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Bundesliga

Eintracht Frankfurt - RB Leipzig

04/18/2026, 04:30 PM

1 : 3
Expected Goals
Eintracht Frankfurt
1.2
Total xG
2.7
RB Leipzig
1.5
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:2

9%

0:2

8%

2:1

7%

2:2

5%
What influences the xG?
EFRL

Eintracht Frankfurt

Attack weakness (0.78x league average)
-0.81
Defensive strength (2.1 conceded vs 1.8 league avg)
+0.39
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.19
Ritsu Doan on the bench (4 goals, 5 assists)
Jean-Mattéo Bahoya not in squad (3 goals, 4 assists)
Nnamdi Collins not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists)

RB Leipzig

Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
-0.16
Attack strength (1.2x league average)
-0.02
David Raum on the bench (3 goals, 6 assists)
Xaver Schlager not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists)
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
Weak away record (1.6 vs 2 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.70
+0.70
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Eintracht Frankfurt: first goal in 5 of 7 games (71%)

  • 2
    RB Leipzig with Ezechiel Banzuzi: 6.6 goals/90 min. Without: 1.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    RB Leipzig: 6 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes

  • 4
    Eintracht Frankfurt: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games

  • 5
    RB Leipzig: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

29%

Draw

29%

Away Win

43%

Goals

Over 1.5

76%

Under 1.5

24%

Over 2.5

50%

Under 2.5

50%

Over 3.5

28%

Under 3.5

72%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

57%

Away or Draw

71%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

56%

No

44%

Key Factors
  • Leipzig's offensive strength (averaging 6.8 shots on target) and consistent goal production (2.0 goals per game) contrasts with Frankfurt's recently stagnating goal output (1.5 goals recently vs. 1.8 season average)
  • The mathematical analysis predicts an away win for RB Leipzig with 43% probability and more expected goals (1.50 vs. 1.19) for the visitors
  • RB Leipzig has a strong recent head-to-head record against Eintracht Frankfurt, including a dominant 6:0 victory in their last encounter
Risk Factors
  • RB Leipzig is missing key players like Xaver Schlager (Yellow Card Suspension), reducing the starting eleven's strength to 90% of its usual goal threat
  • Eintracht Frankfurt's goal production has recently decreased to an average of 1.5 goals per game, while the season average is 1.8 goals
Overview

Eintracht Frankfurt (7th place, 42 points) host RB Leipzig (4th place, 56 points) at Deutsche Bank Park

Bundesliga match on April 18, 2026, 6:30 PM

Leipzig is fighting for a Champions League spot, while Frankfurt aims for European qualification

Form

Eintracht Frankfurt shows mixed form with W-D-L-D-W (2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss) in their last five matches

Their last result was a win

RB Leipzig is in good form with W-L-W-W-W (4 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss) in their last five games

Leipzig has won their last three consecutive matches

(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Statistics

Eintracht Frankfurt scores an average of 1.86 goals per game and concedes 1.86 goals per game this season

RB Leipzig has an average scoring rate of 1.93 goals per game and concedes 1.24 goals per game

Frankfurt kept 7 clean sheets, Leipzig 11 clean sheets

In home games, Frankfurt averages 1.92 goals scored and 1.54 goals conceded

Leipzig scores 1.91 goals per game away and concedes 1.64 goals per game

At Deutsche Bank Park, an average of 2.8 total goals per game were scored

Both teams scored in 2 of 5 matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 3 of 5 matches

Head-to-Head

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Eintracht Frankfurt secured 1 win, RB Leipzig 3 wins, and there was 1 draw

The goal difference is 7:13 in favor of RB Leipzig

The last encounter on December 6, 2025, ended with a 0:6 away win for RB Leipzig

RB Leipzig has been dominant in recent meetings

Key Players

Eintracht Frankfurt can rely on forward Arnaud Kalimuendo, who scored 3 goals in his last 5 games and shows stable form

Jonathan Burkardt, also in attack, scored 1 goal in 5 games, but his form is declining

Midfielder Farès Chaïbi shows a rising form with 1 assist in 4 games

For RB Leipzig, Christoph Baumgartner in midfield is in stable form with 2 goals and 1 assist in his last 4 matches

Forward Yan Diomande is also stable with 2 goals and 1 assist in 5 games

Rômulo in attack scored 1 goal in 5 games, but his form is declining

Goalkeepers

Eintracht Frankfurt's goalkeeper, Michael Zetterer, conceded 0 goals in 17 season appearances and shows a rising form

Frankfurt recorded a total of 7 clean sheets

Maarten Vandevoordt, RB Leipzig's goalkeeper, conceded 0 goals in 8 season appearances and is in stable form

Leipzig achieved 11 clean sheets this season

Influences

At Deutsche Bank Park, an average of 2.8 total goals per game were scored

Both teams scored in 40% of matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 60%

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