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Bundesliga

Heidenheim - FC Union Berlin

04/11/2026, 01:30 PM

3 : 1
Expected Goals
Heidenheim
1.4
Total xG
2.8
FC Union Berlin
1.4
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

2:1

8%

1:2

8%

2:0

6%

0:2

6%
What influences the xG?
HEIFUB

Heidenheim

Defensive weakness (2.2 conceded vs 1.8 league avg)
+0.49
Attack weakness (0.78x league average)
-0.33
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match)
+0.11
Rising form (1.4 vs 1 season average)
+0.11
Standings disadvantage (pos 18 vs 11, 7 places gap)
-0.10
Luca Kerber on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
Strong home record (1.3 vs 1 goals/match)

FC Union Berlin

5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.19
Declining form (0.6 vs 1.2 season average)
-0.19
Attack weakness (0.66x league average)
-0.14
Standings advantage (pos 11 vs 18, 7 places gap)
+0.05
Stanley Nsoki not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists)
Christopher Trimmel on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.71
+0.71
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

36%

Draw

28%

Away Win

36%

Goals

Over 1.5

78%

Under 1.5

22%

Over 2.5

53%

Under 2.5

47%

Over 3.5

30%

Under 3.5

70%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

64%

Away or Draw

64%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

58%

No

42%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a very balanced match with almost equal winning chances for both teams (home win 36%, away win 36%)
  • Heidenheim has a strong historical record against Union Berlin, with 4 wins and 1 draw in 5 direct encounters
  • Heidenheim shows a slightly improved current offense (1.4 goals) compared to their season average (1.0 goals), and home games at the Voith-Arena are high-scoring (average 4.6 goals per game)
Risk Factors
  • Heidenheim averaged only 3.0 shots on target in their last 5 games
  • FC Union Berlin averaged 3.4 shots on target in their last 5 games
  • FC Union Berlin concedes an average of 2.27 goals per away game
Overview

Heidenheim (18th place, 16 points) host FC Union Berlin (11th place, 32 points) at the Voith-Arena

Bundesliga match on April 11, 2026, 3:30 PM

Heidenheim is fighting relegation at the bottom of the table, while Union Berlin is placed in the midfield

Form

Heidenheim's form in the last five games (LLLDD) shows two draws and three losses

Their last match result was a draw

FC Union Berlin achieved one win, one draw, and three losses in their last five games (LLWLD)

Their last match also ended in a draw

Heidenheim recorded 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses

FC Union Berlin registered 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Heidenheim scores an average of 1.04 goals per game and concedes 2.25 goals

At home, Heidenheim averages 1.06 goals scored and 2.00 goals conceded per home game

FC Union Berlin scores an average of 1.14 goals and concedes 1.68 goals per game

Away from home, Union Berlin scores 1.18 goals and concedes 2.27 goals per away game

Heidenheim has kept 0 clean sheets this season

Union Berlin has kept 6 clean sheets

Heidenheim's home games average 4.6 total goals per match

Both teams scored in 60% of home games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 80%

Head-to-Head

In a total of 5 head-to-head matches, Heidenheim dominated with 4 wins

FC Union Berlin did not win any of the direct encounters, with 1 draw

The goal difference of 10:3 clearly favors Heidenheim

The last direct meeting was won by Heidenheim 2:1 on November 29, 2025

Key Players

For Heidenheim, Stefan Schimmer is an important offensive player with 5 goals and 1 assist

Marvin Pieringer also shows presence with 4 season goals

Patrick Mainka contributed 2 goals and 1 assist

For FC Union Berlin, Andrej Ilic is crucial with 2 goals and 8 assists

Rani Khedira has scored 5 season goals

Oliver Burke has 4 goals and 1 assist

Goalkeepers

Heidenheim's goalkeeper Diant Ramaj played 27 season games with an average rating of 6.76

Heidenheim has 0 clean sheets this season

Frederik Rönnow, goalkeeper for FC Union Berlin, played 27 matches and achieved an average rating of 6.72

Union Berlin kept 6 clean sheets

Influences

Heidenheim scores an average of 1.06 goals at home and concedes 2.00 goals per home game

This indicates a certain home advantage in offense, but also a vulnerability in defense

The Voith-Arena is characterized by high-scoring games, with an average of 4.6 goals per match

Both teams scored in 60% of the games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 80%

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