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Bundesliga

Bayer 04 Leverkusen - FC Augsburg

04/18/2026, 01:30 PM

1 : 2
Expected Goals
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
1.8
Total xG
3.0
FC Augsburg
1.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

2:1

10%

2:0

9%

1:2

6%

3:1

6%
What influences the xG?
B0LFA

Bayer 04 Leverkusen

Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.8 league avg)
-0.35
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (2.2 goals/match)
+0.10
Ernest Poku on the bench (5 goals, 5 assists)
Christian Kofane on the bench (5 goals, 3 assists)
Robert Andrich on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)

FC Augsburg

3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.03
Full strength squad available

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.70
+0.70
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    FC Augsburg: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (4 of 8 total)

  • 2
    Bayer 04 Leverkusen with Jarell Quansah: 1.5 goals/90 min. Without: 3.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Bayer 04 Leverkusen: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

52%

Draw

26%

Away Win

22%

Goals

Over 1.5

81%

Under 1.5

19%

Over 2.5

57%

Under 2.5

43%

Over 3.5

34%

Under 3.5

66%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

78%

Away or Draw

48%

No Draw

74%

Both Score

Yes

58%

No

42%

Key Factors
  • Bayer 04 Leverkusen's home strength (averaging 2.0 goals scored, 0.94 goals conceded) meets FC Augsburg's high away vulnerability (averaging 2.25 goals conceded)
  • Bayer 04 Leverkusen is in better form with 2 consecutive wins, compared to FC Augsburg who remained winless in their last 5 games
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a home win with a 52% probability
Risk Factors
  • Goalkeeper Mark Flekken of Bayer 04 Leverkusen shows a declining form trend with an average rating of 6.38 in the last 5 games
  • Goalkeeper Finn Dahmen of FC Augsburg shows a declining form trend with an average rating of 6.13 in the last 5 games
  • FC Augsburg concedes a high average of 2.25 goals per game away from home
Overview

Bayer 04 Leverkusen (5th place, 52 points) host FC Augsburg (10th place, 33 points) at the BayArena

The Bundesliga match is on April 18, 2026, 3:30 PM

Leverkusen are fighting for international spots, while Augsburg are in mid-table

Form

The hosts' form (DLDWW) shows 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss from the last 5 games across all competitions

Bayer 04 Leverkusen has achieved 2 consecutive wins recently

FC Augsburg (LLLDD) recorded 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses in their last 5 matches

The away team has achieved 2 consecutive draws recently

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Bayer 04 Leverkusen scores an average of 2.03 goals and concedes 1.34 goals per season

At home, they average 2.0 goals scored and only 0.94 goals conceded per game

FC Augsburg scores an average of 1.24 goals and concedes 1.83 goals per match

Away from home, the average is 1.25 goals scored and a high 2.25 goals conceded per game

An average of 3.0 goals per game are scored at the BayArena

In 4 out of 5 games at the BayArena, both teams scored, while 1 out of 5 games had over 2.5 goals

Head-to-Head

In 5 head-to-head matches, Bayer 04 Leverkusen led with 4 wins compared to 1 win for FC Augsburg

The goal difference is 7:3 in favor of Bayer 04 Leverkusen

FC Augsburg won the last encounter on December 6, 2025, with a score of 2:0

Key Players

For Bayer 04 Leverkusen, Alejandro Grimaldo (8 goals, 7 assists) showed a season average rating of 7.44 and a rating of 7.97 in the last 5 games with a rising form trend

Patrik Schick (10 goals, 3 assists) has a season average rating of 6.98 and 7.12 in the last 5 games, his form is stable

Aleix GarcĆ­a (2 goals, 6 assists) achieved a season average rating of 7.36 and 7.28 in the last 5 games, his form is stable

For FC Augsburg, Alexis Claude-Maurice (5 goals, 5 assists) showed a season average rating of 7.1 and a rating of 6.76 in the last 5 games with a declining form trend

Fabian Rieder (4 goals, 3 assists) has a season average rating of 6.86 and 7.01 in the last 5 games, his form is stable

Robin Fellhauer (2 goals, 2 assists) achieved a season average rating of 6.83 and 6.83 in the last 5 games, his form is stable

Goalkeepers

Mark Flekken, goalkeeper for Bayer 04 Leverkusen, made 20 season appearances and kept 8 clean sheets

His season average rating is 6.8, with his form slightly declining recently (6.38 in the last 5 games)

Finn Dahmen, goalkeeper for FC Augsburg, made 29 season appearances and achieved 0 away clean sheets

His season average rating is 6.72, with a recently declining form trend (6.13 in the last 5 games)

Influences

The BayArena is a home fortress for Bayer 04 Leverkusen, who score an average of 2.0 goals and concede only 0.94 goals at home

FC Augsburg is more vulnerable away, conceding an average of 2.25 goals per game

BayArena statistics show an average of 3.0 goals per game

In 4 out of 5 of the last games at the BayArena, both teams scored, but only 1 out of 5 had over 2.5 goals

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