. Tactical analysis shows Manchester City in their last 5 games as possession-dominant with an average of 6.6 shots on target. Not nominated for the starting lineup are Rúben Dias (2G/0A) and Rayan Aït-Nouri (0G/2A). For Liverpool, Hugo Ekitiké with 11 goals and 4 assists, Mohamed Salah with 5 goals and 6 assists, and Dominik Szoboszlai with 5 goals and 3 assists are the standout players. Liverpool was also possession-dominant in their last 5 games, averaging 8.0 shots on target. Not nominated for the starting lineup are Cody Gakpo (6G/3A), Alexis Mac Allister (2G/2A), and Jeremie Frimpong (0G/2A).
Goalkeepers
Manchester City's goalkeeper James Trafford has played once this season. His team has recorded 12 clean sheets so far. Liverpool's goalkeeper Giorgi Mamardashvili has played once this season. His team has kept 9 clean sheets.
Influences
Manchester City shows strong offensive performance at home with an average of 2.00 goals scored and defensive stability with only 0.61 goals conceded. Liverpool, on the other hand, concedes an average of 1.79 goals per away game. The Etihad Stadium tends to favor high-scoring matches, with an average of 3.0 goals per game and an 80% likelihood of over 2.5 goals.