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Bundesliga

FC Bayern München - VfB Stuttgart

04/19/2026, 03:30 PM

4 : 2
Expected Goals
FC Bayern München
2.6
Total xG
4.2
VfB Stuttgart
1.6
Most Likely Scores

2:1

8%

3:1

7%

2:2

6%

3:2

6%

1:2

5%
What influences the xG?
FBMVS

FC Bayern München

Attack strength (1.67x league average)
+1.25
5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3.6 goals/match)
+0.03
Harry Kane on the bench (31 goals, 5 assists)
Michael Olise on the bench (12 goals, 18 assists)
Serge Gnabry not in squad (8 goals, 6 assists)
Konrad Laimer on the bench (3 goals, 6 assists)
Jonathan Tah on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists)
Dayot Upamecano on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
41% of goal output missing (only 62% available)

VfB Stuttgart

Attack strength (1.21x league average)
+0.12
Deniz Undav not in squad (18 goals, 6 assists)
Ermedin Demirovic on the bench (9 goals, 3 assists)
Maximilian Mittelstädt on the bench (5 goals, 4 assists)
44% of goal output missing (only 75% available)
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (2 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.70
+0.70
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    FC Bayern München: 6 wins in 7 games with xG above 1.0 (86% win rate)

  • 2
    FC Bayern München: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 3
    FC Bayern München: 6 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes

  • 4
    FC Bayern München with Raphaël Guerreiro: 9.5 goals/90 min. Without: 2.7 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)

  • 5
    VfB Stuttgart with Chema Andrés: 5.7 goals/90 min. Without: 2.3 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

60%

Draw

20%

Away Win

21%

Goals

Over 1.5

93%

Under 1.5

7%

Over 2.5

79%

Under 2.5

21%

Over 3.5

60%

Under 3.5

40%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

79%

Away or Draw

40%

No Draw

80%

Both Score

Yes

74%

No

26%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for FC Bayern München with 60%
  • FC Bayern München shows excellent form with 5 consecutive wins
  • FC Bayern München's offensive home strength is predicted with an average of 2.62 expected goals
Risk Factors
  • Harry Kane, Michael Olise, Serge Gnabry, Konrad Laimer, Jonathan Tah, Dayot Upamecano are missing, only 63% of goal threat is available
  • VfB Stuttgart has a strong away offense with an average of 2.12 goals per game
  • FC Bayern München's home defense recently conceded an average of 1.2 goals, which is slightly above the season average of 1.0
  • The venue has a history of very high goal averages of 5.2 goals per game, which can lead to an unpredictable match outcome
Overview

FC Bayern München (1st place, 76 points) host VfB Stuttgart (4th place, 56 points) at the Allianz Arena

Bundesliga match on April 19, 2026, 5:30 PM

The league leader meets a top team in the league, both teams aiming to consolidate their positions

Form

FC Bayern München shows excellent form with 5 consecutive wins (WWWWW)

Their last 5 games all ended in a victory for Bayern

VfB Stuttgart has a form of 3 wins and 2 losses (WLWLW)

Their last game was a win

The form trends for both teams are stable according to the analysis

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

FC Bayern München scored an average of 3.62 goals per game and conceded 0.93 goals this season

In home games, Bayern are very offensively strong with an average of 3.73 goals scored and 0.87 goals conceded

VfB Stuttgart averages 2.07 goals scored and 1.31 goals conceded per game

Away from home, Stuttgart averages 2.12 goals scored and 1.50 goals conceded

Both teams scored in 18 of Bayern's 29 games and 16 of Stuttgart's 29 games

At the venue, the last 5 games saw an average of 5.2 goals per match

In 80% of games at the venue, both teams scored, and 100% of games ended with over 2.5 goals

Head-to-Head

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, FC Bayern München dominated

Bayern won 4 games, VfB Stuttgart won 1 game

The goal difference in these matches is 16:4 in favor of Bayern

The last encounter was won by Bayern on December 6, 2025, with a 5:0 score

The historical record suggests home win dominance

Key Players

For FC Bayern München, Luis Díaz with 15 goals and 11 assists and an average season rating of 7.54, Joshua Kimmich with 2 goals and 6 assists at 7.64, and Nicolas Jackson with 5 goals and 1 assist at 6.81 are important players

For VfB Stuttgart, Chris Führich with 5 goals and 6 assists at 7.07, Angelo Stiller with 2 goals and 6 assists at 7.21, and Tiago Tomás with 4 goals and 3 assists at 6.84 are key players

Not nominated for VfB Stuttgart's starting eleven are Deniz Undav (18G/6A), Ermedin Demirovic (9G/3A), and Maximilian Mittelstädt (5G/4A)

Goalkeepers

Jonas Urbig is the goalkeeper for FC Bayern München with 9 season appearances

Alexander Nübel is the goalkeeper for VfB Stuttgart with 29 season appearances

Both teams have achieved 11 clean sheets this season

Influences

The Allianz Arena, home of FC Bayern München, is known for many goals

An average of 5.2 goals per match were scored in the last 5 games

80% of games at the venue saw both teams score, and 100% of games ended with over 2.5 goals

Bayern scores an average of 3.73 goals at home and concedes 0.87 goals

The venue has a strong influence on both teams' shooting and scoring opportunities

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