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Bundesliga

SC Freiburg - Heidenheim

04/19/2026, 01:30 PM

2 : 1
Expected Goals
SC Freiburg
2.1
Total xG
3.0
Heidenheim
0.9
Most Likely Scores

2:0

11%

1:1

11%

2:1

10%

3:0

7%

3:1

7%
What influences the xG?
SFHEI

SC Freiburg

Attack strength (1.21x league average)
+0.39
Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.8 league avg)
-0.33
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)
+0.16
Rising form (2.2 vs 1.7 season average)
+0.16
Standings advantage (pos 8 vs 18, 10 places gap)
+0.10
Yuito Suzuki on the bench (4 goals, 3 assists)
Niklas Beste on the bench (1 goals, 3 assists)
Philipp Treu on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists)

Heidenheim

Attack weakness (0.79x league average)
-0.65
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
+0.27
Rising form (2 vs 1.1 season average)
+0.27
Standings disadvantage (pos 18 vs 8, 10 places gap)
-0.10
Eren Dinkçi not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
Budu Zivzivadze on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
Luca Kerber on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.70
+0.70
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    SC Freiburg with Philipp Lienhart: 5.4 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    SC Freiburg: 4 wins in 5 games with xG above 1.0 (80% win rate)

  • 3
    Heidenheim with Budu Zivzivadze: 2.5 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    SC Freiburg: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 5
    SC Freiburg: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

63%

Draw

23%

Away Win

14%

Goals

Over 1.5

81%

Under 1.5

19%

Over 2.5

57%

Under 2.5

43%

Over 3.5

35%

Under 3.5

65%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

86%

Away or Draw

37%

No Draw

77%

Both Score

Yes

54%

No

46%

Key Factors
  • SC Freiburg is the clear favorite according to mathematical analysis, with a win probability of 63%
  • SC Freiburg's current form is strong, with 4 wins in their last 5 games and 3 consecutive victories
  • Heidenheim's defense is particularly vulnerable away from home, conceding an average of 2.9 goals per game, suggesting an offensive match
Risk Factors
  • SC Freiburg has only 3 days of rest since their last match
  • Heidenheim's defense is vulnerable away from home, conceding an average of 2.9 goals per game
Overview

SC Freiburg (8th place, 40 points) host Heidenheim (18th place, 19 points) at the Europa-Park Stadion. The Bundesliga match takes place on April 19, 2026, 3:30 PM. Freiburg are pushing for European spots, while Heidenheim are in a relegation battle

Form

SC Freiburg are in strong form: WLWWW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss). The team has won 4 of their last 5 matches and boasts a winning streak of 3 consecutive victories. Heidenheim's form is mixed with LLDDW. In their last 5 games, they have 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses. Heidenheim recently won one game

Statistics

SC Freiburg averages 1.45 goals scored per game and concedes 1.62 goals. At home, the average is 1.44 goals scored and 1.06 goals conceded. They have recorded 6 clean sheets this season. In 17 matches, both teams scored, and 18 matches ended with over 2.5 goals. Heidenheim averages 1.1 goals scored and concedes 2.21 goals per game. Away from home, their defense is particularly vulnerable, conceding 2.9 goals per game. Heidenheim has not achieved a clean sheet this season. In 18 matches, both teams scored, and 20 matches ended with over 2.5 goals. At the Europa-Park Stadion, an average of 4.2 goals per game have been scored, with both teams scoring in 3 out of 5 matches and over 2.5 goals being scored in 4 out of 5 matches

Head-to-Head

In the 5 head-to-head matches between the two teams, the balance is even. SC Freiburg and Heidenheim each won 2 games, while 1 match ended in a draw. Heidenheim won the last encounter on December 6, 2025, with a score of 2:1. Across all direct confrontations, SC Freiburg scored 6 goals and Heidenheim scored 8 goals

Key Players

For SC Freiburg, Igor Matanovic (8 goals, 1 assist) and Vincenzo Grifo (7 goals, 1 assist) are key offensive players. Matthias Ginter contributes to defense and build-up play with 2 goals and 4 assists. For Heidenheim, Marvin Pieringer stands out with 4 goals and 1 assist. Arijon Ibrahimovic has contributed 1 goal and 4 assists. Patrick Mainka is an important player with 2 goals and 2 assists

Goalkeepers

SC Freiburg's goalkeeper, Noah Atubolu, played in 29 season matches and recorded 6 clean sheets. For Heidenheim, Diant Ramaj played in 28 matches. He has not achieved a clean sheet this season

Influences

SC Freiburg has a home advantage at the Europa-Park Stadion. The team averages 1.44 home goals scored and 1.06 home goals conceded. In the last 5 games at the Europa-Park Stadion, an average of 4.2 goals per match were scored, with both teams scoring in 3 games and over 2.5 goals being scored in 4 games. The pitch surface is grass

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