🇩🇪

Bundesliga

FC Köln - Bayer 04 Leverkusen

04/25/2026, 01:30 PM

1 : 2
Expected Goals
FC Köln
1.5
Total xG
2.9
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
1.4
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:1

9%

1:2

8%

2:0

6%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
FKB0L

FC Köln

3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
+0.16
Rising form (2 vs 1.5 season average)
+0.16
Standings disadvantage (pos 12 vs 6, 6 places gap)
-0.09
Ragnar Ache not in squad (7 goals, 4 assists)
Jan Thielmann on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists)
12% of goal output missing (only 89% available)

Bayer 04 Leverkusen

3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (2.2 goals/match)
+0.10
Standings advantage (pos 6 vs 12, 6 places gap)
+0.04
Christian Kofane not in squad (5 goals, 3 assists)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.71
+0.71
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    FC Köln with Luca Waldschmidt: 7.4 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Bayer 04 Leverkusen with Ezequiel Fernández: 5.2 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    FC Köln: 3 comebacks in 8 games after trailing past minute 75 (3 points rescued)

  • 4
    FC Köln: 70% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 5
    Bayer 04 Leverkusen: 70% of xG value comes in the first half (last 8 games with xG data)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

38%

Draw

28%

Away Win

35%

Goals

Over 1.5

80%

Under 1.5

20%

Over 2.5

55%

Under 2.5

45%

Over 3.5

33%

Under 3.5

67%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

65%

Away or Draw

62%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

60%

No

40%

Key Factors
  • FC Köln's Form: FC Köln is unbeaten in five games and has shown improved offense recently with an average of 2.0 goals, compared to their season average of 1.5
  • Bayer 04 Leverkusen's Offensive Strength: Leverkusen averages 2.0 goals per game this season and showed positive form in their last five matches with 2.2 goals on average, while maintaining ball possession dominance (62% possession)
  • Head-to-Head Record: Bayer 04 Leverkusen has won the last four direct encounters against FC Köln, achieving a 10:2 goal difference, underscoring historical dominance
Risk Factors
  • High-scoring Games in Köln: The history at the RheinEnergieStadion shows an average of 4.0 goals in the last five games, with "Both Teams To Score" and "Over 2.5 Goals" always occurring, indicating a potentially open match
  • Bayer 04 Leverkusen's Defensive Weakness: Although offensively strong, Bayer 04 Leverkusen conceded an average of 2.0 goals in recent games, higher than their season average of 1.37
  • Köln's Draw Streak: FC Köln drew four of their last five matches, indicating difficulty in converting close games into wins
Overview

FC Köln (12th place, 31 points) host Bayer 04 Leverkusen (6th place, 52 points) at the RheinEnergieStadion for a Bundesliga match on April 25, 2026, 3:30 PM

Leverkusen is fighting for an international spot, while Köln is in the middle of the table

The mathematical analysis predicts a close game with a home win probability of 38%, a draw of 28%, and an away win of 35% for Leverkusen

Form

FC Köln is unbeaten in their last five matches, recording one win and four draws (D-D-D-W-D)

Most recently, Köln drew 1-1 against St. Pauli away and defeated Werder Bremen at home with a 3-1 score

Bayer 04 Leverkusen has two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five games (L-D-W-W-L)

Leverkusen lost their last match 1-2 at home against FC Augsburg, following a 1-0 away win against Borussia Dortmund

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

FC Köln has scored an average of 1.47 goals per game this season and conceded an average of 1.7 goals

Leverkusen is more offensively potent with an average of 2.0 goals per game, conceding 1.37 goals

Köln has achieved three clean sheets, while Leverkusen has eight

At the RheinEnergieStadion, the last five games have seen an average of 4.0 goals per match

In all these five stadium games, both teams scored and there were over 2.5 goals

The overall match is predicted to have a 60% probability for "Both Teams To Score" and 55% for "Over 2.5 Goals"

Head-to-Head

In the four head-to-head encounters over the last two years, FC Köln has not secured a single victory against Bayer 04 Leverkusen

Leverkusen won all four matches, achieving a goal difference of 10:2

The last meeting on December 13, 2025, ended with a 2-0 home victory for Bayer 04 Leverkusen

The record clearly shows the visitors' dominance

Key Players

For FC Köln, Said El Mala (11 goals, 4 assists, Avg. 6.77), Jakub Kamiński (7 goals, 3 assists, Avg. 7.12) and Eric Martel (2 goals, 2 assists, Avg. 6.89) are key players

Additionally, Ragnar Ache (7 goals, 4 assists) and Jan Thielmann (3 goals, 1 assist) are not in the lineup

For Bayer 04 Leverkusen, Alejandro Grimaldo (8 goals, 7 assists, Avg. 7.47), Patrik Schick (11 goals, 3 assists, Avg. 7.01) and Aleix García (2 goals, 6 assists, Avg. 7.39) stand out

Goalkeepers

Marvin Schwäbe is FC Köln's goalkeeper with an average rating of 6.91 and three clean sheets this season

Janis Blaswich is in goal for Bayer 04 Leverkusen, holding an average rating of 7.11 in his appearances, with Leverkusen achieving a total of eight clean sheets this season

Influences

The RheinEnergieStadion, with a grass surface, is known for high-scoring games

In the last five matches at the stadium, an average of 4.0 goals were scored

In all these matches, both teams scored and the 2.5 goals mark was exceeded

FC Köln scores an average of 1.47 goals at home and concedes 1.32 goals

Bayer 04 Leverkusen scores an average of 1.93 goals away and concedes 1.71 goals

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.