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Bundesliga

TSG Hoffenheim - Borussia Dortmund

04/18/2026, 01:30 PM

2 : 1
Expected Goals
TSG Hoffenheim
1.6
Total xG
2.8
Borussia Dortmund
1.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:1

10%

2:0

9%

1:2

6%

2:2

5%
What influences the xG?
THBD

TSG Hoffenheim

Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 1.8 league avg)
-0.21
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
-0.13
Declining form (1.6 vs 2 season average)
-0.13
Grischa Prömel on the bench (7 goals, 2 assists)
Alexander Prass on the bench (3 goals, 2 assists)

Borussia Dortmund

4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
-0.09
Serhou Guirassy on the bench (13 goals, 2 assists)
Felix Nmecha not in squad (2 goals, 3 assists)
Ramy Bensebaini on the bench (4 goals, 0 assists)
40% of goal output missing (only 81% available)
Weak away record (1.3 vs 2.1 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.70
+0.70
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Borussia Dortmund: 79% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 2
    Borussia Dortmund: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games

  • 3
    Borussia Dortmund: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 4
    Borussia Dortmund with Carney Chukwuemeka: 5 goals/90 min. Without: 2 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 5
    Borussia Dortmund: 43% of all goals between minutes 76-90 (6 of 14)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

48%

Draw

27%

Away Win

24%

Goals

Over 1.5

78%

Under 1.5

22%

Over 2.5

52%

Under 2.5

48%

Over 3.5

30%

Under 3.5

70%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

76%

Away or Draw

52%

No Draw

73%

Both Score

Yes

56%

No

44%

Key Factors
  • Mathematical analysis: Pipeline predictions favor a home win for Hoffenheim with 48% probability and 1.65 expected home goals
  • Hoffenheim's home strength: TSG scores an average of 1.93 goals per home game
  • Dortmund's consistency: Despite a recent loss, Borussia Dortmund shows a strong season performance with an average of 2.07 goals scored and 1.00 goal conceded per game
Risk Factors
  • Dortmund's injury situation: Despite 81% of active goal share available, key players such as Serhou Guirassy (13G/2A), Felix Nmecha (2G/3A), and Ramy Bensebaini (4G/0A) are missing
  • Hoffenheim's defensive vulnerability: TSG conceded an average of 2.4 goals in recent matches, compared to a season average of 1.48
Overview

TSG Hoffenheim (6th place, 51 points) host Borussia Dortmund (2nd place, 64 points) at the PreZero Arena

Bundesliga match on April 18, 2026, 3:30 PM

A clash between a team competing for European spots and a top team in the league

Form

TSG Hoffenheim's form in the last 5 matches is WDL LD (1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses)

Their last appearance resulted in a draw

Borussia Dortmund's form is WWWWL (4 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss) in their last 5 matches

Their last appearance resulted in a loss

(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Statistics

TSG Hoffenheim averages 1.97 goals scored and 1.48 goals conceded per game this season

At home, they average 1.93 goals scored and 1.13 goals conceded

Borussia Dortmund averages 2.07 goals scored and 1.00 goal conceded per game

Away from home, they average 2.08 goals scored and 1.15 goals conceded

For TSG Hoffenheim, 19 games saw both teams score, and 20 matches had over 2.5 goals

For Borussia Dortmund, 15 games saw both teams score, and 16 matches had over 2.5 goals

The PreZero Arena records an average of 2.6 goals per game in the last 5 matches

In 3 out of 5 games at the arena, both teams scored, and 3 out of 5 games had over 2.5 goals

Head-to-Head

The last 5 head-to-head matches saw a total of 15 goals

Borussia Dortmund won 3 of these 5 games, TSG Hoffenheim won 1 game, and 1 match ended in a draw

The last encounter on December 7, 2025, saw Borussia Dortmund win away with a score of 0:2

Borussia Dortmund has been more dominant in recent encounters

Key Players

For TSG Hoffenheim, Fisnik Asllani (9 goals, 7 assists) with stable form, Andrej Kramaric (10 goals, 5 assists) with declining form, and Bazoumana Touré (3 goals, 8 assists) with stable form are key

Not nominated: Grischa Prömel (7G/2A), Alexander Prass (3G/2A)

For Borussia Dortmund, Maximilian Beier (8 goals, 4 assists) with stable form, Julian Ryerson (0 goals, 13 assists) with stable form, and Nico Schlotterbeck (4 goals, 1 assist) with declining form stand out

Not nominated: Serhou Guirassy (13G/2A), Felix Nmecha (2G/3A), Ramy Bensebaini (4G/0A)

Wouter Burger, Vladimír Coufal, Ozan Kabak, and Tim Lemperle show declining form in their last 5 games

Marcel Sabitzer, Carney Chukwuemeka, and Niklas Süle show declining form in their last 5 games

Goalkeepers

Oliver Baumann of TSG Hoffenheim recorded 6 clean sheets this season

Gregor Kobel of Borussia Dortmund kept 13 clean sheets this season

Influences

TSG Hoffenheim shows a solid performance at home with 1.93 goals scored and 1.13 goals conceded per home game

The PreZero Arena has an average of 2.6 goals per match in the last 5 games

The playing surface is grass

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