Bundesliga
Borussia Mönchengladbach - FSV Mainz 05
04/19/2026, 05:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.4
2.4
1.0
1:1
14%1:0
11%0:0
11%2:0
9%2:1
9%What influences the xG?
Borussia Mönchengladbach
FSV Mainz 05
League
The Lab
- 1FSV Mainz 05: first goal in 5 of 7 games (71%)
- 2FSV Mainz 05: 5 wins in 5 games with xG above 1.0 (100% win rate)
- 3Borussia Mönchengladbach: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (3 of 8 total)
- 4FSV Mainz 05 with Kacper Potulski: 4.4 goals/90 min. Without: 0.7 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)
- 5Borussia Mönchengladbach: 71% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
44%
Draw
31%
Away Win
25%
Goals
Over 1.5
70%
Under 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
42%
Under 2.5
58%
Over 3.5
21%
Under 3.5
79%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
75%
Away or Draw
56%
No Draw
69%
Both Score
Yes
48%
No
52%
Key Factors
- The absence of Franck Honorat (23% of usual assists missing) weakens Gladbach's offense
- Both teams have recently shown a counter-attacking style of play with average possession under 45%
- The mathematical analysis sees Borussia Mönchengladbach as favorites with a 44% probability
Risk Factors
- FSV Mainz 05 had only 3 days of rest since their last match
- Limited data available for duels in the last 5 games
- The history of head-to-head matches shows a balanced picture
Overview
Borussia Mönchengladbach (15th place, 30 points) host FSV Mainz 05 (10th place, 33 points) at Stadion im Borussia-Park. The Bundesliga match takes place on April 19, 2026, 7:30 PM. Both teams are fighting for crucial points to stay clear of the relegation zone or reduce the gap to the upper half of the table.
Form
Borussia Mönchengladbach's form in the last five matches is LWDDL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss). The team recorded 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses. Their last encounter ended in a loss.
FSV Mainz 05 comes into the match with WWWLL form, consisting of 3 wins and 2 losses. Their last two games both ended in losses, indicating a declining trend. In direct comparison, Mainz's current form with 3 wins is better than Gladbach's 1 win, although both teams suffered recent defeats.
Statistics
Borussia Mönchengladbach averages 1.21 goals scored per game this season and concedes 1.69 goals. At home, they average 1.2 goals and 1.53 goals conceded per home game. Gladbach kept 10 clean sheets this season.
FSV Mainz 05 also averages 1.21 goals scored per game this season but concedes 1.52 goals. Away from home, the average is 1.2 goals scored and 1.73 goals conceded per away game. Mainz recorded 3 clean sheets this season. In 2 of 5 matches at Stadion im Borussia-Park, both teams scored, and in 2 of 5 matches, more than 2.5 goals were scored. On average, 2.4 goals are scored in Gladbach's home games.
Head-to-Head
In the previous 5 head-to-head matches, there was a balanced record with 1 win each for Borussia Mönchengladbach and FSV Mainz 05, and 3 draws. Gladbach scored 6 goals, while Mainz scored 7. The last encounter on December 5, 2025, was won by Borussia Mönchengladbach with a 1-0 scoreline. Historically, neither team has been dominant.
Key Players
For Borussia Mönchengladbach, key attacking players include Haris Tabakovic (11 goals, 2 assists this season) and Jens Castrop (3 goals, 2 assists this season). Jens Castrop shows rising form with 2 goals and 2 assists in the last 5 games. Defender Kevin Diks contributed 4 goals, but his form is declining.
On the FSV Mainz 05 side, Nadiem Amiri is the top scorer with 10 goals and 2 assists, but shows declining form. Paul Nebel (4 goals, 1 assist) and Phillip Tietz (3 goals, 2 assists) are in rising form, both scoring 2 goals in their last 5 appearances.
Goalkeepers
Moritz Nicolas is the goalkeeper for Borussia Mönchengladbach, making 29 appearances this season and keeping 10 clean sheets. For FSV Mainz 05, Daniel Batz has played in 17 games and recorded 3 clean sheets. Nicolas has significantly more clean sheets.
Influences
Matches at Stadion im Borussia-Park average 2.4 goals per game. In 2 out of 5 matches, both teams scored, and in 2 out of 5 matches, over 2.5 goals were scored. The playing surface is grass. Borussia Mönchengladbach scores an average of 1.2 goals at home and concedes 1.53. FSV Mainz 05 scores 1.2 goals away and concedes an average of 1.73.