🇩🇪

Bundesliga

VfB Stuttgart - Werder Bremen

04/26/2026, 01:30 PM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
VfB Stuttgart
1.6
Total xG
2.5
Werder Bremen
0.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:0

11%

2:1

10%

3:0

6%

1:2

5%
What influences the xG?
VSWB

VfB Stuttgart

Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.8 league avg)
-0.36
Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 15, 10 places gap)
+0.08
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)
+0.06
Chris Führich on the bench (6 goals, 6 assists)
Ramon Hendriks on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)

Werder Bremen

Attack weakness (0.8x league average)
-0.65
Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 5, 10 places gap)
-0.10
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.00
Justin Njinmah on the bench (5 goals, 0 assists)
Marco Grüll not in squad (3 goals, 1 assists)
Weak away record (1 vs 1.2 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.70
+0.70
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Werder Bremen: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (5 of 8 total)

  • 2
    Werder Bremen: 80% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 3
    VfB Stuttgart with Chema Andrés: 6 goals/90 min. Without: 1.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Werder Bremen with Senne Lynen: 1.9 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 5
    Werder Bremen: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

53%

Draw

28%

Away Win

19%

Goals

Over 1.5

74%

Under 1.5

26%

Over 2.5

47%

Under 2.5

53%

Over 3.5

25%

Under 3.5

75%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

81%

Away or Draw

47%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

50%

No

50%

Key Factors
  • Mathematical Analysis: The pipeline prediction indicates a home win with 53% probability, supported by Stuttgart's strong season standing (5th place versus 15th place)
  • Matchup Advantage: Stuttgart's offensive home strength (averaging 2 goals per home game) contrasts with Bremen's defensive vulnerability away (averaging 1.8 goals conceded per away game)
  • Tactical Strength: VfB Stuttgart showed offensive dominance in their last five games with an average of 7.0 shots on target, while Werder Bremen recorded only 4.6 shots on target on average
Risk Factors
  • Defensive Vulnerability: Stuttgart's recent defensive performance shows a decline, with an average of 2.0 goals conceded in recent matches compared to a season average of 1.4
  • Inconsistent Form: Both teams display fluctuating form in their last five games (Stuttgart LWLWL, Bremen LWLLW), which could lead to some unpredictability
  • Even H2H Record: The head-to-head record is even, which could pose a challenge for Stuttgart despite current league positions
Overview

VfB Stuttgart (5th place, 56 points) hosts Werder Bremen (15th place, 31 points) at the MHPArena. The Bundesliga match is on April 26, 2026, 3:30 PM. Stuttgart is fighting for international spots, while Bremen is battling against relegation.

Form

VfB Stuttgart has shown inconsistent form in their last five matches with LWLWL (2 wins, 0 draws, 3 losses). Recently, they had a 2-4 loss against Bayern and a 4-0 win against Hamburger SV. Werder Bremen also shows a form of LWLLW (2 wins, 0 draws, 3 losses). In their last match, Bremen celebrated a 3-1 win against Hamburger SV, preceded by a 1-3 loss against Köln. (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Statistics

VfB Stuttgart is offensively strong this season with an average of 2.07 goals per game and a solid defense conceding 1.4 goals per game. Stuttgart kept 11 clean sheets and had over 2.5 goals in 22 matches. At home, Stuttgart scores an average of 2 goals and concedes only 1.08 goals, with 8 home clean sheets. Werder Bremen scores an average of 1.17 goals per game and concedes 1.77 goals. Bremen kept 6 clean sheets and had over 2.5 goals in 17 matches. Away, Bremen scores 1.13 goals and concedes 1.8 goals, with 3 away clean sheets. At the MHPArena, the last five matches averaged 2.6 goals per game, with both teams scoring in 40% of games and 60% ending with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-Head

In the previous five head-to-head matches, the record is even. Both teams won two games each, and one match ended in a draw. VfB Stuttgart scored 10 goals, while Werder Bremen scored 6 goals. The last encounter saw Werder Bremen win 4-0 on December 14, 2025.

Key Players

For VfB Stuttgart, key players include Deniz Undav (18 goals, 6 assists, 7.36 avg rating), Jamie Leweling (7 goals, 7 assists, 7.07 avg rating), and Bilal El Khannouss (4 goals, 4 assists, 7.2 avg rating). Chris Führic (6 goals/6 assists) and Ramon Hendriks (0 goals/2 assists) are not nominated for the starting lineup. For Werder Bremen, Jens Stage (9 goals, 2 assists, 7.14 avg rating), Romano Schmid (3 goals, 8 assists, 7.04 avg rating), and Cameron Puertas (1 goal, 2 assists, 6.92 avg rating) stand out. Justin Njinmah (5 goals/0 assists) and Marco Grüll (3 goals/1 assist) are not nominated for the starting lineup.

Goalkeepers

Alexander Nübel of VfB Stuttgart has recorded 11 clean sheets in 30 season appearances, including 8 at home, with an average rating of 7.01. Mio Backhaus of Werder Bremen made 28 season appearances and kept 6 clean sheets, with an average rating of 6.92.

Influences

The MHPArena, a grass surface, has seen an average of 2.6 goals per game in the last five matches. Both teams scored in 40% of games, and 60% ended with over 2.5 goals. VfB Stuttgart's home advantage is evident with an average of 2 goals scored and 1.08 goals conceded per home game. Werder Bremen concedes an average of 1.8 goals per away game.

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.