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Bundesliga

St. Pauli - FC Bayern München

04/11/2026, 04:30 PM

0 : 5
Expected Goals
St. Pauli
1.1
Total xG
3.2
FC Bayern München
2.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

11%

1:2

10%

0:2

9%

1:3

7%

0:3

6%
What influences the xG?
SPFBM

St. Pauli

Attack weakness (0.7x league average)
-0.53
Standings disadvantage (pos 16 vs 1, 15 places gap)
-0.20
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.12
Declining form (0.8 vs 1 season average)
-0.07
Eric Smith not in squad (2 goals, 2 assists)

FC Bayern München

Attack strength (1.46x league average)
+0.60
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.8 goals/match)
-0.19
Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 16, 15 places gap)
+0.14
Harry Kane on the bench (31 goals, 5 assists)
Luis Díaz on the bench (15 goals, 11 assists)
Serge Gnabry not in squad (8 goals, 6 assists)
Lennart Karl not in squad (5 goals, 4 assists)
Josip Stanisic on the bench (2 goals, 3 assists)
Jonathan Tah on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists)
Aleksandar Pavlovic on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists)
Dayot Upamecano on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
50% of goal output missing (only 67% available)
Weak away record (2.3 vs 3.4 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.69
+0.69
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

19%

Draw

23%

Away Win

57%

Goals

Over 1.5

84%

Under 1.5

16%

Over 2.5

62%

Under 2.5

38%

Over 3.5

40%

Under 3.5

60%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

43%

Away or Draw

81%

No Draw

77%

Both Score

Yes

61%

No

39%

Key Factors
  • Table position and form: Bayern are league leaders and in top form (4 wins, 1 draw in 5 games), St. Pauli are battling relegation (1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses)
  • FC Bayern's offensive strength: The Bavarians score an average of 3.67 goals per away game and have mathematically 2.07 predicted goals
  • Head-to-head record: FC Bayern has won all three previous encounters against St. Pauli
Risk Factors
  • FC Bayern's limited squad strength: Only 67% of the usual starting XI's goal threat is available without Harry Kane (31G/5A), Luis Díaz (15G/11A), Serge Gnabry (8G/6A), Lennart Karl (5G/4A), Josip Stanisic (2G/3A), Jonathan Tah (2G/2A), Aleksandar Pavlovic (3G/1A), and Dayot Upamecano (1G/1A)
  • St. Pauli's limited shots on target production: The team averaged only 2.6 shots on target in their last 5 games
  • FC Bayern's declining goal production: Recent goal production is at an average of 2.8 goals, while the season average is 3.4 goals
Overview

St. Pauli (16th place, 25 points) host league leaders FC Bayern München (1st place, 73 points) at Millerntor-Stadion

Bundesliga match on April 11, 2026, 6:30 PM

FC Bayern are comfortably leading the league, while St. Pauli are battling relegation and fighting for crucial points

Form

St. Pauli shows an inconsistent form with 'WDLLD' across all competitions

The team recorded one win, two draws, and two losses in their last five matches

Most recently, St. Pauli drew 1-1 away against FC Union Berlin

FC Bayern München presents itself in top form with 'DWWWW'

The Bavarians achieved four wins and one draw in their last five games

Their last match was a 2-1 away victory against Real Madrid

The mathematical analysis predicts a high probability of 57% for an away win for FC Bayern

A draw is calculated with a 23% probability, and a home win for St. Pauli with 19%

Statistics

St. Pauli scores an average of 0.89 goals per game and concedes 1.61 goals over the season

At home, they score 0.88 and concede 1.25 goals per home game

St. Pauli kept a clean sheet in 5 games

FC Bayern München shows a strong offense with an average of 3.57 goals per game and a stable defense of 0.96 goals conceded

Away from home, Bayern is particularly dangerous with 3.67 goals scored and 1.17 goals conceded per away game

FC Bayern kept a clean sheet in 10 games

At Millerntor-Stadion, an average of 2.2 goals per game were scored in the last five matches

Both teams scored in 4 out of 5 games, and 3 out of 5 games ended with over 2.5 goals

Head-to-Head

In three direct encounters, St. Pauli has not been able to secure a win against FC Bayern München

FC Bayern won all three matches

The goal difference of 7:3 clearly favors the Bavarians

The last meeting ended with a 3-1 away win for FC Bayern on November 29, 2025

Key Players

For St. Pauli, Danel Sinani with 5 season goals and 3 assists, and Mathias Pereira Lage with 2 season goals and 2 assists, are important offensive players

Mathias Pereira Lage scored 2 goals in his last five matches

Andréas Hountondji contributed 4 goals this season, with 1 in his last five games

For FC Bayern München, Michael Olise stands out with 11 season goals and 18 assists

Joshua Kimmich is a central figure in midfield with 2 goals and 6 assists

Jamal Musiala scored 1 goal and 2 assists this season, and found the net 2 times in his last five games

Not nominated for St. Pauli is Eric Smith (2G/2A)

Goalkeepers

Nikola Vasilj of St. Pauli played in 28 season matches and kept 5 clean sheets

His form trend shows a rising trajectory with a delta rating of 0.49

Manuel Neuer of FC Bayern München made 20 season appearances and achieved 10 clean sheets

His form trend is also rising with a delta of 0.38

Influences

The home team St. Pauli scored 0.88 goals per home game and conceded 1.25 goals at Millerntor-Stadion

FC Bayern München scored an average of 3.67 goals away and conceded 1.17 goals

Millerntor-Stadion recorded an average of 2.2 goals per game in the last five matches, with both teams scoring in 80% of games and over 2.5 goals occurring in 60% of games

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