Bundesliga
FSV Mainz 05 - SC Freiburg
04/12/2026, 05:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.7
2.7
1.0
1:1
13%2:0
10%2:1
10%3:0
6%3:1
6%What influences the xG?
FSV Mainz 05
SC Freiburg
League
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
54%
Draw
26%
Away Win
20%
Goals
Over 1.5
77%
Under 1.5
23%
Over 2.5
51%
Under 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
29%
Under 3.5
71%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
80%
Away or Draw
46%
No Draw
74%
Both Score
Yes
53%
No
47%
Key Factors
- Mainz 05's strong form with 5 consecutive wins and a positive defensive trend
- SC Freiburg's vulnerable away defense with an average of 2.80 goals conceded per away game
- The mathematical analysis predicts a home win with a 54% probability and 1.75 expected home goals
Risk Factors
- Mainz 05 has only 3 days of rest since their last match
- SC Freiburg has only 3 days of rest since their last match
- Mainz 05 has 84% of their usual starting XI goal threat available, with Jae-sung Lee (4G/2A) and Silvan Widmer (2G/0A) not selected
Overview
FSV Mainz 05 (9th place, 33 points) hosts SC Freiburg (8th place, 37 points) at the Mewa Arena. This Bundesliga match is scheduled for April 12, 2026, 7:30 PM. Both teams are in the middle of the table, vying for an improved position.
Form
Mainz 05 is in top form with 5 consecutive wins (WWWWW)
Their recent results include 2-0 against Strasbourg, 2-1 against Hoffenheim, 2-1 against Eintracht Frankfurt, 2-0 against Sigma Olomouc, and 2-0 against Werder Bremen
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
SC Freiburg has achieved 3 wins and 2 losses in their last 5 games (LWWLW)
These include a 3-0 against Celta de Vigo and a 2-1 against St. Pauli
Statistics
Mainz 05 averages 1.25 goals scored and 1.54 goals conceded per game this season
At home, they average 1.21 goals scored and 1.21 goals conceded
Freiburg averages 1.46 goals scored and 1.68 goals conceded per game
Away from home, they average 1.50 goals scored and a high 2.80 goals conceded
Mainz 05 is currently scoring more frequently (2.0) than their season average (1.4), indicating a positive trend
SC Freiburg is also currently scoring more frequently (2.4) than their season average (1.6), also showing a positive trend
Both teams scored in 17 out of 28 games for each team
At the Mewa Arena, the last 5 games saw an average of 2.6 goals per match
Both teams scored in 3 of the 5 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 2 games
Head-to-Head
In 5 head-to-head matches, Mainz 05 has no wins, while Freiburg won 2 times and 3 games ended in a draw
Mainz scored 3 goals, Freiburg scored 8 goals
The last encounter on November 30, 2025, ended in a 4-0 victory for SC Freiburg
Key Players
For Mainz 05, Paul Nebel shows rising form with 3 goals and 2 assists in his last 5 games
Phillip Tietz scored 2 goals in his last 5 appearances
Kaishu Sano contributed 1 goal in 4 of the last 5 games
For SC Freiburg, Igor Matanovic is in top form with 3 goals and 1 assist in 3 of his last 5 games
Matthias Ginter scored 2 goals and provided 1 assist in the last 5 games
Maximilian Eggestein scored 1 goal in his last 5 appearances
Goalkeepers
Mainz 05 goalkeeper Daniel Batz has an average rating of 7.06 this season
He has kept 3 clean sheets
Noah Atubolu, SC Freiburg's goalkeeper, has a season rating of 6.92
He has kept 5 clean sheets
Influences
Mainz 05 averages 1.21 goals scored and 1.21 goals conceded at home
Freiburg's away record shows 1.50 goals scored and a high 2.80 goals conceded per game
The Mewa Arena has seen an average of 2.6 total goals in the last 5 matches
Both teams scored in 3 of 5 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 2 of 5 games