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Bundesliga

Werder Bremen - Hamburger SV

04/18/2026, 01:30 PM

3 : 1
Expected Goals
Werder Bremen
1.7
Total xG
2.7
Hamburger SV
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:1

10%

2:0

9%

1:2

6%

3:1

6%
What influences the xG?
WBHS

Werder Bremen

Defensive strength (1.9 conceded vs 1.8 league avg)
+0.11
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
+0.08
Rising form (1.4 vs 1.1 season average)
+0.08
Attack weakness (0.77x league average)
+0.02
Marco Grüll on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists)
Strong home record (1.4 vs 1.1 goals/match)

Hamburger SV

Attack weakness (0.72x league average)
-0.60
Defensive weakness (1.8 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
+0.35
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.02
Luka Vuskovic not in squad (5 goals, 0 assists)
Albert Sambi Lokonga not in squad (5 goals, 0 assists)
Philip Otele on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
38% of goal output missing (only 89% available)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.70
+0.70
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Werder Bremen: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (5 of 8 total)

  • 2
    Hamburger SV with Miro Muheim: 1.6 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Werder Bremen: 80% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 4
    Werder Bremen with Olivier Deman: 1.5 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

52%

Draw

27%

Away Win

22%

Goals

Over 1.5

77%

Under 1.5

23%

Over 2.5

52%

Under 2.5

48%

Over 3.5

30%

Under 3.5

70%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

79%

Away or Draw

48%

No Draw

73%

Both Score

Yes

54%

No

46%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Werder Bremen with a 52% probability
  • Werder Bremen recently showed a positive scoring trend (1.4 goals currently vs. 1.1 season average)
  • Hamburger SV is defensively vulnerable away from home, conceding an average of 2.7 goals per game
Risk Factors
  • Hamburger SV won the only direct encounter with a score of 3:2
  • Werder Bremen has suffered two consecutive losses recently
Overview

Werder Bremen (15th place, 28 points) hosts Hamburger SV (13th place, 31 points) at the Wohninvest Weserstadion

The Bundesliga match takes place on April 18, 2026, 3:30 PM

Both teams are fighting for crucial points in the lower half of the table

Form

Werder Bremen's form in the last five games is WLWLL

This includes 2 wins and 3 losses

Hamburger SV has shown a form of WDLDL in their last five matches

This comprises 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Werder Bremen lost their last away game against FC Köln by 1:3

Hamburger SV suffered a 0:4 away defeat against VfB Stuttgart in their last match

Statistics

Werder Bremen scores an average of 1.1 goals per game this season and concedes 1.79 goals

Hamburger SV scores an average of 1.1 goals per match and concedes 1.55 goals

Werder Bremen kept 6 clean sheets, as did Hamburger SV with 6 clean sheets

In 16 games involving Werder Bremen, over 2.5 goals were scored, compared to 15 games for Hamburger SV

Werder Bremen scores an average of 1.07 goals at home and concedes 1.79 goals

Hamburger SV scores an average of 1.1 goals away and concedes 2.7 goals

The Wohninvest Weserstadion sees an average of 2.4 goals per game

In 2 out of 5 matches at the stadium, both teams scored, and in 2 out of 5 matches, over 2.5 goals were scored

Head-to-Head

There has been only 1 head-to-head match between Werder Bremen and Hamburger SV so far

Hamburger SV won this encounter with a score of 3:2

The last meeting took place on December 7, 2025, where Hamburger SV emerged victorious

The goal difference from this match is 2 goals for Werder Bremen and 3 goals for Hamburger SV

Hamburger SV has shown dominance in the direct confrontations

Key Players

For Werder Bremen, Jens Stage is a key player with 7 goals and 2 assists, holding an average rating of 7.10

Romano Schmid contributed 3 goals and 7 assists with an average rating of 7.02

Justin Njinmah proved to be an important offensive player with 5 goals and no assists, at an average rating of 6.74

For Hamburger SV, Fábio Vieira is a key player with 5 goals and 5 assists, and an average rating of 7.09

Ransford Königsdörffer scored 5 goals and 2 assists with an average rating of 6.72

Nicolás Capaldo contributed 1 goal and 1 assist with an average rating of 6.82

Not in lineup: Marco Grüll (3G/1A)

Not in lineup: Luka Vuskovic (5G/0A), Albert Sambi Lokonga (5G/0A), Philip Otele (1G/1A)

Goalkeepers

Werder Bremen's goalkeeper, Mio Backhaus, played 27 games and was involved in 6 clean sheets for his team

Hamburger SV's goalkeeper, Daniel Heuer Fernandes, played 29 games and contributed to 6 clean sheets for his team

Influences

The match takes place at the Wohninvest Weserstadion on grass

Werder Bremen scores an average of 1.07 goals at home and concedes 1.79 goals

Hamburger SV scores an average of 1.1 goals away and concedes 2.7 goals

The home stadium has seen an average of 2.4 goals per game

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