🇩🇪

Bundesliga

FC Köln - Werder Bremen

04/12/2026, 01:30 PM

3 : 1
Expected Goals
FC Köln
1.2
Total xG
2.4
Werder Bremen
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

11%

0:1

10%

1:0

9%

1:2

8%
What influences the xG?
FKWB

FC Köln

Attack weakness (0.76x league average)
-0.85
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.01
Full strength squad available

Werder Bremen

Defensive strength (1.8 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
+0.35
Attack weakness (0.79x league average)
-0.29
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.14
Rising form (1.6 vs 1.2 season average)
+0.14
Jens Stage not in squad (7 goals, 2 assists)
18% of goal output missing (only 87% available)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.70
+0.70
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

32%

Draw

31%

Away Win

37%

Goals

Over 1.5

71%

Under 1.5

29%

Over 2.5

43%

Under 2.5

57%

Over 3.5

22%

Under 3.5

78%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

63%

Away or Draw

68%

No Draw

69%

Both Score

Yes

51%

No

49%

Key Factors
  • Werder Bremen shows better current form with 3 wins in their last 5 games, in contrast to Köln's 0 wins
  • The historical record favors Werder Bremen, having won 2 out of 3 head-to-head matches and being considered recently dominant
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a slightly higher 37% probability for an away win
Risk Factors
  • FC Köln's current form with 0 wins and 3 draws in their last 5 games is poor
  • The mathematical analysis shows a considerable 31% probability for a draw
  • The data situation is limited as total duels data for the last 5 games of the teams is unavailable
Overview

FC Köln (15th place, 27 points) host Werder Bremen (14th place, 28 points) at RheinEnergieStadion

Bundesliga match on April 12, 2026, 3:30 PM

Both teams are fighting for crucial points in the lower half of the table against relegation

Form

FC Köln's form across all competitions is LLDDD (0 wins, 3 draws, 2 losses)

The team has played three consecutive draws recently

Werder Bremen's form across all competitions is WWLWL (3 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses)

Their last result was a loss

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

FC Köln scores an average of 1.43 goals per game and concedes 1.75 goals

In home matches, the average is 1.39 goals scored and 1.33 goals conceded

Werder Bremen scores an average of 1.11 goals per game and also concedes 1.75 goals

Away from home, Bremen scores 1.14 goals and concedes 1.71 goals

At RheinEnergieStadion, an average of 3.4 goals are scored per game

In 80% of matches at this stadium, both teams score and over 2.5 goals are tallied

Head-to-Head

In 3 head-to-head matches, FC Köln has 0 wins, 1 draw, and Werder Bremen has 2 wins

The goal difference is 2:4 in favor of Werder Bremen

The last encounter on November 29, 2025, ended in a 1:1 draw

The recent record shows dominance by Werder Bremen

Key Players

For FC Köln, Said El Mala (10 goals, 4 assists) and Jakub Kamiński (7 goals, 3 assists) are key attacking players

Kamiński shows a rising form with 2 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 games

Ragnar Ache contributed 6 goals and 4 assists

For Werder Bremen, Romano Schmid is an important creator with 2 goals and 7 assists, but shows a declining form

Justin Njinmah (5 goals) and Marco Grüll (3 goals, 1 assist) are other attacking players

Not nominated: Jens Stage (7 goals, 2 assists)

Goalkeepers

Marvin Schwäbe is the goalkeeper for FC Köln and recorded 3 clean sheets this season

Mio Backhaus is the goalkeeper for Werder Bremen and achieved 6 clean sheets

Influences

RheinEnergieStadion is known for high-scoring matches with an average of 3.4 goals per game

In 80% of matches at the stadium, both teams score and over 2.5 goals are tallied

FC Köln scores an average of 1.39 goals at home and concedes 1.33 goals

Werder Bremen scores 1.14 goals away and concedes 1.71 goals

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.