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Bundesliga

RB Leipzig - FC Union Berlin

04/24/2026, 06:30 PM

3 : 1
Expected Goals
RB Leipzig
2.6
Total xG
3.6
FC Union Berlin
1.0
Most Likely Scores

2:1

9%

3:1

8%

3:0

8%

4:1

5%

4:0

5%
What influences the xG?
RLFUB

RB Leipzig

Attack strength (1.42x league average)
+1.03
Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 11, 8 places gap)
+0.10
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)
+0.05
David Raum not in squad (3 goals, 6 assists)
Nicolas Seiwald on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
Strong home record (2.5 vs 2 goals/match)

FC Union Berlin

Attack weakness (0.58x league average)
-0.53
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.12
Declining form (0.8 vs 1.2 season average)
-0.12
Standings disadvantage (pos 11 vs 3, 8 places gap)
-0.09
Derrick Köhn on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.70
+0.70
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    FC Union Berlin: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (4 of 8 total)

  • 2
    RB Leipzig: 5 wins in 6 games with xG above 1.0 (83% win rate)

  • 3
    FC Union Berlin with Tim Skarke: 2.3 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    RB Leipzig with Ezechiel Banzuzi: 6.6 goals/90 min. Without: 1.9 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 5
    FC Union Berlin: 70% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

70%

Draw

18%

Away Win

12%

Goals

Over 1.5

88%

Under 1.5

12%

Over 2.5

69%

Under 2.5

31%

Over 3.5

47%

Under 3.5

53%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

88%

Away or Draw

30%

No Draw

82%

Both Score

Yes

59%

No

41%

Key Factors
  • Prediction dominance: The mathematical analysis clearly favors RB Leipzig with a 70% win probability
  • Form contrast: RB Leipzig is in top form with 4 consecutive wins, while Union Berlin is in a negative streak
  • Home strength vs. Away weakness: Leipzig scores almost 2 goals per game at home, while Union Berlin concedes an average of 2.33 goals away
Risk Factors
  • Away weakness: FC Union Berlin concedes an average of 2.33 goals per away game
  • Historical upset: The last head-to-head encounter resulted in a 3-1 away victory for FC Union Berlin
Overview

RB Leipzig (3rd place, 59 points) host FC Union Berlin (11th place, 32 points) at the Red Bull Arena. The Bundesliga match takes place on April 24, 2026, 8:30 PM. Leipzig are fighting for Champions League spots, while Union are in the mid-table. The mathematical analysis gives a clear favorite role to the home team with a 70% win probability, with predicted goals of 2.55 for Leipzig and 1.00 for Union Berlin

Form

RB Leipzig is in strong form (LWWWW), winning 4 of their last 5 matches. They have won their last 4 league games, most recently a 3-1 away victory against Eintracht Frankfurt. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

FC Union Berlin shows weaker form (WLDLL) with 3 losses and 1 draw in their last 4 matches. They recently lost 1-2 to VfL Wolfsburg and 1-3 to Heidenheim. Their form trend is negative

Statistics

RB Leipzig shows strong offensive power this season with an average of 1.97 goals per game, and 1.94 goals at home. Defensively, they concede an average of 1.23 goals per game, and only 1.0 goal at home. The team kept 11 clean sheets and over 2.5 goals were scored in 20 matches. RB Leipzig consistently scores around 2.1 goals per game.

FC Union Berlin averages 1.13 goals per game and 1.17 goals in away matches. Their defense is more vulnerable, conceding an average of 1.73 goals per game and 2.33 goals per away game. The team recorded 6 clean sheets and over 2.5 goals were scored in 17 matches. Union Berlin's goal production is stagnant at 0.8 goals per game, compared to a season average of 1.2.

At the Red Bull Arena, the last 5 matches saw an average of 2.0 goals per game. Both teams scored in 1 of 5 matches, and more than 2.5 goals were scored in 2 of 5 matches

Head-to-Head

In 5 previous head-to-head matches, RB Leipzig secured 2 wins, FC Union Berlin 1 win, and there were 2 draws. RB Leipzig scored a total of 6 goals, while FC Union Berlin scored 3 goals. The last encounter on December 12, 2025, ended in a 3-1 away victory for FC Union Berlin

Key Players

For RB Leipzig, Yan Diomande is a key player with 12 goals and 6 assists and a season rating of 7.34, as is Christoph Baumgartner with 12 goals and 8 assists and a rating of 7.19. Antonio Nusa contributed 4 goals and 4 assists with a rating of 7.08.

For FC Union Berlin, Andrej Ilic stands out with 2 goals and 9 assists. Rani Khedira has 5 goals and 1 assist, and Oliver Burke also has 5 goals and 1 assist

Goalkeepers

Maarten Vandevoordt is in goal for RB Leipzig, achieving an average rating of 6.92 in 9 season appearances. The team kept 6 clean sheets in home games.

For FC Union Berlin, Frederik Rönnow is the starting goalkeeper, having made 29 season appearances with an average rating of 6.70. The team kept 3 clean sheets in away games

Influences

RB Leipzig averages 1.94 goals at home and concedes only 1.0 goal per game, indicating a clear home advantage. The Red Bull Arena is known for an average of 2.0 goals per game. The last 5 matches at the stadium saw both teams scoring in 1 out of 5 cases and over 2.5 goals in 2 out of 5 matches

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