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Bundesliga

VfL Wolfsburg - Borussia Mönchengladbach

04/25/2026, 01:30 PM

0 : 0
Expected Goals
VfL Wolfsburg
1.5
Total xG
2.9
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1.4
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:1

9%

1:2

8%

2:0

6%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
VWBM

VfL Wolfsburg

3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
+0.01
Saël Kumbedi on the bench (0 goals, 5 assists)

Borussia Mönchengladbach

3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.07
Kevin Diks not in squad (4 goals, 0 assists)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.71
+0.71
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Borussia Mönchengladbach: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (3 of 8 total)

  • 2
    Borussia Mönchengladbach with Lukas Ullrich: 4 goals/90 min. Without: 1.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    VfL Wolfsburg with Kento Shiogai: 4.3 goals/90 min. Without: 2 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Borussia Mönchengladbach: 69% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 5
    VfL Wolfsburg: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

40%

Draw

27%

Away Win

33%

Goals

Over 1.5

81%

Under 1.5

19%

Over 2.5

56%

Under 2.5

44%

Over 3.5

34%

Under 3.5

66%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

67%

Away or Draw

60%

No Draw

73%

Both Score

Yes

61%

No

39%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis slightly favors VfL Wolfsburg with a home win probability of 39%
  • The Volkswagen Arena shows a high average of 3.0 goals per game in recent matches
  • Borussia Mönchengladbach displays a positive recent form trend, currently scoring more frequently (Avg 1.6 goals) than their season average (Avg 1.38 goals)
Risk Factors
  • VfL Wolfsburg concedes an average of 2.07 goals per home game this season and has never kept a clean sheet at home
  • Borussia Mönchengladbach allows an average of 1.86 goals per away game
  • VfL Wolfsburg has achieved only one win in their last five Bundesliga matches
Overview

VfL Wolfsburg (17th place, 24 points) host Borussia Mönchengladbach (13th place, 31 points) at the Volkswagen Arena

Bundesliga match on April 25, 2026, 3:30 PM

Wolfsburg is fighting against relegation, while Gladbach aims to stabilize in mid-table

Form

VfL Wolfsburg's form in the last five games (DLLLW) shows one win, one draw, and three losses

Borussia Mönchengladbach's form (WDDLD) includes one win, three draws, and one loss

Wolfsburg won their last match 2-1 away against Union Berlin

Mönchengladbach recently drew 1-1 at home against Mainz 05

(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Statistics

VfL Wolfsburg averages 1.37 season goals scored and 2.2 goals conceded per game

At home, Wolfsburg averages 1.4 goals scored and 2.07 goals conceded

Borussia Mönchengladbach averages 1.2 season goals scored and 1.67 goals conceded per game

Away from home, Gladbach averages 1.21 goals scored and 1.86 goals conceded

Wolfsburg kept only 1 clean sheet this season, and none at home

Gladbach recorded 10 clean sheets, 4 of which were away

The Volkswagen Arena recently recorded an average of 3.0 goals per game

In 80% of the games, both teams scored, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 80%

Head-to-Head

In five head-to-head matches, VfL Wolfsburg won three and Borussia Mönchengladbach won two

There have been no draws so far

Wolfsburg scored a total of 10 goals, Gladbach 6 goals in these encounters

The last meeting on December 13, 2025, ended with a 3-1 away win for VfL Wolfsburg

VfL Wolfsburg has shown to be the more dominant team in recent direct duels

Key Players

For VfL Wolfsburg, Mohamed Amoura is an important attacker with 8 goals and 3 assists this season

Christian Eriksen contributes to midfield with 3 goals and 7 assists and shows stable form

Dzenan Pejcinovic has contributed 7 season goals and has stable form

For Borussia Mönchengladbach, Haris Tabakovic is the top scorer with 11 goals and 2 assists

Jens Castrop shows rising form with 2 goals and 2 assists in the last 5 games

Franck Honorat is a crucial offensive player with 2 goals and 6 assists

Goalkeepers

Kamil Grabara made 30 season appearances for VfL Wolfsburg and has an average rating of 6.88

Wolfsburg kept only 1 clean sheet this season

Moritz Nicolas played 30 season games for Borussia Mönchengladbach and has an average rating of 7.11 with rising form

Gladbach recorded 10 clean sheets this season

Influences

The Volkswagen Arena is known for high-scoring games with an average of 3.0 goals per game in recent matches

In 80% of the games at this stadium, both teams scored and there were over 2.5 goals

VfL Wolfsburg scores an average of 1.4 goals at home and concedes 2.07 goals

Borussia Mönchengladbach scores an average of 1.21 goals away and concedes 1.86 goals

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