Bundesliga
Heidenheim - St. Pauli
04/25/2026, 01:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.5
2.7
1.2
1:1
14%2:1
9%1:2
7%2:0
7%2:2
5%What influences the xG?
Heidenheim
St. Pauli
League
The Lab
- 1St. Pauli: first goal in 5 of 7 games (71%)
- 2St. Pauli with Martijn Kaars: 2.8 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 3St. Pauli: 6 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
- 4Heidenheim with Julian Niehues: 2.5 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 5Heidenheim: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
41%
Draw
29%
Away Win
30%
Goals
Over 1.5
76%
Under 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
50%
Under 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
28%
Under 3.5
72%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
70%
Away or Draw
59%
No Draw
71%
Both Score
Yes
56%
No
44%
Key Factors
- Pipeline Prediction: The mathematical analysis predicts a home win with 41%
- Form and Offensive Trend: Heidenheim currently scores more frequently (1.8 goals) than their season average (1.1 goals)
- St. Pauli's Away Defensive Weakness: St. Pauli concedes an average of 1.92 goals per away game
Risk Factors
- St. Pauli's Stuttering Goal Production: Current goal production is low (0.6 goals), compared to their season average of 1.0 goals
- Vulnerable Defenses: Heidenheim concedes an average of 2.2 goals, and St. Pauli concedes 1.7 goals per game
Overview
Heidenheim (18th place, 19 points) hosts St. Pauli (16th place, 26 points) at the Voith-Arena
The Bundesliga match takes place on April 25, 2026, 3:30 PM
Both teams are fighting against relegation from the Bundesliga
Form
Heidenheim's form in their last 5 games is LDDWL, consisting of 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses
Their last match was a loss
St. Pauli's form over the last 5 games is LLDLD
They recorded 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses in this series
Their last game ended in a draw
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Heidenheim averages 1.1 goals scored per game and concedes an average of 2.2 goals
At home, they score 1.11 goals and concede 1.84 goals per home game
St. Pauli averages 0.87 goals scored per game and concedes 1.7 goals
Away from home, they score 0.85 goals and concede 1.92 goals per away game
The Voith-Arena has seen an average of 4.8 total goals in the last 5 matches
Both teams scored in 4 out of 5 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 4 out of 5 games
Head-to-Head
In the 3 previous head-to-head matches, Heidenheim secured 1 win and St. Pauli secured 2 wins
There were no draws
Heidenheim scored a total of 3 goals, while St. Pauli scored 4 goals
The last encounter on December 13, 2025, ended in a 2-1 victory for St. Pauli
Key Players
For Heidenheim, Marvin Pieringer (4 goals, 1 assist, avg 6.82), Patrick Mainka (2 goals, 2 assists, avg 6.98), and Budu Zivzivadze (3 goals, 0 assists, avg 6.63) are key players
Pieringer shows a rising form trend with 2 goals and 1 assist in 5 games
Zivzivadze also shows a rising form with 2 goals in 3 games
For St. Pauli, Danel Sinani (5 goals, 3 assists, avg 7.04), Andréas Hountondji (4 goals, 0 assists, avg 6.56), and Joel Chima Fujita (1 goal, 3 assists, avg 6.80) are crucial
Sinani has stable form, while Hountondji shows stable form with 0 goals and 0 assists in 5 games
Goalkeepers
Heidenheim's goalkeeper Diant Ramaj has recorded 0 clean sheets this season
St. Pauli's goalkeeper Nikola Vasilj has 5 clean sheets
Vasilj shows a declining form in the last 5 games with an average rating of 6.44
Influences
Heidenheim benefits from home advantage at the Voith-Arena
Their home goals of 1.11 and goals conceded of 1.84 per home game highlight this
The Voith-Arena has seen an average of 4.8 goals per match in the last 5 games, with a high probability of both teams scoring (80% BTTS) and over 2.5 goals (80% Over 2.5)