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Bundesliga

FC Union Berlin - VfL Wolfsburg

04/18/2026, 01:30 PM

1 : 2
Expected Goals
FC Union Berlin
1.8
Total xG
2.7
VfL Wolfsburg
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

2:0

10%

2:1

10%

3:0

6%

3:1

6%
What influences the xG?
FUBVW

FC Union Berlin

5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.13
Declining form (0.8 vs 1.2 season average)
-0.13
Defensive strength (1.8 conceded vs 1.8 league avg)
+0.10
Standings advantage (pos 11 vs 17, 6 places gap)
+0.05
Attack weakness (0.77x league average)
+0.04
Derrick Köhn on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists)
Stanley Nsoki on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists)
Strong home record (1.5 vs 1.2 goals/match)

VfL Wolfsburg

Defensive weakness (2.2 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
+0.79
Attack weakness (0.71x league average)
-0.65
Standings disadvantage (pos 17 vs 11, 6 places gap)
-0.06
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.04
Saël Kumbedi on the bench (0 goals, 5 assists)
Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.3 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.70
+0.70
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    FC Union Berlin with Tim Skarke: 2.7 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    VfL Wolfsburg with Maximilian Arnold: 4.3 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)

  • 3
    VfL Wolfsburg: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 4
    FC Union Berlin: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

  • 5
    VfL Wolfsburg: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

55%

Draw

26%

Away Win

19%

Goals

Over 1.5

77%

Under 1.5

23%

Over 2.5

52%

Under 2.5

48%

Over 3.5

30%

Under 3.5

70%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

81%

Away or Draw

45%

No Draw

74%

Both Score

Yes

53%

No

47%

Key Factors
  • Form: VfL Wolfsburg lost their last 3 games and is winless in the last 5, indicating weak current form
  • Defensive weakness: Wolfsburg concedes an average of 2.62 goals per away game, while Union Berlin scores 1.12 goals at home
  • Pipeline prediction: Mathematical analysis shows a home win for Union Berlin with 55% probability
Risk Factors
  • FC Union Berlin's goal production is stagnant (0.8 goals in recent games) compared to the season average (1.2 goals)
  • VfL Wolfsburg's goal production is stagnant (1.2 goals in recent games) compared to the season average (1.3 goals)
  • VfL Wolfsburg had only 7 days rest since their last match
Overview

FC Union Berlin (11th place, 32 points) hosts VfL Wolfsburg (17th place, 21 points) at Stadion An der Alten Försterei

Bundesliga match on April 18, 2026, 3:30 PM

Union Berlin is in the mid-table, while Wolfsburg is in a relegation battle

Union aims to close the gap to the upper mid-table, VfL Wolfsburg fights for crucial points against relegation

Form

FC Union Berlin shows the form L-W-D-L-L (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss) in their last five matches

The team achieved 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses in these five games

VfL Wolfsburg presents with the form L-D-L-L-L

Wolfsburg failed to secure a win in their last five matches, recording 1 draw and 4 losses

Currently, Union Berlin has a streak of 1 loss, while Wolfsburg has suffered 3 consecutive losses

Statistics

Union Berlin scores an average of 1.14 goals per game and concedes 1.72 goals per game this season

At home, Union Berlin scores an average of 1.12 goals and concedes 1.29 goals per home game

VfL Wolfsburg has a season average of 1.34 goals scored and 2.24 goals conceded per game

Away from home, Wolfsburg scores an average of 1.38 goals and concedes 2.62 goals per away game

Union Berlin kept a clean sheet in 6 games, Wolfsburg in 1 game

Both teams scored in 17 of Union Berlin's games, and in 22 of Wolfsburg's games

At Stadion An der Alten Försterei, an average of 2.6 goals are scored per game

There, both teams scored in 3 out of 5 matches, and more than 2.5 goals were scored in 2 out of 5 matches

Head-to-Head

There have been a total of 5 head-to-head matches between the two teams

Union Berlin won 2 of these encounters, VfL Wolfsburg won 3

The goal difference is 4:6 in favor of VfL Wolfsburg

The last match on December 06, 2025, ended with a 1:3 victory for VfL Wolfsburg

VfL Wolfsburg was the most recent winner in this pairing

Key Players

For Union Berlin, Andrej Ilic is an important offensive player with 2 goals and 8 assists in 27 season appearances, his form is stable

Ilyas Ansah recorded 5 goals and 2 assists in 28 season appearances, but his form is declining

Rani Khedira contributed 5 goals and 1 assist in 28 season appearances, his form shows a declining trend

For VfL Wolfsburg, Mohamed Amoura scored 8 goals and 3 assists in 26 season appearances, his form is declining

Christian Eriksen with 3 goals and 6 assists in 26 season appearances shows a rising form with 2 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 games

Dzenan Pejcinovic contributed 6 goals in 25 season appearances, his form is stable

Goalkeepers

FC Union Berlin's goalkeeper, Frederik Rönnow, made 28 season appearances with an average rating of 6.7

Union Berlin recorded 6 clean sheets this season

Kamil Grabara, VfL Wolfsburg's goalkeeper, played in 29 season appearances and has an average rating of 6.86

Wolfsburg managed to keep 1 clean sheet this season

Influences

Union Berlin scores 1.12 goals at home and concedes 1.29 goals on average

At Stadion An der Alten Försterei, an average of 2.6 goals are scored per game

In 3 out of 5 matches at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, both teams scored

In 2 out of 5 matches at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, more than 2.5 goals were scored

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