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Bundesliga

Hamburger SV - TSG Hoffenheim

04/25/2026, 04:30 PM

1 : 2
Expected Goals
Hamburger SV
1.1
Total xG
2.7
TSG Hoffenheim
1.5
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:2

9%

0:2

8%

2:1

7%

2:2

5%
What influences the xG?
HSTH

Hamburger SV

Attack weakness (0.58x league average)
-0.72
Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 6, 8 places gap)
-0.10
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.08
Declining form (1 vs 1.3 season average)
-0.08
Luka Vuskovic not in squad (5 goals, 0 assists)
Albert Sambi Lokonga on the bench (5 goals, 0 assists)
Miro Muheim not in squad (0 goals, 4 assists)
29% of goal output missing (only 85% available)

TSG Hoffenheim

3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.25
Declining form (1.2 vs 2 season average)
-0.25
Standings advantage (pos 6 vs 14, 8 places gap)
+0.06
Grischa Prömel on the bench (7 goals, 2 assists)
Alexander Prass on the bench (3 goals, 2 assists)
Weak away record (1.4 vs 2 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.70
+0.70
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Hamburger SV with Philip Otele: 3.3 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    TSG Hoffenheim: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 3
    Hamburger SV: 68% of xG value comes in the first half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 4
    TSG Hoffenheim: 42% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (5 of 12)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

27%

Draw

29%

Away Win

45%

Goals

Over 1.5

76%

Under 1.5

24%

Over 2.5

50%

Under 2.5

50%

Over 3.5

28%

Under 3.5

72%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

55%

Away or Draw

74%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

55%

No

45%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis predicts an away win for TSG Hoffenheim with 45%
  • TSG Hoffenheim holds a significantly higher position in the league table (6th vs 14th) and boasts a stronger offensive record this season (1.97 goals per game vs 1.1)
  • TSG Hoffenheim averaged 4.2 shots on target in their last 5 matches, compared to Hamburger SV's 3.4
Risk Factors
  • Hamburger SV averaged 3.4 shots on target in their last 5 matches
  • TSG Hoffenheim concedes an average of 1.86 goals per away game
Overview

Hamburger SV (14th place, 31 points) host TSG Hoffenheim (6th place, 54 points) at Volksparkstadion

Bundesliga match on April 25, 2026, 6:30 PM

The visitors are fighting for an international spot, while HSV is battling against relegation

Form

Hamburger SV's form across all competitions: DLDLL

TSG Hoffenheim's form across all competitions: DLLDW

In their last five league matches, HSV recorded three losses and two draws

TSG Hoffenheim achieved one win, two draws, and two losses in their last five games

Statistics

Hamburger SV averages 1.1 goals scored per game and concedes 1.6 goals per match

TSG Hoffenheim has a season average of 1.97 goals scored and 1.47 goals conceded per game

At home, HSV averages 1.11 goals scored and concedes 0.95 goals

Away from home, TSG Hoffenheim averages 2.0 goals scored and concedes 1.86 goals

In the last 5 matches at Volksparkstadion, an average of 2.6 goals were scored

Both teams scored in 80% of these matches, and 40% of them ended with over 2.5 goals

Head-to-Head

There has been 1 head-to-head match between these teams

The last encounter was won by TSG Hoffenheim with a score of 4:1 on December 13, 2025

TSG Hoffenheim dominated the most recent fixture

Key Players

For Hamburger SV, Fábio Vieira (5 goals, 5 assists, avg 7.1 rating), Ransford Königsdörffer (5 goals, 2 assists, avg 6.71 rating) and Robert Glatzel (2 goals, 2 assists, avg 6.66 rating) are key players

For TSG Hoffenheim, Andrej Kramaric (12 goals, 5 assists, avg 7.19 rating), Fisnik Asllani (9 goals, 7 assists, avg 7.01 rating) and Bazoumana Touré (3 goals, 8 assists, avg 6.92 rating) are notable

Goalkeepers

Daniel Heuer Fernandes is the goalkeeper for Hamburger SV with 30 season appearances and 6 clean sheets

Oliver Baumann is the goalkeeper for TSG Hoffenheim with 30 season appearances and 6 clean sheets

Both goalkeepers have recorded the same number of clean sheets this season

Influences

The Volksparkstadion recorded an average of 2.6 goals in the last 5 matches

Both teams scored in 80% of the games, and 40% of the games had over 2.5 goals

Hamburger SV scores an average of 1.11 goals at home and concedes 0.95 goals

TSG Hoffenheim scores an average of 2.0 goals away and concedes 1.86 goals

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