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Bundesliga

Borussia Dortmund - SC Freiburg

04/26/2026, 03:30 PM

4 : 0
Expected Goals
Borussia Dortmund
1.8
Total xG
2.7
SC Freiburg
0.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

2:0

11%

2:1

10%

3:0

7%

3:1

6%
What influences the xG?
BDSF

Borussia Dortmund

Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.8 league avg)
-0.45
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
-0.14
Declining form (1.6 vs 2.1 season average)
-0.14
Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 8, 6 places gap)
+0.05
Attack strength (1.26x league average)
+0.01
Daniel Svensson on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists)

SC Freiburg

Attack weakness (0.64x league average)
-0.83
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)
+0.16
Rising form (2.2 vs 1.7 season average)
+0.16
Standings disadvantage (pos 8 vs 2, 6 places gap)
-0.06
Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
-0.04
Johan Manzambi not in squad (5 goals, 2 assists)
Yuito Suzuki not in squad (4 goals, 3 assists)
Matthias Ginter not in squad (2 goals, 4 assists)
Niklas Beste on the bench (1 goals, 3 assists)
Philipp Treu on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists)
Weak away record (1 vs 1.7 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.70
+0.70
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    SC Freiburg: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)

  • 2
    Borussia Dortmund with Karim Adeyemi: 4.1 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    SC Freiburg: 5 wins in 6 games with xG above 1.0 (83% win rate)

  • 4
    Borussia Dortmund: 78% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 5
    SC Freiburg: 6 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

58%

Draw

26%

Away Win

16%

Goals

Over 1.5

76%

Under 1.5

24%

Over 2.5

50%

Under 2.5

50%

Over 3.5

28%

Under 3.5

72%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

84%

Away or Draw

42%

No Draw

74%

Both Score

Yes

50%

No

50%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis indicates a clear favorite role for Borussia Dortmund with 58%
  • Borussia Dortmund shows strong home performance with an average of 2.06 goals scored and 0.88 goals conceded
  • SC Freiburg is in strong form with 4 wins in their last 5 games and plays a counter-attacking style
Risk Factors
  • SC Freiburg concedes an average of 2.55 goals per away game
  • Borussia Dortmund's goal production is declining, averaging 1.6 goals in recent games compared to their season average of 2.1 goals
Overview

Borussia Dortmund (2nd place, 64 points) host SC Freiburg (8th place, 43 points) at Signal Iduna Park

The Bundesliga match takes place on April 26, 2026, 4:30 PM

Dortmund are fighting for top positions, while Freiburg are contending for European qualification spots

Form

Borussia Dortmund's form in their last five matches across all competitions is WWWLL (3 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses)

Their last two matches ended in a loss

SC Freiburg's form is LWWWW (4 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss)

Freiburg has won their last four matches and shows a strong rising form trend

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Borussia Dortmund averages 2.03 goals scored and 1.03 goals conceded per game

At home, they average 2.06 goals scored and only 0.88 goals conceded

Dortmund kept 13 clean sheets this season

Both teams scored in 16 matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 17 matches

SC Freiburg averages 1.47 goals scored and 1.60 goals conceded

Away from home, their defense is more vulnerable, conceding an average of 2.55 goals per game while scoring 1.45 goals

Freiburg recorded 6 clean sheets, both teams scored in 18 matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 19 matches

At Signal Iduna Park, there has been an average of 3.0 goals per game

Both teams scored in 2 out of 5 matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 2 out of 5 matches

Head-to-Head

In five head-to-head matches, Borussia Dortmund dominated with 4 wins and 1 draw

SC Freiburg has not won any of these encounters

The goal difference is clearly 16:4 in favor of Dortmund

The last match on December 14, 2025, ended in a 1:1 draw

The home team has been recently dominant in these direct encounters

Key Players

Key players for Borussia Dortmund include Serhou Guirassy (14 goals, 2 assists in 29 games), Julian Ryerson (13 assists in 27 games) and Nico Schlotterbeck (season average rating 7.31)

For SC Freiburg, Igor Matanovic (8 goals, 1 assist in 27 games), Vincenzo Grifo (7 goals, 3 assists in 29 games) and Maximilian Eggestein (3 goals, 1 assist in 30 games) are crucial

Not nominated for Dortmund is Daniel Svensson (2G/2A)

For Freiburg, Johan Manzambi (5G/2A), Yuito Suzuki (4G/3A), Matthias Ginter (2G/4A), Niklas Beste (1G/3A) and Philipp Treu (1G/2A) are not in the lineup

Goalkeepers

Borussia Dortmund's goalkeeper Gregor Kobel recorded 13 clean sheets this season

Noah Atubolu, SC Freiburg's goalkeeper, achieved 6 clean sheets in the current season

Influences

Borussia Dortmund benefits from a strong home advantage, averaging 2.06 home goals and only 0.88 goals conceded

SC Freiburg appears vulnerable away from home, conceding an average of 2.55 goals

Signal Iduna Park sees an average of 3.0 goals per game

In 2 out of 5 matches, both teams scored, and in 2 out of 5 matches, over 2.5 goals were scored

The playing surface is grass

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